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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024


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45 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

No need for me to pile on but there’s not much to see here. The cold pattern looks seasonal at best and seasonal isn’t going to get it done. 
 

Not to be doom and gloom but I said a few weeks ago we would all have to adjust our expectations with climate change and here we are. Winter conditions are going to be increasingly unlikely outside of the mts and that’s just our reality. When we do get snow (and we will), enjoy the hell out of it because you’ll never know how long it’ll be until the next round. 

Geez!  Everything is not climate change.  You think they are up in the Sierra Nevada's right now grousing about lack of snow and some sort of climate change responsibility.  Or deep dark Siberia? Unless of course you want to blame their excessive snow on climate change then I have no faith in the blame claim game here. You can attribute every abnormal or foul weather event to climate change.  Makes it easy and convenient for the cc evangelists out there.   Can we blame good comfortable weather stretches on climate change too?  Maybe just pick any event in life that is not perfect. "Hey, woke up constipated this morning.  I blame climate change."

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18 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Geez!  Everything is not climate change.  You think they are up in the Sierra Nevada's right now grousing about lack of snow and some sort of climate change responsibility.  Or deep dark Siberia? Unless of course you want to blame their excessive snow on climate change then I have no faith in the blame claim game here. You can attribute every abnormal or foul weather event to climate change.  Makes it easy and convenient for the cc evangelists out there.   Can we blame good comfortable weather stretches on climate change too?  Maybe just pick any event in life that is not perfect. "Hey, woke up constipated this morning.  I blame climate change."

Respectfully - you can’t make a realistic climate change argument by comparing the Sierra’s to our region. 
 

the bottom line is that our oceans are scorching. Atlantic sea surface temps are on pace with JUNE in February. Our poor pacific pattern is likely caused by how much warmth the basin is holding as well. Snowfall in the south has been trending downward the past 20 years and extreme temps are trending up. This isn’t a “bad spell,” this is climatology. So yes, I can make reasonable assumptions based on climatological facts.

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22 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Geez!  Everything is not climate change.  You think they are up in the Sierra Nevada's right now grousing about lack of snow and some sort of climate change responsibility.  Or deep dark Siberia? Unless of course you want to blame their excessive snow on climate change then I have no faith in the blame claim game here. You can attribute every abnormal or foul weather event to climate change.  Makes it easy and convenient for the cc evangelists out there.   Can we blame good comfortable weather stretches on climate change too?  Maybe just pick any event in life that is not perfect. "Hey, woke up constipated this morning.  I blame climate change."

While it’s not all climate change, throwing out places that have a buffer and don’t struggle to get to freezing for snow as evidence is a poor argument. If you were 20 degrees and now you’re 25 it doesn’t matter. When we struggle to get to 32-34 for snow as is, it’s a much bigger deal even if you’re a degree or two warmer 

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Respectfully - you can’t make a realistic climate change argument by comparing the Sierra’s to our region. 
 
the bottom line is that our oceans are scorching. Atlantic sea surface temps are on pace with JUNE in February. Our poor pacific pattern is likely caused by how much warmth the basin is holding as well. Snowfall in the south has been trending downward the past 20 years and extreme temps are trending up. This isn’t a “bad spell,” this is climatology. So yes, I can make reasonable assumptions based on climatological facts.

Really good points being made here.


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16 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Respectfully - you can’t make a realistic climate change argument by comparing the Sierra’s to our region. 
 

the bottom line is that our oceans are scorching. Atlantic sea surface temps are on pace with JUNE in February. Our poor pacific pattern is likely caused by how much warmth the basin is holding as well. Snowfall in the south has been trending downward the past 20 years and extreme temps are trending up. This isn’t a “bad spell,” this is climatology. So yes, I can make reasonable assumptions based on climatological facts.

But you cannot blame climate change for every anomaly in weather behavior either

Interesting you chose the word "scorching"

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28 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Respectfully - you can’t make a realistic climate change argument by comparing the Sierra’s to our region. 
 

the bottom line is that our oceans are scorching. Atlantic sea surface temps are on pace with JUNE in February. Our poor pacific pattern is likely caused by how much warmth the basin is holding as well. Snowfall in the south has been trending downward the past 20 years and extreme temps are trending up. This isn’t a “bad spell,” this is climatology. So yes, I can make reasonable assumptions based on climatological facts.

How is the pacific looking? Places like Seattle and Portland,  for example have done very well the last few years. Just because the trough sets up on the west coast doesn't equal climate change. 

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32 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

While it’s not all climate change, throwing out places that have a buffer and don’t struggle to get to freezing for snow as evidence is a poor argument. If you were 20 degrees and now you’re 25 it doesn’t matter. When we struggle to get to 32-34 for snow as is, it’s a much bigger deal even if you’re a degree or two warmer 

Similarly, you could say Boston doesn’t live on the margins for temps, yet they are also in a snow drought relative to their normal.

My wag is, yes, our background state has shifted to our detriment, but I would chalk the past 5 years up more to total shit patterns for the whole east coast.

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2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

If yall want to argue climate change then make a thread.  Please keep it out of the mid range thread please.  

I agree completely.  Would also add not to bring it up as a contributing factor here either.  Blame what's happening in the forecast models (Plenty showing on those currently to go around :) )

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Look how different H5/sfc is prestorm on the 12Z GEFS vs just 24 hours ago:

24 hours ago- split flow with sfc Canadian high pressing into upper SE from N stream ahead of storm while suppressed low forms well down in W Gulf on ST stream; note H5 hts flow (follow lt blue, for example) from Dakotas ESE to Mid Atlantic states, a perfect pattern to provide just enough cold to the SE without an overpowering plunge of cold, dry:

IMG_9177.thumb.png.60526691c55f2d7acb45a36367531452.png
 

Latest: N stream instead gives up with Canadian high no longer pushing cold air into SE; H5 hts flow, including lt blue, from Dakotas E to NEng instead of ESE to MidAtlantic; W GOM low much further N/no longer suppressed 

IMG_9178.thumb.png.7f7d0bc0f283c43920b53104bdc856f0.png

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19 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

If yall want to argue climate change then make a thread.  Please keep it out of the mid range thread please.  

I can assure you that me making a link between climate change and how it impacts our mid range pattern is a lot more on topic than anything else on this platform the past 3 weeks.

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25 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

If yall want to argue climate change then make a thread.  Please keep it out of the mid range thread please.  

 

20 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

I agree completely.  Would also add not to bring it up as a contributing factor here either.  Blame what's happening in the forecast models (Plenty showing on those currently to go around :) )

I started a thread for bashing of this winter. Let the discussion begin 

 

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49 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

But you cannot blame climate change for every anomaly in weather behavior either

Interesting you chose the word "scorching"

Last point on this since we’ve been asked to return to the wishcasting for snow comments to stay on topic. 
 

im by no means arguing that every anomaly is related to climate change. I made a point that we’re seeing less and less winter weather in the south. This predates 5 years of poor east coast patterns. Heck, take winter out of the equation and just look at the overall averages for the past 20 years and you can see the trend. Again, you’re absolutely right that we can’t blame every specific event on the climate but the trend is not our friend.

 

edit: and yes, scorching is the best way to describe the ocean when its temps are on par with mid-summer. 

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