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December 2023


brooklynwx99
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3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave what do u think it will take to get another 13-14 type winter regarding temps? 

Good question. NYC hasn’t been able to drop below 36° for an average winter temperature since the super El Niño in 15-16. So I am not sure what it would take to get a winter closer to 32° like 13-14 and 14-15.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Departure
2022-2023 41.0 +4.8…2nd warmest 
2021-2022 37.1 +1.0…20th warmest 
2020-2021 36.1 +0.4…28th warmest 
2019-2020 39.2 +4.0 ….7th warmest 
2018-2019 36.3 +1.2…26th warmest 
2017-2018 36.2 +1.1….27th warmest 
2016-2017 39.3 +4.2…6th warmest 
2015-2016 41.0 +5.9….2nd warmest 
2014-2015 31.4 -3.7…22nd coldest
2013-2014 32.9 -2.2…34th coldest
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This situation is not very far from producing a snowstorm somewhere in the NYC Metro Region. My feeling is that the GFS is holding onto the primary at least a bit too long with the blocking. All it takes is for this to re-develop a few hundred miles southeast of the primary and we're in business. 

WX/PT

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

 

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5 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

This situation is not very far from producing a snowstorm somewhere in the NYC Metro Region. My feeling is that the GFS is holding onto the primary at least a bit too long with the blocking. All it takes is for this to re-develop a few hundred miles southeast of the primary and we're in business. 

WX/PT

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

 

Cmc and Euro has something similar.  I mentioned about this yesterday to watch out for this timeframe.

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21 hours ago, forkyfork said:

why should they cool when co2 is only increasing? 

I just don't buy into the theory that the ocean temps have hit a tipping point and will never return. This all occurred after the 15/16 Nino per Bluewave, which is far too short of a time period for something this dramatic and static to occur.

Also, if the Pacific is still seeing temperature swings from la Nina to El nino, as well as the North Atlantic changing temps why can't the IO? Is there something special about that ocean? I heard someone say that JB mentioned under ocean volcanos, although that activity would not last forever.

If this were CO2, wouldn't all ocean temps warming accelerate at the same pace as the IO? Wouldn't la Nina's lose strength?

I get it we are warming due to natural causes and human activities, however what proof do we have that something as dramatic as an extremely rapid increase in IO temps? Also what evidence do we have that only the IO will stay like this and not change?

 

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23 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Correct, by the 9th we should be heading towards phase 7. Anything before the 2nd week of December is a bonus. The MJO cooler phases may line up nicely with climo. No guarantees, however I would rather propagate through the warm phases now than in mid December.


The latest EPS weeklies don’t  move the forcing past MJO 7 in December as the warm pool is too strong near the Dateline. So it never achieves the classic MJO 8 look with the VP anomalies shifting well east in December. The last time Nino 4 was this warm in 15-16 it took until January for the MJO to shift over to 8-1-2. But while it was colder than when in the MJO 4-7 phases, it never got colder than average due to the overpowering jet stream off the Pacific. But we did see an eventual snowfall improvement due to blocking later in the season. The one caveat now is that the WPAC warm pool is stronger this year. So we may still get further competition from the warmer MJO phases. The RMM charts have been too fast in recent years to move the MJO out of the warmer phases. While the VPanomaly charts have been more reliable. But even they have been to fast to move the MJO to 8-1-2.
 

907D7633-43C7-40B5-943E-022CEE60C3E8.thumb.png.2b6e21e731b7321c150bac139d83a8f5.png
2BD607FC-23B7-466D-9C51-4AF816CD944A.png.f97a9d68fd359215c98633fdcd50bff7.png

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The latest EPS weeklies don’t  move the forcing past MJO 7 in December as the warm pool is too strong near the Dateline. So it never achieves the classic MJO 8 look with the VP anomalies shifting well east in December. The last time Nino 4 was this warm in 15-16 it took until January for the MJO to shift over to 8-1-2. But while it was colder than when in the MJO 4-7 phases, it never got colder than average due to the overpowering jet stream off the Pacific. But we did see an eventual snowfall improvement due to blocking later in the season. The one caveat now is that the WPAC warm pool is stronger this year. So we may still get further competition from the warmer MJO phases. The RMM charts have been too fast in recent years to move the MJO out of the warmer phases. While the VPanomaly charts have been more reliable. But even they have been to fast to move the MJO to 8-1-2.
 

907D7633-43C7-40B5-943E-022CEE60C3E8.thumb.png.2b6e21e731b7321c150bac139d83a8f5.png
2BD607FC-23B7-466D-9C51-4AF816CD944A.png.f97a9d68fd359215c98633fdcd50bff7.png

Is this the reason why we prefer a central based el nino than an east based one? I think that is what made 97/98 such a warm and snowless El nino.

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Is this the reason why we prefer a central based el nino than an east based one? I think that is what made 97/98 such a warm and snowless El nino.

Centrally or west based El Niños are colder when they are weaker than we have now like 02-03, 09-10, and 14-15. Those are the true Modokis. This event currently has some of the warmest Nino 4s on record behind 2016. In any event, we have plenty of time. Since nearly all El Niños are judged on Jan 15th to February 28th. So anything before then is a bonus and we usually don’t expect much. The hope is that we get a true Nino response later in the winter and not get interference from the MJO 4-6 regions. A cleaner El Niño response could allow us to surpass the snowfall totals of last year if we get good blocking later in the winter.

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Centrally or west based El Niños are colder when they are weaker than we have now like 02-03, 09-10, and 14-15. Those are the true Modokis. This event currently has some of the warmest Nino 4s on record behind 2016. In any event, we have plenty of time. Since nearly all El Niños are judged on Jan 15th to February 28th. So anything before then is a bonus and we usually don’t expect much. The hope is that we get a true Nino response later in the winter and not get interference from the MJO 4-6 regions. A cleaner El Niño response could allow us to surpass the snowfall totals of last year if we get good blocking later in the winter.

One would certainly hope surpassing last year is a lock. I mean statistically it nearly is. But anything is possible in a climate changing so fast. 

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There are no indications that this winter will be a shutout.

 

I fully agree. This in no way mirrors 97/98 so far. That really was the worst winter of all time, forgetting about the 5” that fell in one shot in March and melted in ten minutes. I like what I see for at least getting back to near normal. If we get a Jan 16 type event, then obviously we could go well above. 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

One would certainly hope surpassing last year is a lock. I mean statistically it nearly is. But anything is possible in a climate changing so fast. 

Yeah, every single digit snowfall season in NYC was followed by a double digit one of at least 12.7”. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Next Season  Total Snowfall
1 2023-04-30 2.3 ?
2 1973-04-30 2.8 23.5
3 2002-04-30 3.5 49.3
4 1919-04-30 3.8 47.6
5 2020-04-30 4.8 38.6
6 1901-04-30 5.1 25.4
7 1932-04-30 5.3 27.0
8 1998-04-30 5.5 12.7
9 2012-04-30 7.4 26.1
10 1989-04-30 8.1 13.4
- 1878-04-30 8.1 35.8
11 1951-04-30 9.3 19.7

 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I fully agree. This in no way mirrors 97/98 so far. That really was the worst winter of all time, forgetting about the 5” that fell in one shot in March and melted in ten minutes. I like what I see for at least getting back to near normal. If we get a Jan 16 type event, then obviously we could go well above. 

That El Nino was alot stronger than this one.

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18 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Funny thing is 18Z Op GFS shows that crazy AK/W Canada ridge again that is too far west for us usually at D16.

 

It's gonna take several steps for this to improve enough where you'd trust a pattern to have any meaningful cold with it.  That's the issue with these setups and its the issue with any coastal next week.  You don't have much of a source to work with.

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16 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

This situation is not very far from producing a snowstorm somewhere in the NYC Metro Region. My feeling is that the GFS is holding onto the primary at least a bit too long with the blocking. All it takes is for this to re-develop a few hundred miles southeast of the primary and we're in business. 

WX/PT

 

this is honestly not a bad look

No description available.

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36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs went towards this also

6566687ae4918.png

The fast PAC Jet that keeps lowering heights along the West Coast is the main issue. Tends to suppress systems moving to our south and allow lows to our west to cut or hug the coast more. So some version of recent years issue of cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression working against true BM tracks. Plus models have been underestimating the PAC Jet in the 6-10 day range most of the time since 18-19. 

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The fast Pacific Jet that keeps lowering heights along the West Coast is the main issue. Tends to suppress systems moving to our south and allow lows to our west to cut or hug the coast more. So some version of recent years issue of cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression working against true BM tracks.

This was a big step towards the euro and amplification. Maybe something to track.

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