2023 Fall Mid-Long Term Discussion.

[*Flash*]

Just for fun. First time seeing a rainbow with hail falling simultaneously. Got maybe a tenth of an inch during the event but a little goes a long way in October...

Location: Regions Bank in Dickson, Tenn. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

11 hours ago, John1122 said:

The rain here was pretty decent, around .70. This hasn't been like a typical dry spell in fall, because usually those tend to feature a lot of sun and a lot of AN temps. The short periods of rain we've gotten were allowed to soak in because of extended cloudy stretches, and coolish temperatures. I do know I've been luckier with rain than those south of I-40.

About same total here. .73" 

[Daniel Boone]

Wxrisk Winter Forecast is out. 

https://wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/_pda/2023/10/winter-2023-24.pdf

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like a classic, El Nino false start to winter (tad early) just after Halloween.  Those are very common IMHO during El Nino Falls.  It looks like the timing of the cold front is now slightly after Halloween.  I don't know if that is good or bad...the later timing opens up chances for rain as flow will be southerly.  But hopefully, trick-or-treaters get a good window.  

Overall, November warmth appears likely after that cold shot.  By the second week of November I think we see aforementioned warm-up which will last through a good portion of December.  Back loaded winters are a pain in the neck...but that is what is likely in play.  

I still am keeping an eye on the cold during early November(late October if timing reverts) for mischief in the foothills.  The recent trend is for a more shallow and broad trough which is not a great set-up for mountain and early-season snow.   It is not uncommon to see El Nino Falls where snow levels can drop to 2,000'. 

And one final note...shoulder season modeling is often just abysmal.  So, be prepared for the weather to sometimes do exactly the opposite(of what is depicted) in the 2-4 week timeframes.  While I "think" the second half of November will be warm....never know.  Modeling is often as fickle as a phantom fair catch call which gets you placed on the three yard line instead of the 25.

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like a classic, El Nino false start to winter (tad early) just after Halloween.  Those are very common IMHO during El Nino Falls.  It looks like the timing of the cold front is now slightly after Halloween.  I don't know if that is good or bad...the later timing opens up chances for rain as flow will be southerly.  But hopefully, trick-or-treaters get a good window.  

Overall, November warmth appears likely after that cold shot.  By the second week of November I think we see aforementioned warm-up which will last through a good portion of December.  Back loaded winters are a pain in the neck...but that is what is likely in play.  

I still am keeping an eye on the cold during early November(late October if timing reverts) for mischief in the foothills.  The recent trend is for a more shallow and broad trough which is not a great set-up for mountain and early-season snow.   It is not uncommon to see El Nino Falls where snow levels can drop to 2,000'. 

And one final note...shoulder season modeling is often just abysmal.  So, be prepared for the weather to sometimes do exactly the opposite(of what is depicted) in the 2-4 week timeframes.  While I "think" the second half of November will be warm....never know.  Modeling is often as fickle as a phantom fair catch call which gets you placed on the three yard line instead of the 25.

Probably will be back loaded winter if we see winter weather here. They typically are with niños. Of course I'm optimistic that we see a cold winter throughout, but chances aren't good. A few tweaks and shifts can alter things as you know

[MattPetrulli]

Lol

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said:

Lol

I think we start doing better once those stupid Atlantic Hurricanes stop. Part of the westward shift in the front and trough coming down is in response to the Hurricane helping to block the SE progression. 

[Matthew70]

Rain would be appreciated though it being dry has made blowing leaves easy so far.  My new grass is up & doing great with using my own water.  Water bill going to be high unfortunately.

As for winter. The longer it takes to get cold means the lesser time winter has to stay around. Kinda like the days getting shorter. A couple more months & then the days start getting longer again. Give me about 6 weeks of snow & cold & I will call it a winter. Though unfortunately we don’t even get that anymore.  If we get 1-2 weeks it’s a miracle. 
 

The fall colors sure are beautiful! 

[Carvers Gap]

An interesting trend overnight on the American and Canadian ensembles...the cold is not confined to just one cold shot in early November.   The GEFS is honking the most, but the Canadian is right there with it.  The EPS sees it somewhat as well...but very washed out at this range.  Rare to see d10-15 looking that chilly on an ensemble.  I do think the GEFS is a little more accurate during shoulder season.  If the cold persists longer than just the 3-4 day cold shot during early November....it will bear some similarities to the year I was insistent that November would be warm...and it was crazy cold.  LR modeling had a very warm depiction and then busted hugely.  John had a great analog set, and scored the cold month. @John1122 do you remember what year that was?  Was it an El Nino year?

[Itryatgolf70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

An interesting trend overnight on the American and Canadian ensembles...the cold is not confined to just one cold shot in early November.   The GEFS is honking the most, but the Canadian is right there with it.  The EPS sees it somewhat as well...but very washed out at this range.  Rare to see d10-15 looking that chilly on an ensemble.  I do think the GEFS is a little more accurate during shoulder season.  If the cold persists longer than just the 3-4 day cold shot during early November....it will bear some similarities to the year I was insistent that November would be warm...and it was crazy cold.  LR modeling had a very warm depiction and then busted hugely.  John had a great analog set, and scored the cold month. @John1122 do you remember what year that was?  Was it an El Nino year?

Carver, the key for us to have a chance at a cold winter imo is less -PDO and more troughing north of Hawaii. If we don't get those, we probably be warmer than we would like to be this winter. East based niños aren't good for cold either. At least I'm wanting to see more central based is better

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS has a second, stronger amplification after the early November one.  That "could" (remember shoulder season modeling is super fickle) mean that we are looking at something more than a 3-4 day cold shot.  The second amplification would drive the cold air far enough south that we would be tracking snow showers and flurries in the valleys.

[John1122]

I just read a story that the PV was going to get very stretched out and send cold into North America through early November. It's been modeled to elongate quite a bit by November 3rd or so from the images in the story. It was from a site that normally deals with European weather patterns. 

[Daniel Boone]

I'm still not at ease regarding a decent Winter. This looks to be one of the latest first freezes on Record. Leaf droppage in much of the area is a week to 10 days behind schedule. Many, not all, years that leaves hung late went in to be either back loaded or mild Winter's. '94-95 was one such Winter. El nino as well. Very mild and stormy... Severe in January. 

     Let's hope that's not where we're headed. Hopefully, blocking will be dominant and the MJO cooperates for us. Siberian snow cover is much below average per Judah Cohen. It's not really lived up to what he suggests the last several years. So, maybe blocking won't be a problem. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

I'm still not at ease regarding a decent Winter. This looks to be one of the latest first freezes on Record. Leaf droppage in much of the area is a week to 10 days behind schedule. Many, not all, years that leaves hung late went in to be either back loaded or mild Winter's. '94-95 was one such Winter. El nino as well. Very mild and stormy... Severe in January. 

     Let's hope that's not where we're headed. Hopefully, blocking will be dominant and the MJO cooperates for us. Siberian snow cover is much below average per Judah Cohen. It's not really lived up to what he suggests the last several years. So, maybe blocking won't be a problem. 

Some of those 90s Ninos - we were mowing in January here.  Whew, my leaf changing is on or ahead of schedule.   Leaves are pouring off the trees - making my yard look like crap!  LOL.  I wonder if your area has slowed due to you all developing drought earlier?  I do think a back-loaded winter w/ a false, early start is likely.  Seems like cold patterns tend to follow where it rains during fall - that is a Bastardi rule, but seems accurate.  We had our first frost a couple of days ago.  No freeze yet, but that looks on the way around Nov1.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I really think the tropics are messing with the pattern progression over N. America this fall. Once again we have a hurricane in the Atlantic locking a ridge over us as a trough tries to move in. Didn't someone in the main El Nino thread for the whole forum post that this has been one of the busiest tropical Atlantic seasons on record for an El Nino? 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is a proper start to winter....or end to Fall...whichever you all prefer.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'll toss this over here from Banter at the request of Carver. I do think there is another tropical system incoming, I just hope it trends to dump some rain on us! 

That qualifies as a Preserved for Posterity run of the GFS. 

[Daniel Boone]

On 10/25/2023 at 8:20 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Some of those 90s Ninos - we were mowing in January here.  Whew, my leaf changing is on or ahead of schedule.   Leaves are pouring off the trees - making my yard look like crap!  LOL.  I wonder if your area has slowed due to you all developing drought earlier?  I do think a back-loaded winter w/ a false, early start is likely.  Seems like cold patterns tend to follow where it rains during fall - that is a Bastardi rule, but seems accurate.  We had our first frost a couple of days ago.  No freeze yet, but that looks on the way around Nov1.

The peak is past here now. It was this past weekend. Typical peak here in Lee County is around the 12-15th. We've had several patchy frosts with a couple lower open valleys getting a light freeze a couple times. Lee County Airport being one.( 5 miles wsw of Jonesville, 1411 ft).

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS agains toying with some mischief.  I do wonder if the warm November signal is actually false.  Again, this occurred a few years ago.   

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS has been signaling that November (at least the first half anyway) could just be one cold shot after another w/ warm interludes(albeit brief).  The 12z run exemplifies this idea.  Is it right?  We will see.  

[Itryatgolf70]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z GFS agains toying with some mischief.  I do wonder if the warm November signal is actually false.  Again, this occurred a few years ago.   

Wow Carver, you get the gfs quicker than I do lol. It don't start running until 10:30am my time

[Carvers Gap]

35 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Wow Carver, you get the gfs quicker than I do lol. It don't start running until 10:30am my time

I could say that I have special access, OR I could say that I accidentally thought I was looking at 12z(but it was actually 6z).  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS (the right one this time!) has snow shower activity w/ the second cold shot - seems reasonable.  The 12z CMC gets the gold star for trying to create mischief.  The CFSv2 at lunch really wants to make December cold.  I have December warm as part of my seasonal forecast ideas...but the CFS is giving me pause of late(seasonal run and weeklies run).  I think a warm December still pans out, especially if November is cold.   09-10 beat the odds and went cold to start winter.....would be nice to see a repeat.  Interestingly, the analogs for the dry Sept/Oct all started cold for winter.   I have the analog reanalysis maps in the winter spec thread for those interested.  Always, big weather changes ahead in about four days.  Summer is likely done with maybe a slight gasp between cold shot one and two.

[Itryatgolf70]

55 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS (the right one this time!) has snow shower activity w/ the second cold shot - seems reasonable.  The 12z CMC gets the gold star for trying to create mischief.  The CFSv2 at lunch really wants to make December cold.  I have December warm as part of my seasonal forecast ideas...but the CFS is giving me pause of late(seasonal run and weeklies run).  I think a warm December still pans out, especially if November is cold.   09-10 beat the odds and went cold to start winter.....would be nice to see a repeat.  Interestingly, the analogs for the dry Sept/Oct all started cold for winter.   I have the analog reanalysis maps in the winter spec thread for those interested.  Always, big weather changes ahead in about four days.  Summer is likely done with maybe a slight gasp between cold shot one and two.

I believe the pdo and Aleutian ridge will be the main factor in what type winter east of the rockies has imo. We are in a el niño and usually an Aleutian low is prevalent and not an Aleutian ridge so that makes me think we either have a mix of both or we are still in la niña and the atmosphere hasn't responded to the niño yet. Sometimes in December an Aleutian ridge can go poleward and we get cold

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I believe the pdo and Aleutian ridge will be the main factor in what type winter east of the rockies has imo. We are in a el niño and usually an Aleutian low is prevalent and not an Aleutian ridge so that makes me think we either have a mix of both or we are still in la niña and the atmosphere hasn't responded to the niño yet. Sometimes in December an Aleutian ridge can go poleward and we get cold

Yes, the PDO I have beaten like a dead horse this fall and past summer.  LOL. 

The MJO will have a say I am nearly certain.

The Aleutians are tricky.  The La Nina Aleutian 500mb high generally portends to a warm EC....but not always. Some years, there is a stalwart Aleutian 500mb low which is present.  But yes, an Aleutian low is a good thing.   A lot of the aformentioned Pac features are also highly dependent on how the Atlantic plays out, and how Pac features teleconnect to HL blocking over the Atlantic and Greenland.

 

@John1122, is a big fan of EPO/PNA ridging.  @nrgjefflooks at HP maybe in eastern Siberia during winter....Jeff, feel free to clarify.   For me, I just don't like a GOA surface low which never leaves.  What I like to see is a 500mb low east of Hawaii at mid latitudes which often creates split flow.  Also, Jax's recurving cyclone east of Japan is a winner as well.  @jaxjagman, you can clarify that.  John also mentioned the strat being disrupted early....that can lead to good things at our latitude if it doesn't go to Asia.  Generally, if the strat is getting hammered...big time cold will show up on the map(often in the wrong place) and then dump west(if it gets to NA at all).  Generally strat chances are this: if in doubt, it goes to asia; next choice is NA; next choice is Mountain West: last choice is eastern NA.

[Carvers Gap]

Heads up: New PDO information placed in winter spec thread...

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS is Happy Hour every run right now.  LOL. 

[Met1985]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The GFS is Happy Hour every run right now.  LOL. 

Just posted about that in our thread. Interesting.  This next week is going to be a shock to the system. 

[Carvers Gap]

@Holston_River_Rambler, the 12z GFS is maybe GIF worthy?

[Met1985]

58 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Holston_River_Rambler, the 12z GFS is maybe GIF worthy?

All kinds of moving parts and fronts coming in and out. It's actually a huge positive seeing an active pattern this early in the year as to last year.