Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,529
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    christians
    Newest Member
    christians
    Joined

Severe Weather 4-30-24 through 5-2-24


 Share

Recommended Posts

46 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Violent tornado east of Hollister, nearly stationary.

 

225K delta v at one point, absolutely insane. Some of the more unique storm motion I've seen in a long time as well, there was a point where the tor was moving WNW.

 

Thankfully it's been over very rural areas thus far. Curious as to whether there was anything in its path at peak intensity they'll be able to use during surveys to get an accurate classification.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, andyhb said:

And now a major anticyclonic tornado with a very strong TDS just south of the original tornado. This is absolutely insane.

Another one just formed directly to the east of the anti-cyclonic one. Grandfield, OK might be in trouble here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today’s severe thunderstorm threat is focused from Kansas, southward into West Texas, where SPC has a narrow ENH risk outlined.

IMG-7685.jpg

A surface low is slowly drifting north across far southwestern Kansas with a dryline extending south-southwestward across West Texas. A warm front is draped east, in the general vicinity of the KS/OK border. A composite outflow boundary/moisture gradient is evident from the eastern Texas panhandle, then southeast across southern Oklahoma. 

Convergence and low level vorticity will be maximized near the surface low across southwestern Kansas. This is one favored area for isolated to scattered supercells by mid to late afternoon. The question here, is will storms stay in the narrow moist sector, or drift north of the warm front? DDC has seen rapid air mass recovery from the 12z RAOB, as the dew point was 60F as of 17z. The 12z sounding also featured an EML and moist mid-levels, suggesting further air mass recovery could put DDC on the fringe of the favorable environment later this afternoon.

IMG-7686.jpg

At least isolated supercell development seems probable to the south, across the OK/TX panhandles and west Texas. While the warm sector may be narrow in the northern part of the area, it broadens substantially south of the outflow boundary. 17z observations show 70F dew points as far north as CDS. The boundary may serve as a focus for increased tornado potential, given backed low level flow. Storm mergers and interactions may lead to a messy storm mode in this area, especially if convective development is widespread. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A Tornado Watch has been issued for parts of the OK/TX panhandle vicinity, where convective initiation is underway southeast of Amarillo. 

Of course there was also a tornado reported near Fort Stockton, TX earlier this afternoon…

Link to comment
Share on other sites

welcome to May in the Plains

Quote

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
DONLEY COUNTY...

At 415 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Clarendon, moving
east at 15 mph.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • cstrunk changed the title to Severe Weather 4-30-24 through 5-2-24

Large buoyancy coupled with marginal deep layer shear and weak low level flow will support at least a few organized severe thunderstorms around North/Central Texas. 

The environment should feature rapid convective initiation by mid to late afternoon, albeit with a tendency for mixed/messy, HP storm modes. Dew points are averaging in the lower 70s around the ENH risk area. Temperatures will only need to reach the lower 80s to breach the cap, so storms may start developing as early as 3-4 PM. 

Surface winds are backed a bit with eastward extent, where earlier outflow is gradually modifying. I’m not sure about the tornado threat. It’s non-zero and will probably heavily depend on storm scale interactions. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding are also a concern. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, andyhb said:

Also on Freddy McKinney's live stream. 6 of the last 7 days have had tornadoes now.

I think he took it down but was watching when he transported that wounded family to the hospital. That was tough to listen to. I bet his adrenaline was through the roof.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • cstrunk changed the title to Severe Weather 4-30-24 through 5-2-24
On 5/3/2024 at 12:54 AM, stormdragonwx said:

Man 2024 is turning out to be a pretty epic plains year, its been too long.

Yep. This pattern of quality, photogenic twisters in the central plains is a dream for chasers!  It feels like an eternity since a stretch like this - in fact I think this may be the best one since 2008? I don't remember it well now. Other active periods didn't have this consistency, I would prefer this over 2019.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...