Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: 18z GEFS mean still involved most of PA but was def lean on QPF. Total QPF mean Let’s have a look more specifically. Here’s MDT’s 24hr snowfall on the individual members. The majority show at least advisory snowfall, while only about 1/3 crack warning criteria (5”). And there’s about 8 members that would be sub-advisory type snowfall. This was a really progressive run on the GFS/GEFS this go around. Is it right? I dunno.. Usually Gulf lows find a way to have a nice precip shield with it and I think this might have went a bit far on the dry side. The more progressive/less QPF trend was noted just about everything today though. This thing is just starting to come onshore on the west coast, so the next few runs will be interesting to see. Good points & I think we will see somewhat of a juicing back up during the final 48 hours prior to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 CTP is talking dirty. “There is increasing potential for a plowable to potentially heavy snowfall across parts of Central PA Saturday into Sunday. Another winter storm could impact the area during the first half of next week.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Also, the pattern has changed & this potential event fits the new pattern. ”Expectations in check” likely means don’t expect a foot like some Ops showed yesterday. A Warning level event is certainly on the table, but average amounts will probably be closer to 6 instead of 12 at this time, so my expectations are certainly in check, Lol! So you're saying that Elliott, who is a great met, is totally wrong when he said that the models do NOT fit the pattern? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18z Euro EPS vs 12z, still okay but means are down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: 18z Euro EPS vs 12z, still okay but means are down a bit. Our vort is now 1 with the trailing vort and the western (back) looked deeper on the Eps this run. If this trend continues, it won't be rain that's our problem but sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: So you're saying that Elliott, who is a great met, is totally wrong when he said that the models do NOT fit the pattern? I know he is a great Met, but I don’t agree if he is saying the pattern hasn’t changed this week from the pattern that we had around Christmas. If he is just saying the models from yesterday that showed some major foot plus amounts do not fit the pattern, then I’ll agree with that point. Like CTP said, a plowable snow is increasing in potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Our vort is now 1 with the trailing vort and the western (back) looked deeper on the Eps this run. If this trend continues, it won't be rain that's our problem but sun. Lol, I’ll ride with the 18z Euro Control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: So you're saying that Elliott, who is a great met, is totally wrong when he said that the models do NOT fit the pattern? What is meant by fits the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: So you're saying that Elliott, who is a great met, is totally wrong when he said that the models do NOT fit the pattern? Speaking of keeping expectations in check, lol. I’d make a sizable bet stuff like this is what he’s referring to. I just took that screenshot so 5hrs ago was after the 12z suite today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, I’ll ride with the 18z Euro Control Can you post the 12z Control? Tia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 SS out of prison? News to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just a reminder, if this thing is starting around Noon, give or take, on Saturday, we're only 3 and a half days away from start essentially. I mention it because I saw 5 days thrown around in some of the other forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Speaking of keeping expectations in check, lol. I’d make a sizable bet stuff like this is what he’s referring to. I just took that screenshot so 5hrs ago was after the 12z suite today. Clowns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Speaking of keeping expectations in check, lol. I’d make a sizable bet stuff like this is what he’s referring to. I just took that screenshot so 5hrs ago was after the 12z suite today. Jesus Christ. This kind of shit should be illegalSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Can you post the 12z Control? Tia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Harrisburg gets an extra inch on the 18z Control. I’ll take it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I just watched ABC-27 Eric Finkenbinder’s forecast from this Evening & he said they are thinking around 6 inches of snow at this time, but need to monitor the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: I just watched ABC-27 Eric Finkenbinder’s forecast from this Evening & he said they are thinking around 6 inches of snow at this time, but need to monitor the next few days. I’m not staying up for the 0z runs tonight. I’m going to wake up in the morning and just look at Amwx subs to see how many (or not) pages have been added prior to looking at the runs early tomorrow AM. I’ll know if it’s good or bad off that alone. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said: I’m not staying up for the 0z runs tonight. I’m going to wake up in the morning and just look at Amwx subs to see how many (or not) pages have been added prior to looking at the runs early tomorrow AM. I’ll know if it’s good or bad off that alone. Nice play ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, paweather said: What is meant by fits the pattern? Could be a couple of things. I won’t put words in anyone’s mouth but here’s my objective thoughts on some of the cons of this setup. Precip issues are still possible in the southern tier even with these lower QPF/progressive solutions depending on the thermals.. something we won’t have a firm handle of till we’re in range of the high res guidance. I do think we’ll see mostly snow in here from this, but the possibility of some mixing in the southern tier still exists. We’ve changed the pattern around to where it’s cold enough and we have a high available for this system, but it’s still not significantly cold here.. just cold that’s average. The 500mb pattern out west is not typically what you would see for a C-PA snowstorm. We’re always looking for the big western ridge and associated amplification to run a coastal storm all the way up the coast and we have the complete opposite with the -PNA setting up and a big western trough. What makes this work is having some downstream blocking and 50/50 low allowing this shortwave that kicks out from the southwest go underneath us. What’s being pointed out by some is these weaker solutions late today along with being faster come from more energy dumping into the southwestern trough (which eventually becomes our next headache next week) making for a weaker shortwave (that becomes our weekend storm) that kicks out. That kind of evolution takes away the top end potential. This is still probably a half decent event but not a blockbuster 1-2 foot type thing. More of 4-8” kind of event is what I’m thinking right now for the swath of heaviest snow… which I think about anyone in here would be happy with. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Could be a couple of things. I won’t put words in anyone’s mouth but here’s my objective thoughts on some of the cons of this setup. Precip issues are still possible in the southern tier even with these lower QPF/progressive solutions depending on the thermals.. something we won’t have a firm handle of till we’re in range of the high res guidance. I do think we’ll see mostly snow in here from this, but the possibility of some mixing in the southern tier still exists. We’ve changed the pattern around to where it’s cold enough and we have a high available for this system, but it’s still not significantly cold here.. just cold that’s average. The 500mb pattern out west is not typically what you would see for a C-PA snowstorm. We’re always looking for the big western ridge and associated amplification to run a coastal storm all the way up the coast and we have the complete opposite with the -PNA setting up and a big western trough. What makes this work is having some downstream blocking and 50/50 low allowing this shortwave that kicks out from the southwest go underneath us. What’s being pointed out by some is these weaker solutions late today along with being faster come from more energy dumping into the southwestern trough (which eventually becomes our next headache next week) making for a weaker shortwave (that becomes our weekend storm) that kicks out. That kind of evolution takes away the top end potential. This is still probably a half decent event but not a blockbuster 1-2 foot type thing. More of 4-8” kind of event is what I’m thinking right now for the swath of heaviest snow… which I think about anyone in here would be happy with. Makes sense thanks Mag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 With the move up in starting time, AM Sat for some here, the Meso's are really coming into play earlier than thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: With the move up in starting time, AM Sat for some here, the Meso's are really coming into play earlier than thought. Trust me. That was going to happen no matter when it started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: With the move up in starting time, AM Sat for some here, the Meso's are really coming into play earlier than thought. Lol, I’m looking forward to what the HRDPS has to say on Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nam has the Low in N. Florida at the end of its 0z run. In step with other suites that have a low sweeping to the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam has the Low in N. Florida at the end of its 0z run. In step with other suites that have a low sweeping to the SE coast. Miller A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Nws Blend of Models cut back with totals, as expected. Not bad though. Per Nws Met who posted in the MA forum, he says it does well but slow to change forecasts vs a regular model suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Raise your hand if you keep refreshing the Icon on TT. Don't be shy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Raise your hand if you keep refreshing the Icon on TT. Don't be shy! I’ve been refreshing the RGEM so I can extrapolate it beyond 84 hours! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Rgem st 84 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024010300&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now