cleetussnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, allgame830 said: Ok so I am halfway into between those points from west to east just like @cleetussnowso 4-5”?? I dunno if we are going to get much of anything. The snowmaps tend to be generous on the borderlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Bust potential is huge on this storm both ways. Just IMBY 12z suite has me anywhere between 3 and 18, lol. Nothing like a tight consensus 12 hours before game time. 17z hrrr has me getting 13 inches by 11z. I'm still thinking 8-10 total. I'm in the same boat here. Just think of contractors and landscaping business owners. They don't know if they have to call in guys or not. What do you do? If you have to be prepared, but you don't want to just waste money for nothing? We are 3 hours from the Warning start time in some areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 NWS just threw up winter weather advisory for eastern Passaic and western Bergen counties. Up to 5-7 inches in elevations over 500 ft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 39 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That's the 10-1 map. That verbatim would be light white rain that if it sticks at all would be on some grass for a half hour. It also falls in the afternoon in mid March with temps probably around 35. It might stick a little on the north shore, south shore no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 I think the north shore is one place that has an oppertunity to bust high. Looks like they might get a nice band of snow as the low pulls out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 Latest SREF mean basically cut totals in half from this morning for the Hudson Valley. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, mannynyc said: I think the north shore is one place that has an oppertunity to bust high. Looks like they might get a nice band of snow as the low pulls out I’ll believe any of it when I see it. The models cranking a CCB over CT also clip this area, but the Euro would essentially be nothing-don’t be fooled by 10-1 maps in this situation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 The 18z HRRR is slightly improved for the NW burbs. Primarily because of a slightly faster changeover tonight and a bit more coverage on the light snows tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 That 18Z HRRR was hilarious for ERN MASS...that would be quite a blown forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 35 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I’ll believe any of it when I see it. The models cranking a CCB over CT also clip this area, but the Euro would essentially be nothing-don’t be fooled by 10-1 maps in this situation. Depends if it’s 33 or 35. If 33 could be a few inches on grass, if 35 white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z HRRR is slightly improved for the NW burbs. Primarily because of a slightly faster changeover tonight and a bit more coverage on the light snows tomorrow afternoon. I would not be surprised if southern Rockland and most of Westchester get no accumulation at all. It depends on temps and rates tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I would not be surprised if southern Rockland and most of Westchester get no accumulation at all. It depends on temps and rates tomorrow morning. The dewpoints are fairly good on the models tomorrow late AM into the afternoon...if somehow some way there is a steady light snow I think those areas will easily fall to 30-32 tomorrow afternoon...the DPs and air mass in place to the north with the last event did not have that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That 18Z HRRR was hilarious for ERN MASS...that would be quite a blown forecast You're not kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You're not kidding. Looks better for HV and worse for eastern SNE. What a weird storm and models kind of all over the place for borderline regions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Looks better for HV and worse for eastern SNE. What a weird storm and models kind of all over the place for borderline regions. Agreed I’ve never seen such craziness with the models in any prior storm this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 That NAM run would not be bad even down this way if we were like 5 degrees colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: That NAM run would not be bad even down this way if we were like 5 degrees colder 5 degrees is a big difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 NAM still teasing, has 2-3 inches in the Bronx and parts of LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The winter storm warning for western passaic, orange, and putnam was just updated 10 minutes ago. They actually upped the min totals...calling for 6-12 where the original was 4-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, sn0w said: The winter storm warning for western passaic, orange, and putnam was just updated 10 minutes ago. They actually upped the min totals...calling for 6-12 where the original was 4-12. The recent runs look a smidge better for the borderline areas of the HV. Of course if the RGEM is right it’s a non event in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 What probably is going to happen is when this thing finally organizes tonight the 06 and 12Z runs will all finally agree and be similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: What probably is going to happen is when this thing finally organizes tonight the 06 and 12Z runs will all finally agree and be similar I think two questions remain. How far south does the rain/snow like make it with the first moisture slug and is anything that falls tomorrow on the backend steady. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 18z 12K Nam gives me 20, 3k 12, and HRRR 16. Waiting for the RGEM to give me 3 or 4 to balance it out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 Not bad. Problem is outside of the higher elevations it's 35 degrees and falling during the daylight hours in mid March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not bad. Problem is outside of the higher elevations it's 35 degrees and falling during the daylight hours in mid March. And it’s the NAM. Verbatim it’s 33 for most places away from immediate coast so actually not that bad but again NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not bad. Problem is outside of the higher elevations it's 35 degrees and falling during the daylight hours in mid March. This would be a great look in January and February but find it hard to believe it is going to stick in the middle of the day. Need really good rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Latest SREF mean basically cut totals in half from this morning for the Hudson Valley. Whats half of 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, mannynyc said: This would be a great look in January and February but find it hard to believe it is going to stick in the middle of the day. Need really good rates. 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: Whats half of 0 What I just noticed @cleetussnowNWS dropped our low to 34 tonight with a high of 33 and tomorrow night down to 29. So if rates are good enough it can accumulate up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 At this point after this grotesque late 90s style LI winter I’ll take 35 and mood flakes to end the winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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