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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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If it doesn't, then what do we do?

Give the gfs 2 more chances before the euro 12z run tomorrow. We have seen this movie plenty of times where the euro is only model showing snow

It’s always caves
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:


Give the gfs 2 more chances before the euro 12z run tomorrow. We have seen this movie plenty of times where the euro is only model showing snow

It’s always caves

The other models are more GFS like.  It's gonna cave tonight.   I wonder what they did to this model.  It literally is out there on it's own.  Crazy

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The other models are more GFS like.  It's gonna cave tonight.   I wonder what they did to this model.  It literally is out there on it's own.  Crazy
The euro reminds me of the redskins. I still expect the redskins to win because of the 80s and 90s lol

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As far apart the euro is from the Cmc/gfs/icon around jan 15-17, they do seem to agree on a general idea of a planetary wave breaking event and a growing block plus a TPV in South-SE Canada. But there will be so many vorts pinwheeling around the TPV, I have low confidence of any model keying into each vort or any phasing with the SS at this time 

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32 minutes ago, Ji said:


Give the gfs 2 more chances before the euro 12z run tomorrow. We have seen this movie plenty of times where the euro is only model showing snow

It’s always caves

I don't think it's going to be clear for a few more days.  The GFS isn't really skilled at six days, especially with details.  The fact that it has a storm is enough for me. I know models keep improving, but plenty of storms where it's clueless within 72 hours.  

TBH, i just like the idea of legit cold air and seeing what happens.  I'm done with storms where it's 41 in montreal as the storm approaches

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