2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[NC US Geological Survice]

Mods, time to throttle this guy. We are likely within 10 days of significant effects to land in the NW Atl Basin. 

The seriousness has elevated and the maturity in the thread needs to step up. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

I post model runs.

[NorthHillsWx]

15 minutes ago, NC US Geological Survice said:

Mods, time to throttle this guy. We are likely within 10 days of significant effects to land in the NW Atl Basin. 

The seriousness has elevated and the maturity in the thread needs to step up. 

You can also choose to ignore certain posters in your profile settings. It has proven helpful on this site more than once. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Barry obviously loves weather. He doesn't bother me. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[RaleighNC]

great time to reduce staff at the NHC and reduce Hunter flights, huh? 

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, RaleighNC said:

great time to reduce staff at the NHC and reduce Hunter flights, huh? 

Trump’s proposed budget for fiscal 2026 does not appear to target the Hurricane Hunter program.  Staff also can be moved as needed, just like any other job that exists

[dbullsfan]

3 hours ago, RaleighNC said:

great time to reduce staff at the NHC and reduce Hunter flights, huh? 

Maybe the NHC can hire Barry to keep them up to date via all the social media post about Hurricanes. 

[TriPol]

Thank you Barry! Not all heroes wear capes.

[Floydbuster]

I think we see a major hurricane in the Atlantic sometime later this month, and likely a threat to land masses of the Caribbean or Western Atlantic. The MJO pattern looks set to give us a good burst just in time for late August.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

I think we see a major hurricane in the Atlantic sometime later this month, and likely a threat to land masses of the Caribbean or Western Atlantic. The MJO pattern looks set to give us a good burst just in time for late August.

Let’s see how the next two waves preform. If they develop and help moisten the mdr its game time. Until then it’s follow the vertical instability to the subtropics. 

[GaWx]

 The latest Euro Weeklies (yesterday’s run) remain quite active vs active 20 year climo base ACE (>200%) through ~8/24. Then they cool down to close to active avg 8/25-31 (100%). The first stab at 9/1-7 is slightly below the active climo (80%). I wonder if this is MJO related.

 Regarding absolute ACE, the very active Aug 18-24 is the most active week through Sept 7. As per what I’ve recently posted, the EW progs did fairly well in general last year overall looking out several weeks when they were consistent for, say, 7 days in a row. They’ve been consistent regarding well above 20 year climo levels of activity for 8/11-8/24 for at least that long. 

 Regarding 8/25-31, they’ve been near that 20 year climo for 3 runs. So, I still want to see how the rest of this week’s runs look before giving too much weight to its 8/25-31. Of course, 9/1-7 is a total crap-shoot right now with that slightly below 20 year climo being just its first prog.