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Central PA Winter 23/24


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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

GFS with a much better look and evolution this go'round.  What's crazy is we're already under four days until this event.  Won't be long until the Meso's are in range ha.  Nothing better during the winter than having one event lead into the next.

I look forward to extrapolating NAM runs for the next 24 hrs.....:D

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Weird how the Gfs really slows down the slp from 84hrs onward. Sorta like it's waiting for something to explode. Lol

verbatim still a little too strung out for much upside (also based on flow at upper levels), but surely can be something workable/plowable.  

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2 hours ago, AccuChris said:

I really like the CTP people and they do a bang up job but this storm was not their finest hour.  Yesterday they had my area in 4-8” with WSW and then last night lowered it to 3-5” and still with a warning.  Im at 5” now and still have an hour or so to go.  Sometimes the NWS folks lean way too heavy on the National Blend Model solution but this storm was horribly predicted via the Canadian suite of products and only late yesterday did the Euro finally catch on

This was a brutal storm to get a handle on. At the time of @Blizzard of 93’s last stand on Saturday night, north central was locked for the best totals on most guidance after things were mostly pretty far north Saturday. Main question at that point was trying to nail down how much of the central and Sus Valley was going to see meaningful accumulating snow on the back end. South trend started Sunday and it was a pretty notable one but it still favored the swath near the I-80 and they issued warnings accordingly and kept watches issued to the south Sunday eve. Still fine at that point for making some tweaks as needed (adding a couple watches or downgrading some warnings to advisories)

Where it really went sideways was yesterday, when everything tightened up and really went south. It’s pretty much go time at that point being under 24hrs til the event starts and now your suddenly looking at a big chunk of warned counties getting little or no snow at all, and southern counties that weren’t in a watch at all looking to be in the axis of best snowfall and warning amounts. There’s not much you can do with a big shift like that in that short of lead time. What I don’t understand is why they didn’t downgrade warnings to advisories back this way (Altoona/State College and surrounding counties), and they even inserted advisory amounts into the warning statements. I’ve never seen that before. This was a frustrating storm here, and definitely for the folks in here to my north. I’m glad a lot of the subforum scored a pretty big event out of this at least. 

 

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Just now, mitchnick said:

Ggem is serving shredded wheat for the weekend.  We toss.

but to the good, if one toggles through 84 w/ GFS/ICON and GEM, surface maps are plenty close enough at this range.  Its all about consensus and they are plenty close for me to keep watching. 

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5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

its really just a NS vort riding the boundary and hopefully gets some help from SS.  get that NS energy to slow down/dive in a tad more, and maybe just maybe we snow on snow in same week.  How cool is that?

If this snow makes it until Saturday...I'll be surprised. 

I'd love to see it though. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

If this snow makes it until Saturday...I'll be surprised. 

I'd love to see it though. 

Is what it is, and if its melted by friday and freshened up by saturday, there are far worse things in life to fret over. 

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53 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Boston is only at 9" for the year

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Still doing better than Minneapolis, that climo station (Twin Cities) is at like 7.3” for the season and averaging +19ºF for the month to date so far. I think it might take a Jan 94 type arctic outbreak to keep them from having the warmest DJF on record at this point. 

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I was just looking at my fuel oil usage (I shop with Shipley, they're pretty good, I like em) for this year versus last year, which I also feel was a warmer winter.

Preface: I keep the thermostat at 63-65 range, which makes the bedrooms 75 or so at night. Last year from 1/3 - 2/13, I used 196 gallons. This year from about that same timeframe, 1/6 - 2/12, I used 110 gallons.

My number for November and December prior are about the same in terms of lesser use this winter.

I am on pace to save a thousand dollars this season versus last, which was also a warm winter.

Cold winters can suck me.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

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I'm exhausted and unable to keep up from all the excitement.  I apologize if any of this has already been mentioned.  First off the snow started accumulating here almost immediately . I believe the temperature was around 37 °F when  the changeover occurred. I also received the majority of my 6.5" in 5 hours . Really nice event all things considered.  I love receiving a wet and heavy 6.5 In my back yard from time to time. 

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27 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I was just looking at my fuel oil usage (I shop with Shipley, they're pretty good, I like em) for this year versus last year, which I also feel was a warmer winter.

Preface: I keep the thermostat at 63-65 range, which makes the bedrooms 75 or so at night. Last year from 1/3 - 2/13, I used 196 gallons. This year from about that same timeframe, 1/6 - 2/12, I used 110 gallons.

My number for November and December prior are about the same in terms of lesser use this winter.

I am on pace to save a thousand dollars this season versus last, which was also a warm winter.

Cold winters can suck me.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Last December (2022) was 1-2 degrees BN so may be the reason for the difference.   No month has been anywhere near BN this year.   Feb is currently about 1.4 higher than last Feb. 

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18 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Ukie not yet ready to play ball for Saturday but seems like it may be close.....ish.  Hard to tell from my limited view of the maps.

It did ok with today's event, but that could have been luck as it's rarely the best model on any particular storm. The king has been dethroned with nothing to replace it, so model anarchy rules.

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