zippity Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: That seems early for that area but they will probably make a run at 5-7 inches. I didn't believe it until I pulled up Foreflight weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I'm fairly sure he's going to be wrong but we'll see. OHX just said 4-7 with 8+ possible over his 1-3 area.Completely agree but I do believe it’s very reasonable for anyone north of 40 in the valley to push 8”. I’m in a location where I get 6-8” from the NAM and 8+ from all the other mods. I might end up in a good location. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Expanding the Warning area in N. AL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Achievement unlocked. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 RAP looks more North than most guidance last run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3k NAM trended SE and expanded northern precip shield. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Completely agree but I do believe it’s very reasonable for anyone north of 40 in the valley to push 8”. I’m in a location where I get 6-8” from the NAM and 8+ from all the other mods. I might end up in a good location. . That is very possible but also based on the latest runs it looks like his 1-3" line and 2-4" should also be in the 3-6+ at the very least. But maybe he will be correct 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Here is the 12z hrrr vs the 19z hrrr. Notice the freezing line southern extent steadily trending north. Are we being reverse NAM'd in the East? Haha hate to say it but trends are not your friend in ETN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 12k NAM spit out 12 inches for me, 3k spit out 15 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: RAP looks more North than most guidance last run A lot of the hi-res seems to disagree with OHX and their statement about Clarksville having trouble getting to 1-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The 18z NAM again looks like it is experiencing feedback issues. And that is a known bias of that model. It turns the line of precip well north and much earlier over the eastern valley. It could score a coup and certainly has before, but big totals(which aren't on other models) are usually indicative of feedback. We'll see. I also have seen the NAM overestimate my totals by 3-4x the actual amount in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 19z hrr slows the system down its slower then the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Shows just how expansive this system is 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in MS Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Light, fluffy snow falling now. 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 MRX upped their totals, would post the map but it's blurry on my phone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 Just now, Bill in MS said: Light, fluffy snow falling now. How cold are you guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3k NAM trended SE and expanded northern precip shield.This is what I was looking to happen. Mods don’t handle the northern side of the precipitation very well in these setups. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Dsty2001 said: MRX upped their totals, would post the map but it's blurry on my phone Yeah, basically 6-8" Knoxville north and 4-6 Johnson City east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6-8 inches knoxville and 4-6 loudon new totals from nws 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in MS Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: How cold are you guys? 23F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Bill in MS said: 23F. Hopefully you get all snow and it's a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 000 FXUS64 KMRX 142035 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 335 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 Key Messages: 1. Increasing confidence in a heavy snowfall, especially Knoxville and north, exact placement of highest amounts will depend on where exactly snow band sets up. 2. Potential still exists for a mix of precipitation types along the Georgia border, lending to moderate uncertainty on snowfall totals in the southernmost counties. 3. Precipitation late Monday night into Tuesday morning might switch to a light freezing drizzle as snow comes to an end. Discussion: Mostly sunny skies across eastern Tennessee currently will give way to the clouds associated with the incoming snowstorm. Expecting snow showers to begin moving into the valley tonight, sometime between 00z and 06z for first showers. HRRR is a little quicker than the HREF mean, but siding on the side of caution given how timing has gone thus far. It seems likely at this point that snow will stick as temperatures will be falling below freezing as snow arrives. Therefore last preparations for snow should be completed this afternoon and early evening. With the guidance continuing the trend today to move the start time of snow showers up, elected to begin the warning at 00z tonight, the winter weather advisory in North Carolina will remain 06z. Snowfall has increased with this package, now expecting a broad spectrum of 6 to 8 inches along and north of Interstate 40, with another maximum along the Cumberland Plateau. This forecast is slightly under the WPC guidance, and it seems likely that some locations will accumulate higher amounts. Placement of these localized higher snowfall amounts is uncertain depending on exact placement of narrow bands of higher snowfall rates. The other uncertainty in snow amounts continues to be along the border counties with Georgia, where a brief mix of sleet seems probable given the persistence in the high resolution guidance. For temperatures tomorrow, stuck with persistence with the prior shift. Some guidance, and the NBM, is warmer with the max temperature, but it`s hard to reconcile that idea when no strong advection is in place to power that warmth against the chilling effect of ongoing snowfall. Snow starts out tonight as generally scattered, and guidance has indicated a lessening or pause before becoming more steady stratiform snow with embedded bands during the daytime on Monday. While the HREF doesn`t suggest any 1"/hr rates, steady snowfall will lead to higher accumulations as Monday wears on. This translates to road conditions steadily worsening, especially secondaries and lesser frequented roads, as the day wears on. Monday night into early Tuesday might feature light freezing drizzle on the backside of the snow as moisture in the atmosphere lowers beneath the DGZ and thus only supercooled water will fall. Ice accumulations with this is expected to be a glaze at most. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 319 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 Key Messages: 1. Very cold temperatures in the wake of the snow that will tape off Tuesday morning. Single digit/ near zero temperatures and subzero wind chills possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. 2. Additional winter system possible Thursday night into Friday, but details still uncertain. Ensembles are in not in the best agreement with the system, but there is high confidence in cold weather behind this system lasting through the weekend. Discussion: As drier air will begin to move in late Monday night into Tuesday morning the main areas of precipitation will begin to exit the area as the upper level energy shifts northeast. At the end of the precipitation there is a possibility of some light freezing drizzle or flurries before tapering off Tuesday morning. Any ice accumulation should be minor with the snowfall being the main impact. Very cold air then advects into the area Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday with the Arctic airmass high pressure will be in the 20s with wind chill readings in the teens as winds will be about 10 mph. With the high pressure area directly overhead Tuesday night and early Wednesday winds decrease and temperatures will plummet to single digits areawide. Wind chill temperatures Wednesday night and early Thursday will be between zero and 10 below. Wednesday night and Thursday the Arctic high pressure will shift eastward and this allows winds to shift to the south and southwest Wednesday afternoon and overnight. Temperatures warm about 10 degrees Wednesday night and another 10 degrees Thursday with most locations in the 30s to around 40. However with anticipated snowfall by Tuesday temperatures may stay below freezing in some areas. The next weather change will be Thursday into Friday as a low pressure area develops across the southern plains and with increasing moisture will bring a fast moving front through the forecast area Friday. The track of the low is expected to go south of the region at this time. With the short period of southerly flow and the uncertainty with warming based on entrenched cold air with the Monday/Tuesday system expect precipitation amounts to not be that high. If temperatures are in the mid 30s to around 40 at onset of the precipitation Thursday afternoon like models are showing there should be mixed precipitation with rain and snow. The mixed precipitation should continue into the evening. Then the rain should change to snow and become all snow by Friday. The amount of warming and the moisture available will affect snowfall amounts. This is still uncertain. The precipitation is moving out Friday night. Behind the system Friday there is still a higher confidence of more cold temperatures with Arctic High pressure building in Friday night through Sunday. Lows again look to be in the single digits Saturday and Sunday mornings. Highs once again in the 20s Saturday and then warming into the 30s Sunday as the large surface high shifts east of the Appalachians by late in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z NAM again looks like it is experiencing feed back issues. And that is a bias of it. It turns the line of precip well north and much earlier over the eastern valley. It could score a coup and certainly has before, but big totals(which aren't on other models) are usually indicative of feedback. We'll see. I dunno,the RAP just did the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in MS Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Hopefully you get all snow and it's a lot! Yes, sir! Keeps trying to change back to sleet/ snow grains. Looks like table salt size bouncing on the shingles. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Just now, jaxjagman said: I dunno,the RAP just did the same The RAP over the eastern valley is usually pretty poor, but we'll see. A system trending northwest is not out of the question at the last minute. OTH, the RAP and NAM being over amped is also not out of the question at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14 Author Share Posted January 14 MRX's wording that 6-8 inches was below WPC guidance is very impressive. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Also MRX basically said what I've been thinking, with persistent snowfall and continuing chilling of the air, there shouldn't be any mechanics in play that would cause the temperatures to warm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: The RAP over the eastern valley is usually pretty poor, but we'll see. A system trending northwest is not out of the question at the last minute. OTH, the RAP and NAM being over amped is also not out of the question at this range. I still dunno,we usually have warn air in place here and start as more of a mix.Its really rare in our parts to already have cold air in place during a winter storm,so theres not gonna be much data incorporated to me than other skill 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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