2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[BarryStantonGBP]

muh wavebreaking

stfu

wish that Eric guy with a room temp iq was here so I could challenge his views

[mappy]

6 hours ago, RaleighNC said:

John Burns

Hello everyone. I am writing with sad news. My father, John Burns, who you know as your moderator jburns, passed away on Monday at the age of 77 after a battle with cancer that returned after he beat lymphoma in 2020. AmericanWX was really important to him, and I know he considered many of you to be friends. He became highly involved on this site after he suffered a heart attack about 15 years ago, and this became a key outlet for him and his love and impressive amateur knowledge of meteorology.

Whenever there was going to be a storm in North Carolina, I had two sources to check: WRAL and my Dad. I remember him texting me before an ice storm was expected to hit Raleigh. No "hello," no "how are you."  Just:  "get a damn generator." He was absolutely never happier than when a snowstorm actually hit. He was known to drive hundreds of miles just to get into a blizzard. 

Thank you to all of you who made his later years fun and engaging. He loved it here. He loved arguing, he loved the weather, and he LOVED the ban hammer.

John D. Burns
Son of jburns

Raleigh, NC
 

Incredibly sad to hear this. Thank you for sharing. 

[stormtracker]

7 hours ago, RaleighNC said:

John Burns

Hello everyone. I am writing with sad news. My father, John Burns, who you know as your moderator jburns, passed away on Monday at the age of 77 after a battle with cancer that returned after he beat lymphoma in 2020. AmericanWX was really important to him, and I know he considered many of you to be friends. He became highly involved on this site after he suffered a heart attack about 15 years ago, and this became a key outlet for him and his love and impressive amateur knowledge of meteorology.

Whenever there was going to be a storm in North Carolina, I had two sources to check: WRAL and my Dad. I remember him texting me before an ice storm was expected to hit Raleigh. No "hello," no "how are you."  Just:  "get a damn generator." He was absolutely never happier than when a snowstorm actually hit. He was known to drive hundreds of miles just to get into a blizzard. 

Thank you to all of you who made his later years fun and engaging. He loved it here. He loved arguing, he loved the weather, and he LOVED the ban hammer.

John D. Burns
Son of jburns

Raleigh, NC
 

This one hurts

JBurns was staff here and beloved.  Dude was legit and we became close through the years.  Loved weather, loved the board and unfortunately for us all, loved dad jokes!  I’m going to miss the guy a lot.  
 

Thanks for the message John.

RIP jburns. 

[Normandy Ho]

Fuck man RIP for real.  Burns was a real one 

[WxWatcher007]

Always appreciated what he brought to this forum. RIP.

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies had a large increase vs yesterday for the week covering 8/18-24.

Yesterday’s run for 8/18-24:

 

Today’s run:

[GaWx]

From JB today fwiw: he likes to look at Euro AI ensemble members (ever since that product became available earlier this summer) vs EPS/GEFS and he’s also considering EPS’ MJO forecast: this period is before the increasingly active week that yesterday’s Euro Weeklies showed

Day 15 06 z AI ends like this with a trough in the Tennessee Valley. 

and a spray of cyclones suggesting an east coast impact threat

AI VV patterns in the 10-15 are bullish for the tropics

which would mean a stronger rotation into phases 8,1,2,3

more so than the euro ensemble

[Kevin Reilly]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies had a large increase vs yesterday for the week covering 8/18-24.

Yesterday’s run for 8/18-24:

 

Today’s run:

I mean those two maps basically follow normal climatological patters of the Atlantic Ocean over many years from what I can remember really.  I see nothing that screams we will not see normal to above normal hurricane activity this season.  However, it screams East Coast impacts which was my thinking earlier last week.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

From JB today fwiw: he likes to look at Euro AI ensemble members (ever since that product became available earlier this summer) vs EPS/GEFS and he’s also considering EPS’ MJO forecast: this period is before the increasingly active week that yesterday’s Euro Weeklies showed

Day 15 06 z AI ends like this with a trough in the Tennessee Valley. 

and a spray of cyclones suggesting an east coast impact threat

AI VV patterns in the 10-15 are bullish for the tropics

which would mean a stronger rotation into phases 8,1,2,3

more so than the euro ensemble

Euro AI relies on pattern analogs. Which Jb loves so I’m not at all surprised he has an affinity for it. To me, it looks dead until the 3rd week of August. Shear and dry air are still lurking.

[WxWatcher007]

I think it’ll be quiet in general, but now that the wave train is starting to leave the station I think we do see 1 or 2 systems find a way to survive the trek across the Atlantic and develop into a TC before the 20th. 

[Normandy Ho]

GFS starting to wake up a bit 

[Torch Tiger]

55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think it’ll be quiet in general, but now that the wave train is starting to leave the station I think we do see 1 or 2 systems find a way to survive the trek across the Atlantic and develop into a TC before the 20th. 

Yeah I was thinking 8/10-20 ish as the first "burst" of activity as well, but if you asked me back in May I would have said early August.

[WxWatcher007]

5 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah I was thinking 8/10-20 ish as the first "burst" of activity as well, but if you asked me back in May I would have said early August.

Yeah the tropical Atlantic even without big SAL this season is just so stable. Things point to another strongly backloaded season to me.

[Torch Tiger]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah the tropical Atlantic even without big SAL this season is just so stable. Things point to another strongly backloaded season to me.

Yeah agree, not sure where it's going tbh

[WxWatcher007]

I think we’re still going to end up AN on the numbers, but slightly so. I think it’s a more classic second half rather than what we saw last year, with activity centering mid September through mid October rather than the season extending into November. It’s a small window, but in that 4-5 week window I think that’s all we’ll need. 

[GaWx]

 2025 through July 21st in N Hem had third lowest ACE for the date back to 1971 with it behind only 1977 and 1998.