2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Of course every day is a sunny day for this fella

 

 Hey Barry,

 57, a Houston area regular, is generous with his postings and is very knowledgable along with decades of experience with tropical forecasting. He runs his own tropical forecasting service. He’s one of the original regulars. So, for good reason, he’s very well respected and I’m glad he posts as much as he does. However, I do feel he tends to have a bit of a bearish lean in some of his public posts there. Again, imho as it’s subjective. And it’s by no means for nearly all posts. In addition, many times his bearish posts verify very well. I think that his desire to have quiet weekends sometimes influences his posts there toward the bear.
 

 Keep in mind that I prefer BB posters exhibit neither an explicit bearish nor an explicit bullish bias. I try my best to be perceived that way.

[BarryStantonGBP]

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Hey Barry,

 57, a Houston area regular, is generous with his postings and is very knowledgable along with decades of experience with tropical forecasting. He runs his own tropical forecasting service. He’s one of the original regulars. So, for good reason, he’s very well respected and I’m glad he posts as much as he does. However, I do feel he tends to have a bit of a bearish lean in some of his public posts there. Again, imho as it’s subjective. And it’s by no means for nearly all posts. In addition, many times his bearish posts verify very well. I think that his desire to have quiet weekends sometimes influences his posts there toward the bear.
 

 Keep in mind that I prefer BB posters exhibit neither an explicit bearish nor an explicit bullish bias. I try my best to be perceived that way.

He's way too bearish NGL

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

He's way too bearish NGL

Hey Barry,

 He’s in my list of posters with a bearish bias. If you took an avg of bull cat5 and bear 57, do you think they’d average neutral?

 Interesting fact: When baby boomer 57 joined there, Gen. Zer cat5 was near birth! Cat5 was born near the time that board was born. As you can see I called out bias in these two cases despite big age diffs.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Hey Barry,

 He’s in my list of posters with a bearish bias. If you took an avg of bull cat5 and bear 57, do you think they’d average neutral?

 Interesting fact: When baby boomer 57 joined there, Gen. Zer cat5 was near birth! Cat5 was born near the time that board was born. As you can see I called out bias in these two cases despite big age diffs.

cat5 imo is a realist

[BarryStantonGBP]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

Hey Barry,

 He’s in my list of posters with a bearish bias. If you took an avg of bull cat5 and bear 57, do you think they’d average neutral?

 Interesting fact: When baby boomer 57 joined there, Gen. Zer cat5 was near birth! Cat5 was born near the time that board was born. As you can see I called out bias in these two cases despite big age diffs.

gtfih 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

[BarryStantonGBP]

Also Eric Webb can shut up

i literally predicted a hurricane will landfall somewhere on the Atlantic on September 7th

and another on the 25th

[yoda]

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1947084436434301069

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

15 minutes ago, yoda said:

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1947084436434301069

 

A hurricane or TS will landfall somewhere in the Atlantic on September 7

hazelSODOFFton

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1947084436434301069

 

 Thanks, Yoda.
 So, this Andy Hazelton tweet is sort of agreeing with what Eric Webb just had said about an expected quiet August into early Sept. Note, however, that Andy said “I’m kinda of the same opinion that August may be quiet in the Atlantic”, which isn’t a forecast since August “may be quiet” in any year. A forecast would say something much more explicit like “August will be quiet”, “I expect August to be quiet”, or “August will likely be quiet”.

[Boston Bulldog]

My confidence is steadily growing that Barry Stanton GBP is CurlyHeadedBarrett’s (last year’s bizarre spammer) new account. The frequent abbreviations and copy-pasting of content from elsewhere as a form of bastardized “analysis” is uncanny. The first 3 posts in the entire thread are an excellent microcosm. Regardless, it makes the thread nearly unreadable.

On topics that matter, still nothing of note for the Atlantic for a while

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 hours ago, yoda said:

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1947084436434301069

 

Pretty much mirrors the sea surface temp profile from earlier. Having the subtropics warmer then the tropics destroys vertical instability in the MDR. The reason they think the season is weighted towards the second half is  climatological. Seasonally the subtropics will begin to cool faster then the tropics and return a more normal instability profile. 
Last year should have been a wake up call. Warmer water doesn’t automatically mean a hyperactive season. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pretty much mirrors the sea surface temp profile from earlier. Having the subtropics warmer then the tropics destroys vertical instability in the MDR. The reason they think the season is weighted towards the second half is  climatological. Seasonally the subtropics will begin to cool faster then the tropics and return a more normal instability profile. 
Last year should have been a wake up call. Warmer water doesn’t automatically mean a hyperactive season. 

Seems to be the new normal 

[Boston Bulldog]

5 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

My confidence is steadily growing that Barry Stanton GBP is CurlyHeadedBarrett’s (last year’s bizarre spammer) new account. The frequent abbreviations and copy-pasting of content from elsewhere as a form of bastardized “analysis” is uncanny. The first 3 posts in the entire thread are an excellent microcosm. Regardless, it makes the thread nearly unreadable.

On topics that matter, still nothing of note for the Atlantic for a while

One final comment on the subject, just search “Humberto” in the forum search bar and tell me which two posters show up the most 

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

One final comment on the subject, just search “Humberto” in the forum search bar and tell me which two posters show up the most 

Good find. I see what you’re saying about the two of them mentioning Humberto by far the most frequently since last year. Though not absolute proof, it admittedly at least looks quite suspicious.

 Also, Barry vs Barrett fwiw.

 As you can see both accounts still show up with profiles. So, I assume that means different IP addresses. Probably not but does that tell you anything?

[BarryStantonGBP]

38 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

One final comment on the subject, just search “Humberto”

Who?

[BarryStantonGBP]

who?

are we gonna pretend i invented the name humberto

or that i’m the only one in this forum who ever mentions a hurricane name from the official NHC list

 

y’all act like typing the same name a few times is some secret code

reminder:

 

• humberto is literally a scheduled name on the rotating list

• every active poster brings up future names every single season

• searching the forum for any in-season name (karen, imelda, lorenzo, etc) will show “the same two or three” people posting the most—because they post the most about hurricane seasons

• also: not sure what the “proof” is here, unless there’s a rule against saying storm names out loud?

• not seeing how this is any different from the 500 posts about barry or melissa in the same threads

 

 

also, i guess by this logic anyone who posted about dorian in 2019 or ian in 2022 is running a sockpuppet farm

 

touch grass

[BarryStantonGBP]

40 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Good find. I see what you’re saying about the two of them mentioning Humberto by far the most frequently since last year. Though not absolute proof, it admittedly at least looks quite suspicious.

 Also, Barry vs Barrett fwiw.

 As you can see both accounts still show up with profiles. So, I assume that means different IP addresses. Probably not but does that tell you anything?

can’t wait for the expose about the “melissa cabal” or the great “gabrielle syndicate”

the nhc gave us a list, i’m using it

see you all in 2031 when this thread is about how only 2 people ever mention “barry” and “karen”

rinse, repeat

56 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

One final comment on the subject, just search “Humberto” in the forum search bar and tell me which two posters show up the most 

 

so to be clear

if someone mentions “humberto” more than once on a hurricane forum

they must be the same person

by that logic

everyone who brings up “karen,” “melissa,” “lorenzo,” or “imelda” is running a deep op

guys, the names come from a public list that repeats every 6 years

next you’ll say i’m behind all the “katrina” mentions since 2005

 

let me know when talking about the actual storms is against the rules

until then i’ll keep referencing the nhc’s schedule like every other weather nerd since 1979

[BarryStantonGBP]

57 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

One final comment on the subject, just search “Humberto” in the forum search bar and tell me which two posters show up the most 

 

40 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Good find. I see what you’re saying about the two of them mentioning Humberto by far the most frequently since last year. Though not absolute proof, it admittedly at least looks quite suspicious.

 Also, Barry vs Barrett fwiw.

 As you can see both accounts still show up with profiles. So, I assume that means different IP addresses. Probably not but does that tell you anything?

humberto is on the atlantic naming list every 6 years

so is barry, karen, melissa, lorenzo, imelda, etc

of course people mention these names

that’s how storm discussion works—especially preseason

if you search “humberto,” you’ll mostly see the people who actually post forecasts and season outlooks

that’s the whole point of having official names

so unless we’re banning preseason discussion entirely, not sure what the conspiracy is supposed to be

[BarryStantonGBP]

oi, would you look at these lists

remember when it was all proper names, now it’s like the YOOKAY weather report

used to be Andrea, Barry, Karen, now it’s “Humberto,” “Imelda,” “Lorenzo,” “Nestor,” “Pablo,”

and next year we’ve got “Gonzalo,” “Isaias,” “Omar,” “Imani,”

2027 comes along, suddenly it’s “Imani” and “Julian” and “Odette”

then you scroll a bit further, and it’s “Idris,” “Farrah,” “Idalia,” “Jose,” “Miguel,” “Rafael”—what is this, the Notting Hill Carnival?

 

just waiting for the day they throw in a “Deshawn,” “Aaliyah,” and “Tyrone” for full diversity bingo

if “Wendy” ever gets replaced, I’m betting it’s “Lashonda”

won’t be long before a Category 4 makes landfall and it’s “Storm Kwame” battering Cornwall

multicultural britain strikes again—soon you’ll need a pronunciation guide just to read the NHC update

 

back in my day, a storm was called Bob, not “Gonzalo”

progress, they call it

pass me the PG Tips

 

 

 

---

 

right, so i’m looking at this year’s hurricane names and i’ve got to ask

when did we swap out Bob and Wendy for Humberto and Imani?

can’t even read half the list without feeling like i’m on the night bus through brixton

proper british storms used to be called something you’d name a golden retriever—barry, karen, bill

now it’s “farrah,” “gonzalo,” “imelda,” “lorenzo”—what’s next, “storm shaniqua” and “hurricane deshawn” making a landfall in devon?

 

can’t wait for the NHC to start posting pronunciation guides in punjabi, just for inclusivity

soon as “Wendy” retires, bet your last rich tea it’s getting replaced by “Laquisha” or “Adebola”

back in the day under thatcher, storms hit with names like bob and andrew—flattened your house and didn’t need a passport

now it’s “humberto” and “idris”—i’m half-expecting the shipping forecast to start with “big up to storm leroy” battering the channel islands

 

progress, they call it

one day you’re tracking hurricane bill, next thing you know, it’s hurricane omar raving it up over the isles of scilly

this is what multicultural britain looks like—YOOKAY 2025, mate

where’s my PG Tips and a proper storm called Nigel?

[BarryStantonGBP]