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March 2023 Obs


NorthHillsWx
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I feel like many have been underestimating the levels of MLCAPE values, low level shear, and helocity in the environment south of that stationary front. It's going to be a disturbing evening across those areas with the moderate & enhanced/hatched risk.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

   Tornado Watch Number 88

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   355 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023

 

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

 

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 

     Far Eastern Louisiana

     Southern and Central Mississippi

 

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until

     1100 PM CDT.

 

   * Primary threats include...

     Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely

     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events

       to 3 inches in diameter possible

     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

 

   SUMMARY...Supercell storms are expected to develop across and move

   into southern and parts of central Mississippi this evening. Large

   hail and damaging winds will be the main threats initially, but the

   tornado potential should increase toward and after sunset, when

   low-level shear will considerably increase. This includes the

   potential for long-lived supercells and strong tornadoes (EF2+).

 

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles

   north and south of a line from 10 miles west southwest of Natchez MS

   to 35 miles south southeast of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction

   of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS

   WOU8).

 

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for

   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch

   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for

   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements

   and possible warnings.

 

   &&

 

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 86...WW 87...

 

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail

   surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind

   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean

   storm motion vector 26030.

 

   ...Guyer

Nocturnal tornadoes as tornadic risk increasing prevalent after dark... this is not good at all.

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Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

Mod (60%)

Wind

 

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (20%)

Hail

 

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (60%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (50%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

 

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (90%)

 

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26 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Huge hail for a couple minutes in ATL just now. Biggest stone I found is 2.1”. 
 

721AFD15-2456-4C2C-83DC-94658D97DBE0.jpeg

Impressive return(looks to be approaching 60dbz) north of downtown.  I'm guessing this came from somewhere in that fun, little, bunch of mucho-moisture?

Here in Macon,  70deg, and awaiting the midnight round of watches and warnings.

EDIT:  posted this and then I see a white spot in that return (60+dBZ). I'm guessing that's some roofer contractor's dream radar return.

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64deg and sho' nuff foggy here in Macon.

And, we had 5.4" of rain in about a 8 hour period ending yesterday at about 11:00. Possibly more upstream from us. Lake Tobesofkee flooded it's banks for the first time in my 18 years on it.  Boathouse is a mess, of course, but the really interesting thing is sheer amount of debris in the water this morning. I went out at daybreak and I swear you could just about walk across the whole thing. 

Logs and sticks and lumber, Oh, My !

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