mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: He is one of the most famous to do what you were suggesting...was being sarcastic. Oh, I know. My point was his shenanigans wouldn't be possible if he didn't have something to hang his hat on. Not that he wouldn't still try, but the ensembles are both a sword and shield to him...using them to come up with his weenie fantasy storms and the reason why it's not his fault when he fails. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Oh, I know. My point was his shenanigans wouldn't be possible if he didn't have something to hang his hat on. Not that he wouldn't still try, but the ensembles are both a sword and shield to him...using them to come up with his weenie fantasy storms and the reason why it's not his fault when he fails. We agree on this point not just for Joe B, but the general way LR forecasts are conceived sometimes. It is not the forecasting of events such as NAO and MJO positions, it is 1) Assuming the models are right which I think is crazy 2) Assuming what will happen based on previous events even if the models nail future indices. Great to talk about and theorize, not so great to make statements that things WILL happen. Not pointed at anyone (except when someone replies to me and acts like I am wrong because the 15-day ensembles said so) vs. a opine on why we get disappointments sometimes. Edit-Man, the MA panic room is losing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 CTP with the all time spread. Could be nothing, could be big. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Eps keep getting better for us Bubbler, but operational just chuckles at us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps keep getting better for us Bubbler, but operational just chuckles at us. Keeps me interested for today. Maybe NAM scores a coup and stays looking similar? lol rgem was squashed south at 6z again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, CAPE said: 0z Ens runs look active. Both the GEFS and EPS indicate potential for the 18th and the 20-21st, and then ofc the PSU baby around the 24th. No details. Temperatures look below avg from the 17th on(colder on the EPS), but nothing super cold. The pattern continues to look volatile. Some of you need to stop living/dying with LR op runs. I agree with this 100000000000% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Keeps me interested for today. Maybe NAM scores a coup and stays looking similar? lol rgem was squashed south at 6z again Just cannot believe that BWI gets 2" with the temps. Would really take a rapid deepening once to the SE. Snow on the way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I agree with this 100000000000% More tracking coming hopefully...just not a slam dunk, IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Just cannot believe that BWI gets 2" with the temps. Would really take a rapid deepening once to the SE. Snow on the way out. I’d be out south of M/D, just looking at our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, DDweatherman said: I’d be out south of M/D, just looking at our neck of the woods. I guess the reason I said that is if we want to believe/hope for the EPS mean to be reality, would you not have to also take what is shows to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: You guys have great patience on this forum listening to all the LSV talk (including from me). Props to you. Bubb it’’s all good! That’s where the majority lives. Enjoy Reading you guys posts. Set a record high up here yesterday 58 degrees. 40 degrees this morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Ensembles, extended products & pro forecasters absolutely nailed the pattern change between the 10th & 15th from forecasts several weeks ago…. We are actively already tracking a Winter storm threat in that window. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just cannot believe that BWI gets 2" with the temps. Would really take a rapid deepening once to the SE. Snow on the way out. Fwiw, and it ain't much, the 6z Eps had everything a touch SW of 0z and around 3 hours slower. Odds of 4" or more are reasonably decent and a little higher than 0z. Understand, I am posting this for afterwards to prove how they suck. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: You guys have great patience on this forum listening to all the LSV talk (including from me). Props to you. I wish there were a lot more people here from the northern part of the state, not just us here in North Central PA but NE PA too. But there aren't. So we rely on you guys further south to keep things going. You do us a pretty big favor, if you think about it. You all keep the subforum going and I am very grateful for that. The northern handful can just chime in with opinions and reports as best we can. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 16 minutes ago, pawatch said: Bubb it’’s all good! That’s where the majority lives. Enjoy Reading you guys posts. Set a record high up here yesterday 58 degrees. 40 degrees this morning 6 minutes ago, CoralRed said: I wish there were a lot more people here from the northern part of the state, not just us here in North Central PA but NE PA too. But there aren't. So we rely on you guys further south to keep things going. You do us a pretty big favor, if you think about it. You all keep the subforum going and I am very grateful for that. The northern handful can just chime in with opinions and reports as best we can. Back when these types of forums covered larger areas, there was a lot of angst since what is good for one is not for the other. People in NYC and NE would hate on MA people when cheering on a storm that missed NYC to the south. Since all areas of the East US were posting in the same thread it was tough to not have people get mad. Glad you guys do not hate when we root for a situation that may leave you dry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, CAPE said: I see some nice things for that period. @CAPE is saving me a lot of time this morning… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Low of 38 here. MDT busted quite low at 35. Between that and a high of only 57 yesterday, no records were even threatened. We’ll see what today brings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @CAPE is saving me a lot of time this morning… Here's the main problem I have with posting only some of the maps. He posted a 5 day period off the Gefs that showed a decent 5h, below normal temps, and mean slp to our south. I checked to see how much qpf fell in south central PA during those 5 days and it was .7". But snowfall was only 2" at 10:1. So that means despite the favorable looking 5 day averages, only 28.5% fell as snow. But with mean temps below normal, it's assumed most is snow. I know you can't post every map every time, but by looking a little deeper it's around climo for February. Did anyone come away with that impression from those 3 maps alone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Back when these types of forums covered larger areas, there was a lot of angst since what is good for one is not for the other. People in NYC and NE would hate on MA people when cheering on a storm that missed NYC to the south. Since all areas of the East US were posting in the same thread it was tough to not have people get mad. Glad you guys do not hate when we root for a situation that may leave you dry. The old live model threads were nice because there were 4 or 5 Mets chiming in live on what they were seeing. But then weenies would jump in saying things like “it’s coming north!, just because the QPF shading over their house ticked north. Meanwhile, the storm was the other direction. At one point, non-red taggers got banned from them. It’s better now in terms of focused content, but back then you would have more interaction with a larger group (which, yes, sometimes led to fights ) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6z GEFS & 6z EPS Both continue to march the “purple” further south. Harrisburg & York both get Warning level snow over 5 inches on both ensembles. Heck, the purple even reached MDT on the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Here's the main problem I have with posting only some of the maps. He posted a 5 day period off the Gefs that showed a decent 5h, below normal temps, and mean slp to our south. I checked to see how much qpf fell in south central PA during those 5 days and it was .7". But snowfall was only 2" at 10:1. So that means despite the favorable looking 5 day averages, only 28.5% fell as snow. But with mean temps below normal, it's assumed most is snow. I know you can't post every map every time, but by looking a little deeper it's around climo for February. Did anyone come away with that impression from those 3 maps alone? We just need to sit back & watch the individual storm threats emerge. Last week, some were skeptical that the pattern would change & there would be no chance early next week, yet here we are…. The players are just entering the field- right on time- now we need to see how the game unfolds…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: We just need to sit back & watch the individual storm threats emerge. Last week, some were skeptical that the pattern would change & there would be no chance early next week, yet here we are…. The players are just entering the field- right on time- now we need to see how the game unfolds…. Bliz, I think the problem is the pattern is not the pattern advertised last week. If it was, there wouldn't be the concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: We just need to sit back & watch the individual storm threats emerge. Last week, some were skeptical that the pattern would change & there would be no chance early next week, yet here we are…. The players are just entering the field- right on time- now we need to see how the game unfolds…. You and others were adamant at times that the pattern change was mid-month, not now. When the V-Day threat looked lost the mantra was "well the pattern change is not happening until the 15th, we all need to be patient" so kicking the can forward and saying the pattern already changed seems off a bit. Definitely agree with your highlighted comment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Bliz, I think the problem is the pattern is not the pattern advertised last week. If it was, there wouldn't be the concern.I think it may be easy to think of it this way. Mid Dec December to Mid March is 16 weeks. Over 10 years that's 160 weeks. Out of those 160 weeks I'd say we get 4-8 that match what you would consider the perfect pattern that deliver. The violtility produced from The change between patterns, good/bad also tend to be associated more with our bigger storms. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Shitty nam ready to call curtains for southern crew, guess it’s time for the gfs to come back south at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12z NAM makes this event mostly all snow for just about everyone north of the MD line. It cut back on precipitation this run as the low exits more east than northeast this run. This track would work especially if it juices back up in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12z NAM makes this event mostly all snow for just about everyone north of the MD line. It cut back on precipitation this run as the low exits more east than northeast this run. This track would work especially if it juices back up in future runs. And for comparison, this is the Rgem. Literally nothing for our forum and most of NE. I've never seen such a stark difference between these 2 models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Here is the 12z NAM precipitation. It cut back for the LSV on to the east & north. 6z top 12z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, mitchnick said: And for comparison, this is the Rgem. Literally nothing for our forum and most of NE. I've never seen such a stark difference between these 2 models. With some of the runs I’ve seen, this doesn’t seem impossible at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: With some of the runs I’ve seen, this doesn’t seem impossible at all. The Nam sucked because it was pushed south by the northern stream right before the best panel or 2. Rgem muscles the storm off the coast so fast the cold never gets involved. Global 12z modeling will be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now