DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Gorgeous run. We are getting close to locking this in. Just need the GFS to wobble back SE a little and we all are gold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The mids are fine at DC. Never gets close. But surface is 34-35 up 95 during the whole event. That’s not usually how this goes. Typically if anything the mid level warm later pushes further NW than the surface. If the euro is 2 degrees too warm at the surface this was a 12” snow in DC and Baltimore. I won’t say it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The mids are fine at DC. Never gets close. But surface is 34-35 up 95 during the whole event. That’s not usually how this goes. Typically if anything the mid level warm later pushes further NW than the surface. If the euro is 2 degrees too warm at the surface this was a 12” snow in DC and Baltimore. I won’t say it. this dual jet signature is straight out of a textbook 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The mids are fine at DC. Never gets close. But surface is 34-35 up 95 during the whole event. That’s not usually how this goes. Typically if anything the mid level warm later pushes further NW than the surface. If the euro is 2 degrees too warm at the surface this was a 12” snow in DC and Baltimore. I won’t say it. A rainy mix in DC due to a super shitty BL is not off the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Gorgeous run. We are getting close to locking this in. Just need the GFS to wobble back SE a little and we all are gold its monday night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 kuchera more than 10:1?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 can a wxbell please update the snowmap. thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: its monday night lol The clock says Tuesday morning 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Deck Pic said: its monday night lol lol. We are not locking anything in. But I will say I’ve observed in the last few years since the major upgrades to the gfs and euro, there is a pattern where they start to narrow in on the general synoptic solution around 140-160 hours out. After that the changes are more subtle. We’re marginal so subtle could be big for our ground truth but once inside day 6 usually it’s not adjustments of 500 miles like it used to be. They even picked up on that crazy anafront wave from 5-6 days out! They still have limitations but since the last upgrade they seem to start identifying the basic idea a couple days earlier than before. I know we haven’t had many chances to test this locally but I’ve tracked storms for my various ski interests over the last few years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: can a wxbell please update the snowmap. thx The map I posted above is it. 6” crosses DC on Kuchera. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: can a wxbell please update the snowmap. thx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 13 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Giddy up 8-12 around DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Worth staying up for the Euro (and having an earthquake) but it reminds me a bit of the 12/16/20 storm where 4-5 days out we looked good for significant snow but the mix line quickly punched into the immediate metro. It was still a pretty fun storm with some high initial rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I think the gefs is starting to cave in the long range. 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks...looks like my sister's place in pocono pines gets clobbered...may have to road trip. This feels like a 3.75" event for me with 8-12" for you. It'd be a nice start tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: 8-12 around DC I think we'll probably mix. But still lots of time. seems like a 3-6" snowstorm for immediate DC metro, with some rain and mixing if someone made me forecast this weekend right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Thanks...looks like my sister's place in pocono pines gets clobbered...may have to road trip. This feels like a 3.75" event for me with 8-12" for you. It'd be a nice start tho That area should do very well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think the gefs is starting to cave in the long range. yup. certainly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Should we like...make Wednesday AM the checkpoint for making a thread for a weekend threat? Although it seems this time we may already be close to knowing that this will indeed affect some portion of the subforum at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Subtle but eps is slightly colder Saturday morning leading into the event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Not so subtle…definitely colder 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Worth staying up for the Euro (and having an earthquake) but it reminds me a bit of the 12/16/20 storm where 4-5 days out we looked good for significant snow but the mix line quickly punched into the immediate metro. It was still a pretty fun storm with some high initial rates. Thought I felt an earthquake! Checked USGS a couple minutes afterward, but it wasn't posted yet, then figured it nothing. Thanks for mentioning it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We’ve actually had some runs with marginally crappy tracks produce decent results over the last 24 hours. This helps. Remember a few days ago what the airmass looked like leading in. The boundary was to our north. This is much closer to what we want the thermal boundary look look leading in. I said I wanted 5 degrees colder than that gfs run. This is maybe 3-4 colder. Will have to do. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 EPS getting colder is a big deal. that HP is really pressing 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 39 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: A rainy mix in DC due to a super shitty BL is not off the table. Onset time 6pm Sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 EPS 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Onset time 6pm Sat? Euro op is around 3 for DC and it’s the slowest of all guidance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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