Damage In Tolland Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Sunny breaks approaching HFD now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 It’s like 55-60 literally everywhere. No one is “winning.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sunny breaks approaching HFD now. Huh? Radar shows light rain approaching HFD now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 I’ll take the loss today. Gonna be a bust . Somehow being positive led to the rain deciding to rot from CT to ORH all day . Models certainly didn’t have that but yet here we are. Kev FTL on all counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 6z euro has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ll take the loss today. Gonna be a bust . Somehow being positive led to the rain deciding to rot from CT to ORH all day . Models certainly didn’t have that but yet here we are. Kev FTL on all counts. Every guidance except the GFS had it - made a point of it yesterday. The GFS busted fwiw to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 It's raining! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Every guidance except the GFS had it - made a point of it yesterday. The GFS busted fwiw to you At 18z models were mainly dry and had it all east. Instead it’s going be dry there and pour all day here. Radar looks like .50 or more . Even this morning BOX had it dry here and raining EMA. Busts all around General thinking is showers are possible in any location, but will be more widespread east of the Worcester metro area. In fact, the CT River Valley may "luck out" with a primarily dry day as weak high pressure attempts to nudge in from the southwest. While it will a dreary and rather chilly day, with little to no diurnal swing in temps from current obs (in the 50s and low 60s, west), QPF will be minimal, with HREF ensemble mean QPF around 0.1" across Middlesex and Essex Counties. Should high pressure be able to scatter out a few breaks of sunshine across western MA, could see temps warm briefly into the mid to upper 60s in places like Hartford and Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 It is absolutely pouring. Dendy just pointing and laughing . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 What exactly is causing this gangbang in a shed rain band ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: At 18z models were mainly dry and had it all east. Instead it’s going be dry there and pour all day here. Radar looks like .50 or more . Even this morning BOX had it dry here and raining EMA. Busts all around General thinking is showers are possible in any location, but will be more widespread east of the Worcester metro area. In fact, the CT River Valley may "luck out" with a primarily dry day as weak high pressure attempts to nudge in from the southwest. While it will a dreary and rather chilly day, with little to no diurnal swing in temps from current obs (in the 50s and low 60s, west), QPF will be minimal, with HREF ensemble mean QPF around 0.1" across Middlesex and Essex Counties. Should high pressure be able to scatter out a few breaks of sunshine across western MA, could see temps warm briefly into the mid to upper 60s in places like Hartford and Springfield. You need reality scope checks ... badly. First of all, in interpreting Met discussions ... that bold statement counts. It was possible to do what it is doing. That does not mean, mainly dry in concept or intent - neither. There's thinking positive' but you have to do it from a position of objective plausibility - not just because it is what one wants. Lol. Secondly, "the 18z runs" don't mean jack shit when there's run after run after run signifying something else when taking their ( duh ) aggregated mean. But ... just for shits 'n' giggles, that is not true about the 18z runs, yesterday, anyway, when taking that single run cycle in a vacuum: Like I said, as this series ( 18z run yesterday ) clearly shows... the GFS busted but the other guidance has QPF plugging into the region from just about exactly what you see happening in the now-cast/synoptics at this time. Bravo all guidance except the GFS. See... (this goes without saying at this point) ... you don't actually look at the guidance. I think you sometimes gather what the guidance must "seem" like just based on something like ... I dunno, the mood-tenor of the moment from the shenanigans in here. That's a social awareness - I'll give that. But it is exceedingly error prone in the long run and gets you into trouble, because you make statements that are patently incorrect, like, "At 18z models were mainly dry... " It's all good though... you're the class clown. They serve a purpose too - 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 bleh.....56 and rain. Not a great way to run a Saturday in the middle of May, but not unprecedented either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You need reality scope checks ... badly. First of all, in interpreting Met discussions ... that bold statement counts. It was possible to do what it is doing. That does not mean, mainly dry in concept or intent - neither. There's thinking positive' but you have to do it from a position of objective plausibility - not just because it is what one wants. Lol. Secondly, "the 18z runs" don't mean jack shit when there's run after run after run signifying something else when taking their ( duh ) aggregated mean. But ... just for shits 'n' giggles, that is not true about the 18z runs, yesterday, anyway, when taking that single run cycle in a vacuum: Like I said, as this series ( 18z run yesterday ) clearly shows... the GFS busted but the other guidance has QPF plugging into the region from just about exactly what you see happening in the now-cast/synoptics at this time. Bravo all guidance except the GFS. See... (this goes without saying at this point) ... you don't actually look at the guidance. I think you sometimes gather what the guidance must "seem" like just based on something like ... I dunno, the mood-tenor of the moment from the shenanigans in here. That's a social awareness - I'll give that. But it is exceedingly error prone in the long run and gets you into trouble, because you make statements that are patently incorrect, like, "At 18z models were mainly dry... " It's all good though... you're the class clown. They serve a purpose too - Did you read anything I posted and what BOX put out this morning? All was unexpected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did you read anything I posted and what BOX put out this morning? All was unexpected Looks almost deffy like. Good WAA with 850 theta-e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 great day for an outdoor wedding in SE NH ... meanwhile its starting to pour in metro west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks almost deffy like. Good WAA with 850 theta-e What looked like maybe a scattered shower on models yesterday has turned into an all day soaking rain of .50-1”. It’s literally just unbelievable how bad modeling was 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did you read anything I posted and what BOX put out this morning? All was unexpected I thought yesterday the rain looked to back decently west too on a lot of models I wasn’t sure where the east only or Dendrite only was coming from except for “positive thinking” like you said. Its onshore flow and wedged, easy to see it being chilly and damp. 12z Euro run yesterday looked regionwide showery. GGEM rotating stuff inward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What looked like maybe a scattered shower on models yesterday has turned into an all day soaking rain of .50-1”. It’s literally just unbelievable how bad modeling was See I think in the winter you would’ve taken the over and more snowy in this set-up with onshore flow. Would’ve been back to NY state with precip. But Murphy’s law says it wouldn’t have worked out in the winter, just as a mocking from Mother Nature. 3km NAM figured it out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 We stein here. Dry day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I thought yesterday the rain looked to back decently west too on a lot of models I wasn’t sure where the east only or Dendrite only was coming from except for “positive thinking” like you said. Its onshore flow and wedged, easy to see it being chilly and damp. 12z Euro run yesterday looked regionwide showery. ----- GGEM rotating stuff inward. Ha ha ha to say nothing of the fact that Dendrite only must somehow be construed as a positive thing when it comes to turd weather - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Actually wouldn’t mind a little rain because stein is here for awhile. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did you read anything I posted and what BOX put out this morning? All was unexpected WTF ... I just bold' right back to you, what you posted about NWS SO yeah, I did - 'showers are possible at any time' you seem to also be blind to content that proves, in objective clad black and white facts, your BS - I forgot to add that charm to that list of your accolades - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Well ...anyway, back here in reality ... That's starting to look more and more like a low-grade heat wave potential Tue-Wed-Thur. The 2-m products ( which are a joke, because they don't in fact actually ever represent the 2-meter slope temperature, but appear to stop/interpret the sfc as the 1000 mb level on the bottom of the soundings ) from the operational runs are already 85 to 87 on Tuesday and Wednesday... 850s are marginal though. 14 to 16C ... but that appears to coincide with favorably less ceiling/blocked insolation, all happening over a wind trajectory that is transporting a kinetically elevated air mass. This has been sort of in the making for over a week in the telecon spreads, with a pretty strong -PNA. It seems to be finally over powering this weird trainwreck thing we've been observing for the past week between here and lower D. Straight. The NAO hasn't been hugely negative ...just sort of. It seems some other emergence of the larger scoped synoptics is/has caused this semi-permanent grunge stalling in in the area... Anyway, 88 to 91 wouldn't shock me for those two days with Thursday a bit sketchy because a Pac front/convection my break the party at that time. And the upshot of this analysis is that I actually studied the guidance when drafting these projections ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Presenting without comment. https://x.com/nwsboston/status/1791737962193142107?s=46&t=Nn9Cx92_8118fPdhHPdJHw 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 23 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I thought yesterday the rain looked to back decently west too on a lot of models I wasn’t sure where the east only or Dendrite only was coming from except for “positive thinking” like you said. Its onshore flow and wedged, easy to see it being chilly and damp. 12z Euro run yesterday looked regionwide showery. GGEM rotating stuff inward. What I meant though .. was it seemed like a shower here and there. Nothing.. nothing had an all day deform zone rotting over a narrow area . I’m already at .30. Show me a model that had these 1” amounts up thru 18z yesterday that we’re going to get 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 What a nice dry day to do some yardwork. I wonder what others are doing today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a nice dry day to do some yardwork. I wonder what others are doing today. Dry here too. Hopefully it is for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Just now, kdxken said: Dry here too. Hopefully it is for everyone! Gee I’m glad we aren’t EMATT they said. Gonna be a nasty Saturday they said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 At least our Sunday will be nice while out east stays cloudy and cool . I’ll take solace in that and look forward to returning the posting favors tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 Now they slowly , sneakily admit to their bust of having a dry forecast 1015 AM Update: Not much change from previous forecast, cloudy with periods of light rain and drizzle. Not a washout, but more nuisance rain. Currently some enhancement to the rainfall taking place across the Worcester Hills. This is in response to NE flow up to 19 kt at KORH, providing upslope component. Otherwise, it`s periods of light rain/drizzle. Rain shield struggling to reach western MA/CT, as low level jet weakens westward. In fact, across this region there are some breaks in the overcast and dry weather yielding temps in the low 60s. Meanwhile, the remainder of the region is stuck in the 50s. Normal high for May 18th is 67-72. Thus, much cooler than normal especially across eastern MA and RI. Previous discussion below. --------------------- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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