2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

10 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Of course every day is a sunny day for this fella

 

 Hey Barry,

 57, a Houston area regular, is generous with his postings and is very knowledgable along with decades of experience with tropical forecasting. He runs his own tropical forecasting service. He’s one of the original regulars. So, for good reason, he’s very well respected and I’m glad he posts as much as he does. However, I do feel he tends to have a bit of a bearish lean in some of his public posts there. Again, imho as it’s subjective. And it’s by no means for nearly all posts. In addition, many times his bearish posts verify very well. I think that his desire to have quiet weekends sometimes influences his posts there toward the bear.
 

 Keep in mind that I prefer BB posters exhibit neither an explicit bearish nor an explicit bullish bias. I try my best to be perceived that way.

[BarryStantonGBP]

52 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Hey Barry,

 57, a Houston area regular, is generous with his postings and is very knowledgable along with decades of experience with tropical forecasting. He runs his own tropical forecasting service. He’s one of the original regulars. So, for good reason, he’s very well respected and I’m glad he posts as much as he does. However, I do feel he tends to have a bit of a bearish lean in some of his public posts there. Again, imho as it’s subjective. And it’s by no means for nearly all posts. In addition, many times his bearish posts verify very well. I think that his desire to have quiet weekends sometimes influences his posts there toward the bear.
 

 Keep in mind that I prefer BB posters exhibit neither an explicit bearish nor an explicit bullish bias. I try my best to be perceived that way.

He's way too bearish NGL

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

He's way too bearish NGL

Hey Barry,

 He’s in my list of posters with a bearish bias. If you took an avg of bull cat5 and bear 57, do you think they’d average neutral?

 Interesting fact: When baby boomer 57 joined there, Gen. Zer cat5 was near birth! Cat5 was born near the time that board was born. As you can see I called out bias in these two cases despite big age diffs.

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Hey Barry,

 He’s in my list of posters with a bearish bias. If you took an avg of bull cat5 and bear 57, do you think they’d average neutral?

 Interesting fact: When baby boomer 57 joined there, Gen. Zer cat5 was near birth! Cat5 was born near the time that board was born. As you can see I called out bias in these two cases despite big age diffs.

cat5 imo is a realist

[BarryStantonGBP]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

Hey Barry,

 He’s in my list of posters with a bearish bias. If you took an avg of bull cat5 and bear 57, do you think they’d average neutral?

 Interesting fact: When baby boomer 57 joined there, Gen. Zer cat5 was near birth! Cat5 was born near the time that board was born. As you can see I called out bias in these two cases despite big age diffs.

gtfih 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

[BarryStantonGBP]

Also Eric Webb can shut up

i literally predicted a hurricane will landfall somewhere on the Atlantic on September 7th

and another on the 25th

[yoda]

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1947084436434301069

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

15 minutes ago, yoda said:

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1947084436434301069

 

A hurricane or TS will landfall somewhere in the Atlantic on September 7

hazelSODOFFton

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1947084436434301069

 

 Thanks, Yoda.
 So, this Andy Hazelton tweet is sort of agreeing with what Eric Webb just had said about an expected quiet August into early Sept. Note, however, that Andy said “I’m kinda of the same opinion that August may be quiet in the Atlantic”, which isn’t a forecast since August “may be quiet” in any year. A forecast would say something much more explicit like “August will be quiet”, “I expect August to be quiet”, or “August will likely be quiet”.

[Boston Bulldog]

My confidence is steadily growing that Barry Stanton GBP is CurlyHeadedBarrett’s (last year’s bizarre spammer) new account. The frequent abbreviations and copy-pasting of content from elsewhere as a form of bastardized “analysis” is uncanny. The first 3 posts in the entire thread are an excellent microcosm. Regardless, it makes the thread nearly unreadable.

On topics that matter, still nothing of note for the Atlantic for a while

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 hours ago, yoda said:

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1947084436434301069

 

Pretty much mirrors the sea surface temp profile from earlier. Having the subtropics warmer then the tropics destroys vertical instability in the MDR. The reason they think the season is weighted towards the second half is  climatological. Seasonally the subtropics will begin to cool faster then the tropics and return a more normal instability profile. 
Last year should have been a wake up call. Warmer water doesn’t automatically mean a hyperactive season. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

My confidence is steadily growing that Barry Stanton GBP is CurlyHeadedBarrett’s (last year’s bizarre spammer) new account. The frequent abbreviations and copy-pasting of content from elsewhere as a form of bastardized “analysis” is uncanny. The first 3 posts in the entire thread are an excellent microcosm. Regardless, it makes the thread nearly unreadable.

On topics that matter, still nothing of note for the Atlantic for a while

Mate I’m brand new here 

don’t know what you’re on about 

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pretty much mirrors the sea surface temp profile from earlier. Having the subtropics warmer then the tropics destroys vertical instability in the MDR. The reason they think the season is weighted towards the second half is  climatological. Seasonally the subtropics will begin to cool faster then the tropics and return a more normal instability profile. 
Last year should have been a wake up call. Warmer water doesn’t automatically mean a hyperactive season. 

Seems to be the new normal