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Central PA Autumn 2023


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Moderate rain and .27" in the hopper.  Ends a 9-10 dry stretch.  62 degrees.   In what I hope is not a sign of a demon from last year, MDT is already AN on the high for the day posting a 70 midnight high. 

 

@mitchnick your call gains some traction with the 0Z Global Op's showing more of a southern presence to the system late next week.  Would turn what could be an 80 degree day here to one where the mid upper 70's are just down the road from us and we are right on the line...close call.  All 3 show something similar but the Euro depict was one that really showed the "line".   May be a surprise 70 on Tue though? 

image.thumb.png.dd3933717666f5ff1d53c3f0a9381f4b.png

 

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Moderate rain and .27" in the hopper.  Ends a 9-10 dry stretch.  62 degrees.   In what I hope is not a sign of a demon from last year, MDT is already AN on the high for the day posting a 70 midnight high. 

 

@mitchnick your call gains some traction with the 0Z Global Op's showing more of a southern presence to the system late next week.  Would turn what could be an 80 degree day here to one where the mid upper 70's are just down the road from us and we are right on the line...close call.  All 3 show something similar but the Euro depict was one that really showed the "line".   May be a surprise 70 on Tue though? 

image.thumb.png.dd3933717666f5ff1d53c3f0a9381f4b.png

 

I went purely on the ensemble means with my thoughts and didn't look at any of the members. With the ensembles just averaging things out, some members could have shown that scenario and others the warmer one with an average in the upper 60's. I  will say that all 3 ensembles seem bent on averaging on the cooler side down the road, typical for strong Niño Octobers. In fact, the 6z operational GFS has a serious cold shot at the end of the run fwiw. So I  guess I  would roll the dice at this point and go with 60's max.

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39 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I went purely on the ensemble means with my thoughts and didn't look at any of the members. With the ensembles just averaging things out, some members could have shown that scenario and others the warmer one with an average in the upper 60's. I  will say that all 3 ensembles seem bent on averaging on the cooler side down the road, typical for strong Niño Octobers. In fact, the 6z operational GFS has a serious cold shot at the end of the run fwiw. So I  guess I  would roll the dice at this point and go with 60's max.

Yea, I recall you saying that.  I was not just reading op's myself as opposed to forecasting we have a low moving to our west.  If it transfers early or minors out to a SE low, my predict will be gone. But, I am still going with 2-3 days out of the next 7 being 70 or over at Hanover and MDT.  I do hope that even if we get another warm shot next week, we are easing into full-time fall sooner rather than later.  

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We have picked up 0.17" of rain so far here in East Nantmeal with the first line of showers. The 2nd line of additional rain with the main cold front should pass through from west to east and be through the county during the noon hour. Temps will fall the rest of the day with temps down into the 50's by 1pm and the 40's by 9pm this evening. Clearing skies later today. Chillier than normal weather should continue for most of the next week with our next chances of rain toward Thursday evening. Go Phillies!
Records for today: High 90 (1941) / Low 27 (1923) / Rain 1.48" (1965)
image.png.6a98c76e6785f81fb86f1278611469b5.png
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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

.3" total qpf. Another underperformer. Hopefully, the overperformers start showing up in December. 

We ended up around .38.  Highest totals seem to be near and east of the susky in South LSV.  Still under 20" for the year here at 19.85ish.   On track for the driest year ever using HGR numbers.  Got up to 66 which is a surprise. 

image.thumb.png.0db5e5c193f86c1af3e91fb3827319f6.png

 

 

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52 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We ended up around .38.  Highest totals seem to be near and east of the susky in South LSV.  Still under 20" for the year here at 19.85ish.   On track for the driest year ever using HGR numbers.  Got up to 66 which is a surprise. 

image.thumb.png.0db5e5c193f86c1af3e91fb3827319f6.png

 

 

61.9 is current and our max. You've had more sun, which may explain it.

I  wouldn't mind seeing this Euro day 10 map show up on a regular basis this winter. 

500h_anom.conus (19).png

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