April 2024

[SACRUS]

Would have been nice eclipse viewing today

 

[psv88]

9 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Again GFS and GEFS mapping out the way to a cool wet summer and if weather systems are situated anything like this we won't be seeing any hurricanes near the east coast. It's early so things could change but idea of an upper low over the northeast and northwest Atlantic is awfully persistent. I gotta hope these maps are as bogus as all the heat the model advertised last August.

WX/PT

You have called for a cool summer every summer for the past 5 years and it’s never been correct. I believe one summer you even said 0 90 degree days or something. You must hate the heat or something lol

[JetsPens87]

9 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Again GFS and GEFS mapping out the way to a cool wet summer and if weather systems are situated anything like this we won't be seeing any hurricanes near the east coast. It's early so things could change but idea of an upper low over the northeast and northwest Atlantic is awfully persistent. I gotta hope these maps are as bogus as all the heat the model advertised last August.

WX/PT

Yea.. its April. I struggle to find a correlation between OP Gfs in early April and the entire summer.

[snowman19]

18 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Yea.. its April. I struggle to find a correlation between OP Gfs in early April and the entire summer.

When you look at the synoptic picture (rapidly developing La Niña, -PDO, ++AMO) that actually points to anything but a cool summer, actually points to a SE ridge on roids summer. The high soil moisture does point to wet/humid 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Thursday night into Friday morning looks nasty, very heavy rain, high winds. What else is new? The beat goes on

Yeah, record moisture levels across the world now accompanying the big global temperature spike since last year. 

 

 

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

When you look at the synoptic picture (rapidly developing La Niña, -PDO, ++AMO) that actually points to anything but a cool summer, actually points to a SE ridge on roids summer. The high soil moisture does point to wet/humid 

This

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

That won't happen again 

it's why we need climate modification in the worst way and I'm pretty confident it will happen at some point (probably by 2030).

 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

When you look at the synoptic picture (rapidly developing La Niña, -PDO, ++AMO) that actually points to anything but a cool summer, actually points to a SE ridge on roids summer. The high soil moisture does point to wet/humid 

sounds like a Florida type summer again, lots of low 90s and very high humidity dew points consistently 70 and above.

Can you see how this would be different from 1983 and 2010? What were the indices going into those two summers?

The reason I am specifically listing those two summers is because they were also strong or very strong el ninos trending to la ninas.  Maybe more like 1983 than 2010?  Because this was a super el nino like 1982-83 was.  1983 was still very hot on the south shore of Long Island-- it was the hottest summer prior to 2010 at JFK.  It was also our wettest and most humid year by a wide margin before the 2010s.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2010)
NYC: 92 (2010)
LGA: 91 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 16 (1982)
NYC: 21 (1982)
LGA: 22 (1982)

 

Historical:

 

1857 - A late season freeze brought snow to every state in the Union. Even as far south as Houston TX the mercury plunged to 21 degrees. (David Ludlum)

 

1926: Lightning started a disastrous oil fire at San Luis Obispo, California, which lasted for five days, spread over 900 acres, and burned over six million barrels of oil. Flames reached 1000 feet, and the temperature of the fire was estimated at 2,500 degrees. The fire spawned thousands of whirlwinds with hundreds the size of small tornadoes. One vortex traveled one mile to the east-northeast of the blaze, destroying a small farmhouse and killing two people. Damage totaled $15 million.

1929 - Record heat prevailed across New England. Hartford CT reported an afternoon high of 90 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1935 - Amarillo, TX, reported dust obscuring visibility for twenty hours. Blowing dust was reported twenty-seven of thirty days in the month. On several days the visibility was reduced to near zero by the dust. (The Weather Channel)

 

1948: Six tornadoes ripped through Northern Illinois and Indiana; mainly across the southern and eastern suburbs of Chicago. The hardest hit was from a tornado that moved east from near Manteno, IL to near Hebron, Indiana. This storm left four people dead; three in Grant Park, IL and one near Hebron, IN with 67 injuries and over a million dollars damage. Other strong tornadoes in the area moved from near Coal City, IL to Braidwood, IL and from Calumet City, IL into Indiana. Further south, two strong tornadoes occurred across the northern parts of Champaign and Vermilion Counties in Illinois.

 

1980 - Severe thunderstorms spawned tornadoes which ripped through central Arkansas. The severe thunderstorms also produce high winds and baseball size hail. Five counties were declared disaster areas by President Carter. (The Weather Channel)

 

1987 - International Falls, MN, with record warm afternoon high of 71 degrees, was warmer than Miami FL, where the high was a record cool 66 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - High winds in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region gusted to 172 mph atop Grandfather Mountain NC. Twenty-nine cities in the southwest and north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Yankton SD with a reading of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-seven cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 92 degrees in Downtown San Francisco and 104 degrees at Phoenix AZ established records for April. Highs of 78 degrees at Ely NV and 93 degrees at San Jose CA equalled April records. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Low pressure brought strong winds to the Alaska peninsula and the Aleutian Islands. Winds gusted to 68 mph at Port Heiden two days in a row. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across central Alaska. Yakutat reported a record high of 54 degrees. Unseasonably cold weather prevailed over central sections of the Lower Forty-eight states. A dozen cities from Kansas to Indiana and Alabama reported record low temperatures for the date. Evansville IN equalled their record for April with a morning low of 23 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2010 - A temperature of 80 degrees is measured on Grandfather Mountain, NC, the warmest ever measured in April and three degrees short of the all-time record high for any month.

2010: The record heat that affected the region on April 6-7 included 93 degrees at the Washington-Dulles Airport on April 6, the earliest 90-degree reading on record. On April 7, Newark, New Jersey, shattered its daily record by seven degrees when the maximum temperature rose to 92 degrees. The Northeast ended up with its second warmest April in 116 years.

2010: The record heat that affected the region on April 6-7 included 93 degrees at the Washington-Dulles Airport on April 6, the earliest 90-degree reading on record. On April 7, Newark, New Jersey, shattered its daily record by seven degrees when the maximum temperature rose to 92 degrees. The Northeast ended up with its second warmest April in 116 years.

I remember this day as if it was yesterday-- who knew the entire summer going into early fall was just as magical as this   Very similar to 2002.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2010)
NYC: 92 (2010)
LGA: 91 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 16 (1982)
NYC: 21 (1982)
LGA: 22 (1982)

 

Historical:

 

1857 - A late season freeze brought snow to every state in the Union. Even as far south as Houston TX the mercury plunged to 21 degrees. (David Ludlum)

 

1926: Lightning started a disastrous oil fire at San Luis Obispo, California, which lasted for five days, spread over 900 acres, and burned over six million barrels of oil. Flames reached 1000 feet, and the temperature of the fire was estimated at 2,500 degrees. The fire spawned thousands of whirlwinds with hundreds the size of small tornadoes. One vortex traveled one mile to the east-northeast of the blaze, destroying a small farmhouse and killing two people. Damage totaled $15 million.

1929 - Record heat prevailed across New England. Hartford CT reported an afternoon high of 90 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1935 - Amarillo, TX, reported dust obscuring visibility for twenty hours. Blowing dust was reported twenty-seven of thirty days in the month. On several days the visibility was reduced to near zero by the dust. (The Weather Channel)

 

1948: Six tornadoes ripped through Northern Illinois and Indiana; mainly across the southern and eastern suburbs of Chicago. The hardest hit was from a tornado that moved east from near Manteno, IL to near Hebron, Indiana. This storm left four people dead; three in Grant Park, IL and one near Hebron, IN with 67 injuries and over a million dollars damage. Other strong tornadoes in the area moved from near Coal City, IL to Braidwood, IL and from Calumet City, IL into Indiana. Further south, two strong tornadoes occurred across the northern parts of Champaign and Vermilion Counties in Illinois.

 

1980 - Severe thunderstorms spawned tornadoes which ripped through central Arkansas. The severe thunderstorms also produce high winds and baseball size hail. Five counties were declared disaster areas by President Carter. (The Weather Channel)

 

1987 - International Falls, MN, with record warm afternoon high of 71 degrees, was warmer than Miami FL, where the high was a record cool 66 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - High winds in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region gusted to 172 mph atop Grandfather Mountain NC. Twenty-nine cities in the southwest and north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Yankton SD with a reading of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-seven cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 92 degrees in Downtown San Francisco and 104 degrees at Phoenix AZ established records for April. Highs of 78 degrees at Ely NV and 93 degrees at San Jose CA equalled April records. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Low pressure brought strong winds to the Alaska peninsula and the Aleutian Islands. Winds gusted to 68 mph at Port Heiden two days in a row. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across central Alaska. Yakutat reported a record high of 54 degrees. Unseasonably cold weather prevailed over central sections of the Lower Forty-eight states. A dozen cities from Kansas to Indiana and Alabama reported record low temperatures for the date. Evansville IN equalled their record for April with a morning low of 23 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2010 - A temperature of 80 degrees is measured on Grandfather Mountain, NC, the warmest ever measured in April and three degrees short of the all-time record high for any month.

2010: The record heat that affected the region on April 6-7 included 93 degrees at the Washington-Dulles Airport on April 6, the earliest 90-degree reading on record. On April 7, Newark, New Jersey, shattered its daily record by seven degrees when the maximum temperature rose to 92 degrees. The Northeast ended up with its second warmest April in 116 years.

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2010)
NYC: 92 (2010)
LGA: 91 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 16 (1982)
NYC: 21 (1982)
LGA: 22 (1982)

 

It's funny to see this, because I remember both extremes so well.

[WX-PA]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

sounds like a Florida type summer again, lots of low 90s and very high humidity dew points consistently 70 and above.

Can you see how this would be different from 1983 and 2010? What were the indices going into those two summers?

The reason I am specifically listing those two summers is because they were also strong or very strong el ninos trending to la ninas.  Maybe more like 1983 than 2010?  1983 was still very hot on the south shore of Long Island-- it was the hottest summer prior to 2010.  It was also our wettest and most humid summer by a wide margin before the 2010s.

Summer of 1966 was very hot..Summers of 73 and 16?..Don't remember them being that hot at all.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, WX-PA said:

Summer of 1966 was very hot..Summers of 73 and 16?..Don't remember them being that hot at all.

1966 broke records too, very dry and very hot!

1965 and into 1966 was our driest period in recorded history, which was broken by the winter of 1966-67.

[WX-PA]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1966 broke records too, very dry and very hot!

1965 and into 1966 was our driest period in recorded history, which was broken by the winter of 1966-67.

Great winter with a Christmas eve snowstorm. The year I got into weather.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

You have called for a cool summer every summer for the past 5 years and it’s never been correct. I believe one summer you even said 0 90 degree days or something. You must hate the heat or something lol

It's not an official call. Just saying that if the current pattern didn't altogether almost reverse, it could happen. And I'm sure I said that the other few times as well. It is difficult at this time to imagine how this pattern changes because of its persistence but persistent patterns have changed in other years so it's possible.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said:

Yea.. its April. I struggle to find a correlation between OP Gfs in early April and the entire summer.

I agree except that if you look back at the very hot summers you usually find some heat beginning in April or May. Not that it's mandatory. But I agree with your point and some here have mentioned a likelihood or possibility of a scary  hot summer.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I agree except that if you look back at the very hot summers you usually find some heat beginning in April or May. Not that it's mandatory. But I agree with your point and some here have mentioned a likelihood or possibility of a scary  hot summer.

WX/PT

1966 and 1983 are the only 30+ 90 degree day summers without at least some heat in April or May. 

WX/PT

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This

One of the few times I actually agree with him. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

And now from 00Z run to 12Z run night and day differences in this crappy GFS model. Who knows which is correct? Too early to say but 12Z GFS signaling a pattern change on tax day and we could be well into the 80s and maybe higher.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

And now from 00Z run to 12Z run night and day differences in this crappy GFS model. Who knows which is correct? Too early to say but 12Z GFS signaling a pattern change on tax day and we could be well into the 80s and maybe higher.

WX/PT

Meanwhile the Euro having onshore winds would be 10-15 degrees cooler.

WX/PT

[JetsPens87]

52 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I agree except that if you look back at the very hot summers you usually find some heat beginning in April or May. Not that it's mandatory. But I agree with your point and some here have mentioned a likelihood or possibility of a scary  hot summer.

WX/PT

It really depends on what it looks like coming out of this MJO Wave and blocking episode IMO. I still don't see any big sustained heat on the horizon though ensembles keep hinting at waves of well AN temps so if there's a strong correlation to Apr May temps I think we're on track.

[JetsPens87]

32 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Meanwhile the Euro having onshore winds would be 10-15 degrees cooler.

WX/PT

I think it's (correlation from Apr heat to summer temps) more about heat build then actual 2m temps in April in the tri state. And the ensembles continue to show the SE ridge building.

[JetsPens87]

50 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

1966 and 1983 are the only 30+ 90 degree day summers without at least some heat in April or May. 

WX/PT

What does "some heat" mean though?

Anomaly wise? 80 plus? And how long? Can we see the data set please? I'd imagine there's more to the story.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

14 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

What does "some heat" mean though?

Anomaly wise? 80 plus? And how long? Can we see the data set please? I'd imagine there's more to the story.

A day or more of 90+ at Central Park. I always use Central Park just to keep the statistics even. 

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I often refer to the 90+ Central Park page.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/90DegreeDays.pdf

WX/PT

 

[Allsnow]

Not this argument again….

[JetsPens87]

20 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

A day or more of 90+ at Central Park. I always use Central Park just to keep the statistics even. 

WX/PT

There's many more than 2 years that had 30 plus 90 degree days without a 90 degree day in April. I'd say extending that to April or May is really a stretch as you're over extending the statistic at that point.

 

Edit: by that I mean you really only have a handful of total 30 plus 90 days in recorded history so it's hard to make a conclusion that since only 2 didn't have a 90 degree day in Apr or May that the summer wouldn't have 30 plus 90 degree days.

It seems there's little statistical significance at that point. And it would only take 1 day in Apr OR May of 90 plus to blow any correlation out of the water. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

15 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

There's many more than 2 years that had 30 plus 90 degree days without a 90 degree day in April. I'd say extending that to April or May is really a stretch as you're over extending the statistic at that point.

 

Edit: by that I mean you really only have a handful of total 30 plus 90 days in recorded history so it's hard to make a conclusion that since only 2 didn't have a 90 degree day in Apr or May that the summer wouldn't have 30 plus 90 degree days.

It seems there's little statistical significance at that point. And it would only take 1 day in Apr OR May of 90 plus to blow any correlation out of the water. 

There were 11 30+ 90 degree day summers for Central Park. 2 of them had no 90+ days prior to June. Make of that what you will.

WX/PT

 

[snowman19]

Very confident we see our 1st 80+ degree high temp in the metro area since October by the end of this month

[JetsPens87]

7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

There were 11 30+ 90 degree day summers for Central Park. 2 of them had no 90+ days prior to June. Make of that what you will.

WX/PT

 

2 out of 11... yea I mean it's hard to say whether that's statistically significant without really looking at other variables.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Very confident we see our 1st 80+ degree high temp in the metro area since October by the end of this month

Hope not