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Pittsburgh, Pa Winter 2023-24 Thread.


meatwad
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Just now, Burghblizz said:

Go to banter with the trolling.  Taking this thread back. Yesterday was fun with actual weather and weather conversations. Don’t need 30 more posts because a ruler missed by .1, or was 2 miles in the wrong spot. Clutter. 

Agreed

 Let's focus on maybe next weekend getting some frozen precipitation.

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Getting some light snow, theres a weak band just to my North. Just enough for that deep winter look and feel.

As advertised next week we thaw, its after that which has degraded. Looks like*maybe* a chance at something 30th time frame before the PNA ridge rolls east. MJO forecast shows the wave dying in 6, rather than progressing through 7-8-1. That probably plays some roll in the warmer looks. We also lost the blocking for now. Both of those (MJO / NAO) are not forecast far out with great accuracy, so if that flips could see some major changes on the models after next week.

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Believe it or not we are around an inch above normal for snowfall for the month of January. Last year only .9 inches fell compared to 9.9. We are still way behind the average to date but Febuary and March could be rocking after this break in the pattern. 

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1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Believe it or not we are around an inch above normal for snowfall for the month of January. Last year only .9 inches fell compared to 9.9. We are still way behind the average to date but Febuary and March could be rocking after this break in the pattern. 

I like the positive mindset. 

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42 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Not to mention it's a Longshot but we could possibly get some snow next weekend. Need some good trends but it wouldn't take much in prime climo.

There does seem to be a little break between the unseasonable late week warmth and the unseasonable early February warmth, both of which seem to be a sure bet at this point. Hopefully something pans out in that window.

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11 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

GFS is close to something for next Sunday. Good track - just not quite enough cold.

Probably a good idea to put this one down for few days and just check back around Thursday :)   Low probability as it looks now, but falling at peak climo for cold. 

That's the only thing I'd say has working for it is peak climo. Need some cold air to show up but it's possible. Still a long ways out so you like you said may just wait until Thursday and see if it's still there.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1136 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 OHZ039-048>050-057>059-068-PAZ021-029-073-077-078-WVZ001>003-230300- /O.EXA.KPBZ.WW.Y.0009.240123T0600Z-240123T1700Z/ Tuscarawas-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Muskingum-Guernsey- Belmont-Noble-Allegheny-Washington-Westmoreland-Indiana-Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio- Including the cities of New Kensington, Monessen, Indiana, Armagh, Caldwell, Martins Ferry, New Philadelphia, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Greensburg, Wheeling, St. Clairsville, Wellsburg, Latrobe, Cadiz, Weirton, Murrysville, Canonsburg, Coshocton, Dover, Steubenville, Washington, Cambridge, Lower Burrell, Follansbee, and Zanesville 1136 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total snow accumulations up to one inch north of I-80 and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio, southwest and western Pennsylvania, and northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM to noon EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Please report snow or ice accumulations by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh. && $$

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12 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Take a look at the sounding for the HRRR. Brutal temp profile for ZR. 25° at the surface. 

Screenshot 2024-01-22 at 1.23.58 PM.png

Yeah not a particular fan of this scenario. Last few HRRR runs have trended precip shield north of the city though leaving us in a dry slot.

 

im fine with that. 

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