2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[NC US Geological Survice]

Mods, time to throttle this guy. We are likely within 10 days of significant effects to land in the NW Atl Basin. 

The seriousness has elevated and the maturity in the thread needs to step up. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

I post model runs.

[NorthHillsWx]

15 minutes ago, NC US Geological Survice said:

Mods, time to throttle this guy. We are likely within 10 days of significant effects to land in the NW Atl Basin. 

The seriousness has elevated and the maturity in the thread needs to step up. 

You can also choose to ignore certain posters in your profile settings. It has proven helpful on this site more than once. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Barry obviously loves weather. He doesn't bother me. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[RaleighNC]

great time to reduce staff at the NHC and reduce Hunter flights, huh? 

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, RaleighNC said:

great time to reduce staff at the NHC and reduce Hunter flights, huh? 

Trump’s proposed budget for fiscal 2026 does not appear to target the Hurricane Hunter program.  Staff also can be moved as needed, just like any other job that exists

[dbullsfan]

3 hours ago, RaleighNC said:

great time to reduce staff at the NHC and reduce Hunter flights, huh? 

Maybe the NHC can hire Barry to keep them up to date via all the social media post about Hurricanes. 

[TriPol]

Thank you Barry! Not all heroes wear capes.

[Floydbuster]

I think we see a major hurricane in the Atlantic sometime later this month, and likely a threat to land masses of the Caribbean or Western Atlantic. The MJO pattern looks set to give us a good burst just in time for late August.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I think we see a major hurricane in the Atlantic sometime later this month, and likely a threat to land masses of the Caribbean or Western Atlantic. The MJO pattern looks set to give us a good burst just in time for late August.

Let’s see how the next two waves preform. If they develop and help moisten the mdr its game time. Until then it’s follow the vertical instability to the subtropics. 

[GaWx]

 The latest Euro Weeklies (yesterday’s run) remain quite active vs active 20 year climo base ACE (>200%) through ~8/24. Then they cool down to close to active avg 8/25-31 (100%). The first stab at 9/1-7 is slightly below the active climo (80%). I wonder if this is MJO related.

 Regarding absolute ACE, the very active Aug 18-24 is the most active week through Sept 7. As per what I’ve recently posted, the EW progs did fairly well in general last year overall looking out several weeks when they were consistent for, say, 7 days in a row. They’ve been consistent regarding well above 20 year climo levels of activity for 8/11-8/24 for at least that long. 

 Regarding 8/25-31, they’ve been near that 20 year climo for 3 runs. So, I still want to see how the rest of this week’s runs look before giving too much weight to its 8/25-31. Of course, 9/1-7 is a total crap-shoot right now with that slightly below 20 year climo being just its first prog.

[GaWx]

CSU 8/6/25 update: 145 total ACE vs 140 in last month’s forecast and 122, which is 1991-2020 avg, and the new Euro seasonal’s ~155:

FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND
LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2025 We have maintained our forecast for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season, although noting lower-than-normal confidence with this outlook. Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic have anomalously warmed over the past few weeks and are now somewhat warmer than normal. Multiple indicators anticipate likely cool ENSO neutral conditions during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Warm sea surface temperatures and ENSO neutral conditions typically provide a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. The primary reason for the uncertainty in the outlook is the high observed Caribbean shear over recent weeks. Typically, high levels of Caribbean shear in June July are associated with less active hurricane seasons. We anticipate a slightly above- average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean for the remainder of the hurricane season.