paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 12z GFS rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Snow spreading across the LSV mid-morning Friday on the 12Z GFS. Low position is slightly west of Pittsburgh. Like the RGEM, Lanco is a question. Low actually moves slightly north of Pittsburgh as it progresses into PA with Heavy snow for parts of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 A little slower snowing at 1pm over the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 Rain/Snow mix by 7pm. * 540 line in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Looks a hair south of 6Z. Southern counties are riding the line. Snowy from central on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 South Jersey snowstorm Sat Afternoon. The white rain kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 Back to snow 1am and at 7am Saturday finishing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 3-4" top end. Maybe more like 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, paweather said: 3-4" top end. Maybe more like 2-3" Southern LSV gets almost nothing...just to keep things clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Southern LSV gets almost nothing...just to keep things clear. Yep for sure...Storm 2 getting ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Snow breaking out in SW VA and West Virgina Sunday afternoon. Low positioned in Central TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Sunday night there is not enough prescence of a low to have it show up on the panel. Snowing in Western PA. Moderate snow over most of PA Sunday night, reflection of low in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Snow breaking out in SW VA and West Virgina Sunday afternoon. Low positioned in Central TN. Lots of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 the Low is in GA. Geezus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Lots of moisture. It just never really develops though we do get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It just never really develops though we do get some snow. Nope yeah well another way to disappoint us. So much potential and it fades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, paweather said: the Low is in GA. Geezus. Here is why it cant climb. Been sayin this for days. Trough axis. and yes....I'll gladly take my couple inches n like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 18 minutes ago, paweather said: Nope yeah well another way to disappoint us. So much potential and it fades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I think we are very near a consensus for the Friday threat, with minimal changes from here on out. I see a Miller-B type system that's just a little too disorganized and gains a little too much latitude, while being a bit slow on the transfer and then moving east fairly quickly once it does. All in all, just a snow/rain showery kind of day with some moderate to heavy periods embedded. Accumulations will be tough to come by, with surface temps well above freezing making for inefficient accumulation and no issues on roadways. Perhaps a couple slushy inches on non-paved surfaces would be my take for most of the LSV, with likely less for areas south of Harrisburg. I think you'll have to go up to about a State College to Sunbury type line and beyond before seeing some respectable amounts. Jury still out on the subsequent threats. The real intrigue may reside in the Monday to Thursday period when we're stuck under the ULL, with daily chances for snow showers and perhaps some decent squalls. These setups always surprise. I expect a few select locations to make out pretty well during this period, with temps much more conducive to holding whatever falls. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Onward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Nooners, sunny and a cold feeling 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I think we are very near a consensus for the Friday threat, with minimal changes from here on out. I see a Miller-B type system that's just a little too disorganized and gains a little too much latitude, while being a bit slow on the transfer and then moving east fairly quickly once it does. All in all, just a snow/rain showery kind of day with some moderate to heavy periods embedded. Accumulations will be tough to come by, with surface temps well above freezing making for inefficient accumulation and no issues on roadways. Perhaps a couple slushy inches on non-paved surfaces would be my take for most of the LSV, with likely less for areas south of Harrisburg. I think you'll have to go up to about a State College to Sunbury type line and beyond before seeing some respectable amounts. Jury still out on the subsequent threats. The real intrigue may reside in the Monday to Thursday period when we're stuck under the ULL, with daily chances for snow showers and perhaps some decent squalls. These setups always surprise. I expect a few select locations to make out pretty well during this period, with temps much more conducive to holding whatever falls. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Onward. Sounds reasonable. Friday has been too far W and N for us LSV'rs (although it continues to eek SE) but like you suggest, its a marginal event for many here cept true ctp'rs and points N/W/NE Monday, while I know everyone has seen some of the outputs on the models, really is ok as currently modeled. Trough axis really doesn't let it gain much latitude (even though it likely will as we near game time), and it really cant bomb out till offshore and beyond our "window of chance" with it. NAO is doing its thingy and keeping it suppressed, so we just get some nice mood snows and hopefully a nice snow day...no matter how much is otg/imby. Beyond that....gotta root on the Ens guidance as GFS op shows more of what we've become accustomed to, cutters then cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 My lunch hour tour of weather models…. I will sign now for 12z GFS for Friday pm. Advisory snow for southern tier & Warning snow from Harrisburg on to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 The 12z Canadian looks great for Monday am. Snow map is just the Monday storm period. Warning snow again from Harrisburg to the west & north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I simply don’t buy the GFS for Friday. Temps are incredibly marginal. I might see snowflakes but expect no accumz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, canderson said: I simply don’t buy the GFS for Friday. Temps are incredibly marginal. I might see snowflakes but expect no accumz. Do we get your buy in if we throw in some smokin hot 50mph winds? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, canderson said: I simply don’t buy the GFS for Friday. Temps are incredibly marginal. I might see snowflakes but expect no accumz. It’s all about the rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Anduril said: Do we get your buy in if we throw in some smokin hot 50mph winds? Ya sure. We had those the last two days (well not 50 but constant 38 mph winds) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s all about the rates. True. I just don’t trust Miller Bs. I can’t recall the last time we didn’t bust from one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Here is the combined total snow for both events on the 12z GFS & 12z Canadian by Tuesday am. Best short to medium term snow map combination of the season for Harrisburg on 2 models at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, canderson said: Ya sure. We had those the last two days (well not 50 but constant 38 mph winds) yea it sure was howling (growling?) last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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