BarryStantonGBP Posted July 23 Author Share Posted July 23 muh wavebreaking stfu wish that Eric guy with a room temp iq was here so I could challenge his views Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 6 hours ago, RaleighNC said: John Burns Hello everyone. I am writing with sad news. My father, John Burns, who you know as your moderator jburns, passed away on Monday at the age of 77 after a battle with cancer that returned after he beat lymphoma in 2020. AmericanWX was really important to him, and I know he considered many of you to be friends. He became highly involved on this site after he suffered a heart attack about 15 years ago, and this became a key outlet for him and his love and impressive amateur knowledge of meteorology. Whenever there was going to be a storm in North Carolina, I had two sources to check: WRAL and my Dad. I remember him texting me before an ice storm was expected to hit Raleigh. No "hello," no "how are you." Just: "get a damn generator." He was absolutely never happier than when a snowstorm actually hit. He was known to drive hundreds of miles just to get into a blizzard. Thank you to all of you who made his later years fun and engaging. He loved it here. He loved arguing, he loved the weather, and he LOVED the ban hammer. John D. Burns Son of jburns Raleigh, NC Incredibly sad to hear this. Thank you for sharing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 7 hours ago, RaleighNC said: John Burns Hello everyone. I am writing with sad news. My father, John Burns, who you know as your moderator jburns, passed away on Monday at the age of 77 after a battle with cancer that returned after he beat lymphoma in 2020. AmericanWX was really important to him, and I know he considered many of you to be friends. He became highly involved on this site after he suffered a heart attack about 15 years ago, and this became a key outlet for him and his love and impressive amateur knowledge of meteorology. Whenever there was going to be a storm in North Carolina, I had two sources to check: WRAL and my Dad. I remember him texting me before an ice storm was expected to hit Raleigh. No "hello," no "how are you." Just: "get a damn generator." He was absolutely never happier than when a snowstorm actually hit. He was known to drive hundreds of miles just to get into a blizzard. Thank you to all of you who made his later years fun and engaging. He loved it here. He loved arguing, he loved the weather, and he LOVED the ban hammer. John D. Burns Son of jburns Raleigh, NC This one hurts JBurns was staff here and beloved. Dude was legit and we became close through the years. Loved weather, loved the board and unfortunately for us all, loved dad jokes! I’m going to miss the guy a lot. Thanks for the message John. RIP jburns. 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Ho Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 Fuck man RIP for real. Burns was a real one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 23 Share Posted July 23 Always appreciated what he brought to this forum. RIP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 Today’s Euro Weeklies had a large increase vs yesterday for the week covering 8/18-24. Yesterday’s run for 8/18-24: Today’s run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 From JB today fwiw: he likes to look at Euro AI ensemble members (ever since that product became available earlier this summer) vs EPS/GEFS and he’s also considering EPS’ MJO forecast: this period is before the increasingly active week that yesterday’s Euro Weeklies showedDay 15 06 z AI ends like this with a trough in the Tennessee Valley. and a spray of cyclones suggesting an east coast impact threat AI VV patterns in the 10-15 are bullish for the tropics which would mean a stronger rotation into phases 8,1,2,3 more so than the euro ensemble 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 17 hours ago, GaWx said: Today’s Euro Weeklies had a large increase vs yesterday for the week covering 8/18-24. Yesterday’s run for 8/18-24: Today’s run: I mean those two maps basically follow normal climatological patters of the Atlantic Ocean over many years from what I can remember really. I see nothing that screams we will not see normal to above normal hurricane activity this season. However, it screams East Coast impacts which was my thinking earlier last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 5 hours ago, GaWx said: From JB today fwiw: he likes to look at Euro AI ensemble members (ever since that product became available earlier this summer) vs EPS/GEFS and he’s also considering EPS’ MJO forecast: this period is before the increasingly active week that yesterday’s Euro Weeklies showedDay 15 06 z AI ends like this with a trough in the Tennessee Valley. and a spray of cyclones suggesting an east coast impact threat AI VV patterns in the 10-15 are bullish for the tropics which would mean a stronger rotation into phases 8,1,2,3 more so than the euro ensemble Euro AI relies on pattern analogs. Which Jb loves so I’m not at all surprised he has an affinity for it. To me, it looks dead until the 3rd week of August. Shear and dry air are still lurking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Thursday at 10:34 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:34 PM I think it’ll be quiet in general, but now that the wave train is starting to leave the station I think we do see 1 or 2 systems find a way to survive the trek across the Atlantic and develop into a TC before the 20th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Ho Posted Thursday at 11:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:02 PM GFS starting to wake up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Thursday at 11:29 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:29 PM 55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think it’ll be quiet in general, but now that the wave train is starting to leave the station I think we do see 1 or 2 systems find a way to survive the trek across the Atlantic and develop into a TC before the 20th. Yeah I was thinking 8/10-20 ish as the first "burst" of activity as well, but if you asked me back in May I would have said early August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Friday at 02:49 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:49 AM 5 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah I was thinking 8/10-20 ish as the first "burst" of activity as well, but if you asked me back in May I would have said early August. Yeah the tropical Atlantic even without big SAL this season is just so stable. Things point to another strongly backloaded season to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Friday at 02:57 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:57 AM 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah the tropical Atlantic even without big SAL this season is just so stable. Things point to another strongly backloaded season to me. Yeah agree, not sure where it's going tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Friday at 05:29 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:29 AM I think we’re still going to end up AN on the numbers, but slightly so. I think it’s a more classic second half rather than what we saw last year, with activity centering mid September through mid October rather than the season extending into November. It’s a small window, but in that 4-5 week window I think that’s all we’ll need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 05:43 AM Share Posted Friday at 05:43 AM 2025 through July 21st in N Hem had third lowest ACE for the date back to 1971 with it behind only 1977 and 1998. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 11:53 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:53 PM Euro Weeklies ACE for August 18-24 up to 140% of 2005-24 avg. Edit: Also note the green box in ATL is now larger than even the WPAC green box: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 01:54 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:54 AM https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1948861626939310217 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Saturday at 09:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:37 PM Today’s Euro Weeklies maintained an active Aug 18-24 with ~145% of 2005-24. That translates to ~13 of ACE being progged vs base of ~9. Should that week have ~13, that would imply the likelihood of an H somewhere in the basin. Where does this run imply would be the most likely general location of the track of this H? All highly speculative obviously but fwiw it suggests track may be from at or just N of N Leewards NW to either near Bermuda or W of that between Bermuda and NC and then recurving to between Cape Cod and 1000 miles E of there aiming toward Newfoundland. Midpoint of highest density of tracks starts at 20N, 60W. Then track points NW to 30N, 70W. Then NNE to 40N, 65W. Highest at risk from this prog ~Bermuda: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:15 PM The new Euro Weeklies have a notable increase in forecasted activity for two weeks earlier than the post above addresses, Aug 4-10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Sunday at 11:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:35 PM On 7/24/2025 at 7:29 PM, Torch Tiger said: Yeah I was thinking 8/10-20 ish as the first "burst" of activity as well, but if you asked me back in May I would have said early August. doh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted yesterday at 06:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:31 AM As hostile as the basin state has been for many weeks, the tropical wave at 40W sure is looking good tonight. Lower level vorticity has been increasing dramatically over the past 6 hours and the convection is some of the healthiest I’ve seen in the MDR. Will likely get sheared apart closer to the islands (and the fast background flow will make any consolidation difficult ), but it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 12:44 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:44 PM tutt 2025-2025 lest we forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 07:32 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 07:32 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 23 hours ago Author Share Posted 23 hours ago atlantic about to go off https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202507290000¶meter=Accumulated cyclone energy&valid_time=202509010000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago My rough estimate of ACE progged by today’s (7/29/25) Euro Weeklies: Aug 4-10: 3 Aug 11-17: 8 Aug 18-24: 11-12 Aug 25-31: 13-14 These 4 weeks would add to ~36, meaning a notably more active than active era normal for August should today’s EW verify closely. Since the active era began, only 6 Augusts (1995-6, 1998-2000, and 2004) had significantly >36 ACE, while 18 had significantly <36. That leaves 6 Augusts fairly close to 36 (say 31-41): 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2021, and 2023. After those 6 Augusts, how was each Sept vs 1995-2024 climo? 2005, 2010, 2021, and 2023 were active while 2007 was inactive and 2012 was near avg. How were the Octs? 2005, 2010, and 2012 were above avg while 2021 and 2023 were near avg and 2007 was quiet. Other than hoping for another 2007, this isn’t encouraging for someone who wants an inactive season, especially considering the progged weak La Niña per RONI. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 0Z UKMET fwiw has TCG/a TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 26.9N 78.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 06.08.2025 168 26.9N 78.3W 1014 27 ———— I’m getting slightly concerned with this as it’s coming from a currently active AEW that’s now in the E ATL based on what I’m seeing on the 0Z and earlier runs of the UKMET. The 0Z has this AEW move to the N Leewards vicinity at 96 and then form the TD at 168 in the far NW Bahamas. It is then recurving NNW around a strengthening Bermuda high and threatening the SE US mid to late next week with no sharp upper trough to allow a sharp enough recurve to protect the coast. I looked back and found a WNW moving distinct disturbance from this same E ATL AEW as far back as the 0Z 7/27 UKMET run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago The reason I said I was only getting “slightly concerned” in deference to the UKMET usually being conservative is that the 0Z UKMET is the only major 18Z/0Z (and I can now say 6Z for that matter) global with anything even close to a TD from this. Also, recent GFS/Euro/CMC ensemble runs have had almost nothing. Earlier UK runs had only a disturbance though distinct. One has to go back to yesterday’s 12Z CMC/JMA/ICON to find something close to a TD on any other global run from this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago 12 hours ago, GaWx said: My rough estimate of ACE progged by today’s (7/29/25) Euro Weeklies: Aug 4-10: 3 Aug 11-17: 8 Aug 18-24: 11-12 Aug 25-31: 13-14 These 4 weeks would add to ~36, meaning a notably more active than active era normal for August should today’s EW verify closely. Since the active era began, only 6 Augusts (1995-6, 1998-2000, and 2004) had significantly >36 ACE, while 18 had significantly <36. That leaves 6 Augusts fairly close to 36 (say 31-41): 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2021, and 2023. After those 6 Augusts, how was each Sept vs 1995-2024 climo? 2005, 2010, 2021, and 2023 were active while 2007 was inactive and 2012 was near avg. How were the Octs? 2005, 2010, and 2012 were above avg while 2021 and 2023 were near avg and 2007 was quiet. Other than hoping for another 2007, this isn’t encouraging for someone who wants an inactive season, especially considering the progged weak La Niña per RONI. it's 2017 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Followup: Unlike the 0Z, the 12Z UKMET has no TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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