Jan Medium/Long Range Disco: Winter is coming

[Heisy]

I know this isn’t horrible but it’s frustrating we can’t get the cold anomalies farther SE. they just want to hang in central conus .looks like a def warm up between 8-11th before this hopefully pushes east, well see


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[Shad]

fantasy land gfs says we will go through a period after Jan 13th where we may not go above freezing for quite some time......of course this will change by the 18z

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I know this isn’t horrible but it’s frustrating we can’t get the cold anomalies farther SE. they just want to hang in central conus .looks like a def warm up between 8-11th before this hopefully pushes east, well see


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Gefs similar. Just happy not to see the trough further west 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I know this isn’t horrible but it’s frustrating we can’t get the cold anomalies farther SE. they just want to hang in central conus .looks like a def warm up between 8-11th before this hopefully pushes east, well see


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Look at the surface. It's cold. The 'warm up' is around the 9th-10th on the GEPS verbatim, then colder air pushes eastward. Almost the entire country is below avg on that panel.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, looks like a couple inches but 200+ hours out, I don’t really care what the snowmaps show.  Just nice to see the threat at this stage.

Exactly. It's too funny how some folks are already out beyond mid month analyzing the back end (possibly?) of the better pattern while there are legit threats to track in the MR and LR. To the proud few here....don't ever change.

[psuhoffman]

52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I never thought this period between today and the 7-10th would be frigid. But I have to say I’m disappointed that it’s not even seasonable. The storm on the 4th and 7th “should” at least be frozen majority for the N/W burbs.

When we get this…

and it’s just not cold enough…I dunno am I the crazy one?  
 

And yes I know we’re recovering from a torch but isn’t that part of this same rinse repeat cycle where any warm up is a compete torch then when we get a better pattern it’s too warm. If it takes 2-3 weeks to recover how often do we get a good pattern to last that long?  

49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It still can be. Maybe not a pure all-snow event, but if timed right (happens at night, NS vort leads a bit bringing a push of colder air) we could maybe get a mixed R/S event on the lowlands with elevation snowfall. 

and if Mars is in alignment with Jupiter and the full harvest moon during a solar eclipse then maybe… 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs similar. Just happy not to see the trough further west 

That’s slightly better than yesterday but still garbage. That isn’t a nao block it’s a WAR that extends into the nao domain. We’re on the eastern edge of the trough with no mechanism to stop any amplified wave from cutting. We could hope for a progressive wave but any strong storm would be rain. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs similar. Just happy not to see the trough further west 

I think this is what we want....not some sharp trough aimed at the SE. A central us centered broad trof will work...just need to time waves correctly.

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When we get this…

and it’s just not cold enough…I dunno am I the crazy one?  
 

And yes I know we’re recovering from a torch but isn’t that part of this same rinse repeat cycle where any warm up is a compete torch then when we get a better pattern it’s too warm. If it takes 2-3 weeks to recover how often do we get a good pattern to last that long?  

and if Mars is in alignment with Jupiter and the full harvest moon during a solar eclipse then maybe… 

Not sure why my comment deserved a snarky retort, but it’s always been the case that we need stuff to line up right to get snow here. Cold air is the #1 ingredient and my comment is about what it takes to get enough cold air to snow for these 2 threats. Otherwise it’s not gonna work. I know that.  

[AtlanticWx]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

That’s slightly better than yesterday but still garbage. That isn’t a nao block it’s a WAR that extends into the nao domain. We’re on the eastern edge of the trough with no mechanism to stop any amplified wave from cutting. We could hope for a progressive wave but any strong storm would be rain. 

wasn't this expected? mjo forcing is supposed to go into MC around this time isn't it? we're not in a nina, i don't really get the worry about some immovable SE ridge

[AtlanticWx]

i don't really get the sentiment across all the forums for canceling winter anyway. the mid point for major storms in ninos like these in the mid atlantic is early february. 75% of winter hasn't even started based off major storms by january 20th. we're fine

[CAPE]

The 7th looks cold enough. The 10th has been problematic due the the NS energy and likelihood of a primary OV/GL low. If that tracks NW ofc we are going to warm for a couple days.

Anyway back to the 7th-

The primary issue on the 12z run is the track is a bit further SE. Nice problem to have at this juncture imo.

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s slightly better than yesterday but still garbage. That isn’t a nao block it’s a WAR that extends into the nao domain. We’re on the eastern edge of the trough with no mechanism to stop any amplified wave from cutting. We could hope for a progressive wave but any strong storm would be rain. 

Very Nina like which would keep the storm track over or west of us with cold/dry in between. I’m repeating myself but let’s up that ridge can slide east closer to mid month 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I think this is what we want....not some sharp trough aimed at the SE. A central us centered broad trof will work...just need to time waves correctly.

In my neck of the woods this is the type of setup that has worked pretty well multiple times in recent winters. A well timed healthy wave tracking along the boundary for a moderate snow event. And let me be clear- IDGAF about a KU.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

In my neck of the woods this is the type of setup that has worked pretty well multiple times in recent winters. A well timed healthy wave tracking along the boundary for a moderate snow event. And let me be clear- IDGAF about a KU.

wonder why we haven’t seen any posts about this, but we’ll use the GEFS to say that the planets might have to align for it to be cold enough to snow lmao

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not sure why my comment deserved a snarky retort, but it’s always been the case that we need stuff to line up right to get snow here. Cold air is the #1 ingredient and my comment is about what it takes to get enough cold air to snow for these 2 threats. Otherwise it’s not gonna work. I know that.  

Sorry I didn’t mean it to be snarky towards you. The point I was inarticulate in making was that even in a pattern that’s almost exactly what we wait for, in January, we’re looking for 10,000 things to break our way to  be cold enough.  That’s what it’s supposed to be like in a bad pattern. Remember when we used to actually luck into snow in a bad pattern. Like Feb 1997. Go look at that week where we got a 4-8” snow. It was a garbage pattern. But a few things broke out way and with a thread the needle perfect SW pass we got snow in an otherwise warm crap pattern. 
 

Now every crap pattern is a torch straight from Hades with no hope of snow anywhere within 500 miles of here and we need a million things to go right each in a great long wave pattern.  
 

I still think we get to better chances later but the early returns are disappointing. 

10 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

wasn't this expected? mjo forcing is supposed to go into MC around this time isn't it? we're not in a nina, i don't really get the worry about some immovable SE ridge

I didn’t say it was correct or permanent. I simply said that look right there wouldn’t be conducive to snow here.  I haven’t did into today’s gfs package. Yesterday’s was troubling in that at the end the forcing was in a bad place and the pacific patter was regressing. It was not heading the right way. But I said I think it’s wrong. Todays run looks somewhat better but still not good at the end. 

[brooklynwx99]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When we get this…

and it’s just not cold enough…I dunno am I the crazy one?  
 

And yes I know we’re recovering from a torch but isn’t that part of this same rinse repeat cycle where any warm up is a compete torch then when we get a better pattern it’s too warm. If it takes 2-3 weeks to recover how often do we get a good pattern to last that long?  

and if Mars is in alignment with Jupiter and the full harvest moon during a solar eclipse then maybe… 

it literally is cold enough to snow on the 7th though. this is why your point is lost on some. it takes a week to recover from like a +5 month, and it is cold enough for the risk on the 7th

[Ji]

Luckily is an operational in Fantasy land but this does not great

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

In my neck of the woods this is the type of setup that has worked pretty well multiple times in recent winters. A well timed healthy wave tracking along the boundary for a moderate snow event. And let me be clear- IDGAF about a KU.

The period you’re referring to has been the least snowy in our region’s history. Why would we be rooting for that pattern to continue and expect better results?  

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Ji said:

not even close. See you guy in early February.

ok. see you then!

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Luckily is an operational in Fantasy land but this does not great

suppressed anyway

[Ji]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

suppressed anyway

so supressed and blowtorched lol?

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The period you’re referring to has been the least snowy in our region’s history. Why would we be rooting for that pattern to continue and expect better results?  

What period are you referring to? And what pattern am I rooting for?

[Heisy]

Hope this is wrong, it just never wants to come east lol.


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[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

so supressed and blowtorched lol?

if it could climb the coast with any speed it might actually be cold enough at the surface but as you pointed out 850s are shot... it's notsopretty

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

so supressed and blowtorched lol?

Not a torch, but that low tracking over the GLs doesn't help the low/mid levels. Op run 8 days out so who cares.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

if it could climb the coast with any speed it might actually be cold enough at the surface but as you pointed out 850s are shot... it's notsopretty

at least its coming before our mid month warmup thats still on the table!

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it literally is cold enough to snow on the 7th though. this is why your point is lost on some. it takes a week to recover from like a +5 month, and it is cold enough for the risk on the 7th

it's marginally cold enough... by like the 5th wave since the long wave pattern actually changed.  I say marginally because yes if everything goes perfectly wrt surface and upper level track and heavy enough precip...yes it will snow.  But even then we have no margin for error.  If the storm cuts at all...forget it.  There is no depth to the cold even by then, we are left with a thread the needle scenario despite being about 10 days into a better longwave pattern by then.  

 

It's not horrible.  I still expect better looks later.  But its disapointing a little that even after a week and several waves the depth of the cold is barely good enough, IN A GOOD PATTERN!  We used to be able to luck into snow in a bad pattern now we need to luck into it in a good one.

The debate about the GEFS is silly because I think its just wrong...but I am annoyed by those that see the exact same long wave pattern that has been an utter and total worse snow period in our history fail for 7 years and are like...in my best Tommy Boy voice "hmmm its not so bad".  

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, CAPE said:

Not a torch, but that low tracking over the GLs doesn't help the low/mid levels. Op run 8 days out so who cares.

I was almost going to risk something positive by saying I thought the previous wave on Jan 4/5 worked out better because i thought it was a 50/50 low... was that right? or was the timing just off regardless?

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sorry I didn’t mean it to be snarky towards you. The point I was inarticulate in making was that even in a pattern that’s almost exactly what we wait for, in January, we’re looking for 10,000 things to break our way to  be cold enough.  That’s what it’s supposed to be like in a bad pattern. Remember when we used to actually luck into snow in a bad pattern. Like Feb 1997. Go look at that week where we got a 4-8” snow. It was a garbage pattern. But a few things broke out way and with a thread the needle perfect SW pass we got snow in an otherwise warm crap pattern. 
 

Now every crap pattern is a torch straight from Hades with no hope of snow anywhere within 500 miles of here and we need a million things to go right each in a great long wave pattern.  
 

I still think we get to better chances later but the early returns are disappointing. 

I didn’t say it was correct or permanent. I simply said that look right there wouldn’t be conducive to snow here.  I haven’t did into today’s gfs package. Yesterday’s was troubling in that at the end the forcing was in a bad place and the pacific patter was regressing. It was not heading the right way. But I said I think it’s wrong. Todays run looks somewhat better but still not good at the end. 

I hear what you’re saying. Even in a great pattern, and even if we have plenty of cold air, we still wouldn’t expect to get a hit with every storm. Take the 1980s for example, it was plenty cold but many storms were misses, suppressed, or badly timed that we got rain or sleet. In those cases, cold air wasn’t a problem. Something else was. Now? Cold air is sorely lacking after the canada torch and in this specific case, we DO need 10,000 things to come together right for it to snow. 

Maybe later in the season cold air will be more abundant and we’d only need a few more things to go right.

And by the way, we already got snow in a bad pattern this season. Dec 10th, I believe.