Itstrainingtime Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: For this Jan 6th chance, the Euro was fairly consistent recently until today when it had some back tracking. The GFS has been consistently driving a presence up into the Ohio Valley in different iterations over the past 36 hours except the 12Z Jan 1 run. This 18Z run is quite different than even the 12Z run yesterday. I think as of now, the front piece of energy (with the back being the cutter next week) is losing it ummph and changing the eventual results on the fly. The high and 50/50 to our North is pushing it more on this 18Z run. 24 hours ago, the GFS had a 998 low in the Ohio Valley transferring to a sub 990 low on the coast. On the 18Z GFS today it never gets below 999 and actually came damn close to leaving us all high and dry. And, of course, it is moving MUCH faster. 12-18 hours faster. I am not able to guess what the result will be beyond saying all options seem on the board still. That is a cop out answer, sorry. It's not a cop out, it's a well penned and thought out explanation. And accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 In a matter of 6 hours the GEFS has gone from showing a good 1/3 of its members with an OH/TN Valley Low to just 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 @Blizzard of 93needs some help with this model worries stuff! We been there done that over the years all the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 10 minutes ago, paweather said: @Blizzard of 93needs some help with this model worries stuff! We been there done that over the years all the time He’ll chime in once out of work. Stand by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Yes @Bubbler86it is going to burn me I’m sure but I gotta try everything to get a plowable snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said: He’ll chime in once out of work. Stand by You rang? Lol… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 MU finally said something about the weekend: "snow lovers should keep expectations in check" Also indicated that the pattern does NOT match the model outputs. Detailed analysis tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: You rang? Lol… Bring us some good news sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said: Bring us some good news sir the The 18gfs was great news for the Southern pa counties. So were most of the GEFS members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU finally said something about the weekend: "snow lovers should keep expectations in check" Also indicated that the pattern does NOT match the model outputs. Detailed analysis tomorrow. Expectations being plowable check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The 18gfs was great news for the Southern pa counties. So we're most of the GEFS members. Does that include Lebanon county? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TinGTown Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Hello all! I live in DC but I have a kid that is a freshman at Penn State. I am scheduled to drive to State College on the 7th, the first day the dorms are open for students to return. As it is my first time driving to State College in winter weather, can you help me know what to expect on snow totals and the roads? I really appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Does that include Lebanon county? LOL Like you said, same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, paweather said: Expectations being plowable check. Well, a lot of crews plow at like 2" now, so sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, TinGTown said: Hello all! I live in DC but I have a kid that is a freshman at Penn State. I am scheduled to drive to State College on the 7th, the first day the dorms are open for students to return. As it is my first time driving to State College in winter weather, can you help me know what to expect on snow totals and the roads? I really appreciate it! Shouldn't have a problem. Heavy snow should be overvlate Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 23 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said: Bring us some good news sir Today, the Ops & ensembles still show Warning level snow for most of CTP. The high end foot plus amounts have now been reduced, but are still showing a Warning level event for most. This is mainly due to the speed of the Storm & reduced precipitation amounts. Most of the Op runs have still have Harrisburg near 8 inches of snow, which would be a fantastic way to get our Winter going! Here is a recap of the 12z & 18z Global Ops today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 59 minutes ago, paweather said: @Blizzard of 93needs some help with this model worries stuff! We been there done that over the years all the time We are in a great spot for this event. With the low tracking off of the DelMarVa, we should be able to score a Warning level event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Today, the Ops & ensembles still show Warning level snow for most of CTP. The high end foot plus amounts have now been reduced, but are still showing a Warning level event for most. This is mainly due to the speed of the Storm & reduced precipitation amounts. Most of the Op runs have still have Harrisburg near 8 inches of snow, which would be a fantastic way to get our Winter going! Here is a recap of the 12z & 18z Global Ops today. The Canadian actually keeps the foot in play for many. Maybe it will be right for a change? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 We have a long way to go to pin down the details with timing, amounts & final track. Just wait until we can add in the NAM, RGEM & HRRR to all of this…! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 This went to Hell for me fast lolSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 CTP posted this earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 CTP posted this earlier today.That was clearly before 18z.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 44 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: MU finally said something about the weekend: "snow lovers should keep expectations in check" Also indicated that the pattern does NOT match the model outputs. Detailed analysis tomorrow. Well this ruins the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Well this ruins the evening. Thanks, lol, Im sure it’s canceled & it will be a rain storm now! Get a grip! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 MU finally said something about the weekend: "snow lovers should keep expectations in check" Also indicated that the pattern does NOT match the model outputs. Detailed analysis tomorrow.Me to Elliott: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 @canderson CTP seems confident with 4 days to go. This is for Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @canderson CTP seems confident with 4 days to go. This is for Harrisburg Yep forget model worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, anotherman said: Me to Elliott: Also, the pattern has changed & this potential event fits the new pattern. ”Expectations in check” likely means don’t expect a foot like some Ops showed yesterday. A Warning level event is certainly on the table, but average amounts will probably be closer to 6 instead of 12 at this time, so my expectations are certainly in check, Lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 18z GEFS mean still involved most of PA but was def lean on QPF. Total QPF mean Let’s have a look more specifically. Here’s MDT’s 24hr snowfall on the individual members. The majority show at least advisory snowfall, while only about 1/3 crack warning criteria (5”). And there’s about 8 members that would be sub-advisory type snowfall. This was a really progressive run on the GFS/GEFS this go around. Is it right? I dunno.. Usually Gulf lows find a way to have a nice precip shield with it and I think this might have went a bit far on the dry side. The more progressive/less QPF trend was noted just about everything today though. This thing is just starting to come onshore on the west coast, so the next few runs will be interesting to see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Also, the pattern has changed & this potential event fits the new pattern. ”Expectations in check” likely means don’t expect a foot like some Ops showed yesterday. A Warning level event is certainly on the table, but average amounts will probably be closer to 6 instead of 12 at this time, so my expectations are certainly in check, Lol!I'm thinking Elliott is thinking it swings a little under and to the right more than a rainer.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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