Central PA Winter 23/24

[Voyager]

Took this pic a couple blocks from my humble Sun City abode this morning. The Bradshaw Mountains just north of the Valley got a decent snow overnight. 

[boo radley]

And gfs stays very robust.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

And gfs stays very robust.

Exactly…Warning snow from Harrisburg on to the north.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the 12z NAM precipitation.

It cut back for the LSV on to the east & north.

6z top

12z bottom 

If we don't have rates, I don't believe it will snow.

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

If we don't have rates, I don't believe it will snow.

Agreed, we need something more like the GFS to bring the rates once we flip to have the chance of accumulation.

[canderson]

I stand with my assumption this is an elevation event and anyone in any valley or not on a ridge gets no accumulation   

[Blizzard of 93]

Op run snow alert on the GFS for the PD weekend & just beyond.

Lots of tracking in our future…

[Blizzard of 93]

Canadian also has PD weekend coastal storm chance just further south & weaker at this range.

[Blizzard of 93]

12z GEFS gets Warning snow to most of CTP including 7 to Harrisburg this run.

[paxpatriot]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

12z GEFS gets Warning snow to most of CTP including 7 to Harrisburg this run.

OP hasn’t matched the GEFS in days, color me skeptical.

[Itstrainingtime]

34 minutes ago, canderson said:

I stand with my assumption this is an elevation event and anyone in any valley or not on a ridge gets no accumulation   

I honestly wasn't giving this event any attention whatsoever until Thursday evening. I'm intrigued but not invested. I agree with you but it’s close enough to maintain my curiosity.

[mitchnick]

Ukie looks south, but Pivotal hasn't updated and Meteocentre.com only goes to 72hrs with limited info.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Ukie looks south, but Pivotal hasn't updated and Meteocentre.com only goes to 72hrs with limited info.

It’s pretty juicy on QPF

[boo radley]

Canadian days no snow for anyone lol

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I honestly wasn't giving this event any attention whatsoever until Thursday evening. I'm intrigued but not invested. I agree with you but it’s close enough to maintain my curiosity.

You summed up my position perfectly. I’m not expecting anything noteworthy (perhaps an inch or two if we get lucky) but still keeping a loose eye on the modeling in case things start to break more favorably as we get inside of 48 hours. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie looks south, but Pivotal hasn't updated and Meteocentre.com only goes to 72hrs with limited info.

Snow depth is all I can get for now. It's south.

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/pennsylvania/snow-depth-in/20240213-2100z.html

[paxpatriot]

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

I have found that SV map legend is off by 1 category so 4" is 2" on other sites, 6" is 4", etc. 

[DDweatherman]

@Blizzard of 93do you have a weather bell or weather models acct to post the drunk uncle ukie

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

@Blizzard of 93do you have a weather bell or weather models acct to post the drunk uncle ukie

Unfortunately no, WB just has very limited Ukie maps-no snow maps.

I rely on others for the Ukie.

[GrandmasterB]

I’d pay cold hard cash for the Ukie solution. Could it be right this time…PLEASE

[boo radley]

Lol everything from too warm to smoking cirrus, models stay hilarious.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I’d pay cold hard cash for the Ukie solution. Could it be right this time…PLEASE

These models feel like trying to have a chess game on a ship in the middle of a hurricane. Pieces just keep on moving around all over the place.

[GrandmasterB]

Looks like Euro is pretty far north 

[AccuChris]

12z European was quite warm. Surface temps mid-30s and upper levels marginal south of I-80. 

[DDweatherman]

Yep, that’s it for the LSV folks near the M/D. Maybe PD storm will do something here. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Yep, that’s it for the LSV folks near the M/D. Maybe PD storm will do something here. 

It’s not over yet just because of 1 Euro Op run….

If this look holds until 12z Monday, then it’s over.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Yep, that’s it for the LSV folks near the M/D. Maybe PD storm will do something here. 

As blizz would say, see you at 18z. Lol

[Blizzard of 93]

Small differences the the LSV couldn’t afford this run took away much of our snow.

The initial low almost gets to the PA border this run & then the coastal hugs the coast near Atlantic City, NJ this run instead off developing off of OCMD last run.

[MAG5035]

Euro has bumped it’s swath north the last couple runs, matching more of a GFS type swath. The difference being the Sus Valley when comparing GFS v Euro accums.. and GFS is def not my go to if I have to use a global to determine snowfall in the Sus Valley. Euro is probably a better representation of what’s going to happen snow wise with its solution at 12z. 

12z vs 0z runs

Stronger primary that pushes just a bit further north and keeps things aloft just a bit warmer. I’ve said or at least implied we don’t want to get this to being a longer period of rain to snow changeover event in the southern tier. It’s not the path to success for the Sus Valley with this (or even over here for that matter). Just commenting on the solutions at face value here. There’s not much of a consensus to be had for this cycle op wise. Cold NAM with forum wide snow, GFS/EURO with heaviest swath I-80 and north, UKMET with a southern slider that snows I-80 and south, Canadian with NOTHING, and der IKON so far north that plowable snow is NY border counties and north.