Kevin Reilly Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 February 13th and 14th. I am out. No Cold High up north. Rain! Again this was a bonus wait until after the 15-16th of February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: If it can climb the coast...sweet jesus....guys i'm just analyzing it...we know it's in la la land. Oh man..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: If it can climb the coast...sweet jesus....guys i'm just analyzing it...we know it's in la la land. On this run it cut off a little too soon and south. Might still try. Ideally we want it to cut off in the TN valley and move ENE. But my god whatever the end result it’s so close to annihilating us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 12z GEFS likes the 13th a little more for frozen in our region than previous runs. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Verbatim, warm air intrusion...so it's a rainer, but I mean...300+ hrs. I feel like WW. If it were colder, it would be a HECS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 GEFS. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, jaydreb said: GEFS. Keeps hope alive so I won't jump yet. A week out what can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: On this run it cut off a little too soon and south. Might still try. Ideally we want it to cut off in the TN valley and move ENE. But my god whatever the end result it’s so close to annihilating us. It's 1.25" of QPF down here. You get badly fringed, so prep for HECS everybody. *actually, maybe you don't. Still going at 384..but can't get total QPF maps beyond that. I'm so bored. Anyway, Euro up next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Verbatim, warm air intrusion...so it's a rainer, but I mean...300+ hrs. I feel like WW. If it were colder, it would be a HECS Only the new gfs could take such a perfect setup and turn it into a rainstorm. I’m sending a strongly worded email to NCEP to correct the 12z run. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 There is an indication of 2 waves on the mean in the 12-14th window, but probably just timing differences among the members. Don't care enough at this juncture to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Verbatim, warm air intrusion...so it's a rainer, but I mean...300+ hrs. I feel like WW. If it were colder, it would be a HECS Don’t weenie me, we’re just analyzing it, but if you go to hr 300-320 and look at the lead in, a lot has to go wrong to end that way. The stj wave cuts off too soon. A stupid little NS wave that I guarantee won’t be there next run comes along at the exact wrong time and create a weakness in the confluence. If both those don’t happen we get crushed. From that 300 hour setup there was like 9 ways to get a snowstorm and the gfs found the one rain path lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, psuhoffman said: Don’t weenie me, we’re just analyzing it, but if you go to hr 300-320 and look at the lead in, a lot has to go wrong to end that way. The stj wave cuts off too soon. A stupid little NS wave that I guarantee won’t be there next run comes along at the exact wrong time and create a weakness in the confluence. If both those don’t happen we get crushed. From that 300 hour setup there was like 9 ways to get a snowstorm and the gfs found the one rain path lol. the GFS is also making two perfect 90 degree angles with like a 250kt jet. color me skeptical! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 And I know I’m the king of perfect track rainstorms but I wouldn’t worry about the gfs thermals at those ranges. Jan 2016 was warm at day 10-12. It was there but would it be snow was a legit thing. Around day 9 it started trending colder. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, psuhoffman said: And I know I’m the king of perfect track rainstorms but I wouldn’t worry about the gfs thermals at those ranges. Jan 2016 was warm at day 10-12. It was there but would it be snow was a legit thing. Around day 9 it started trending colder. Biggest takeaway has nothing to do with thermals... only that the models may just now be starting to pick up big threats at range. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 On the other hand, if at the end of this pattern the h5 matches 1958 and 2010 but all we got was a bunch of rain from perfect wave passes then we know and I can stop wasting my time. I firmly do not believe that’s how this is gonna go down though. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Only the new gfs could take such a perfect setup and turn it into a rainstorm. I’m sending a strongly worded email to NCEP to correct the 12z run. 12z GFS was a Panic Room CLASSIC. Just amazing stuff. I agree with others though that the takeaway should be largely positive here. We're seeing multiple strong waves ride under us with plenty of moisture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 this is just ridiculous looking lmao 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is just ridiculous looking lmao Block looks stronger to me on the gefs Closer look at trends says not really, but not weaker either. Just sharper and clearer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is just ridiculous looking lmao One of those mythical -NAO/-EPO combos that some say are physically impossible. Any need to worry about a lack of a +PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: One of those mythical -NAO/-EPO combos that some say are physically impossible. Any need to worry about a lack of a +PNA? Not really, contour lines show a neg tilted ridge over the west with an undercutting trough. This is how we usually get big storms. The +pna ridge usually builds behind the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, cbmclean said: One of those mythical -NAO/-EPO combos that some say are physically impossible. Any need to worry about a lack of a +PNA? 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Not really, contour lines show a neg tilted ridge over the west with an undercutting trough. This is how we usually get big storms. The +pna ridge usually builds behind the storm Plus, a temporary pna ridge between all those pacific waves crashing on will get washed out in the means at that range. There would be some ridging between waves. We don’t need a lot. With that look up top we don’t even want a lot. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 OK, on the Euro, things are def different out west vs 12z. trof/sw in the west is digging a bit more....stronger a a bit more amp'd...was broad trof on the 0z...now a bit sharper, although still broad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Def more separation vs 0z out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Vastly different H5...s/w lagging back there by a good bit vs 0z...i have no idea how this is going to turn out...just describing what I'm seeing so far yall 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Northern S/w diving south, with the base in in Northern IA/IL. The one we're looking at is centered over the southern NM border and into Mexico 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Much flatter out front with precip field northern stream s/w and southern one aren't even close ETA: I should say the first northern s/w is way out front...there is a second one diving down, but doesn't look like phase job as that one is not close to the southern vort either 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 So at 150, there's an initial slug of moisture that's sliding south of us...but there's some gathering to the west. There's a broad ass low developing down south off of the LA coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 850 line is perilously just south of DC running west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, stormtracker said: So at 150, there's an initial slug of moisture that's sliding south of us...but there's some gathering to the west. There's a broad ass low developing down south off of the LA coast Whether it’s a hit or not I like the changes over the top. It makes a colder solution possible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 not a bad look at 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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