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The Ides of March end of Winter 2023


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I think we are very near a consensus for the Friday threat, with minimal changes from here on out.  I see a Miller-B type system that's just a little too disorganized and gains a little too much latitude, while being a bit slow on the transfer and then moving east fairly quickly once it does.  All in all, just a snow/rain showery kind of day with some moderate to heavy periods embedded.  Accumulations will be tough to come by, with surface temps well above freezing making for inefficient accumulation and no issues on roadways.  Perhaps a couple slushy inches on non-paved surfaces would be my take for most of the LSV, with likely less for areas south of Harrisburg.  I think you'll have to go up to about a State College to Sunbury type line and beyond before seeing some respectable amounts.  Jury still out on the subsequent threats. 

The real intrigue may reside in the Monday to Thursday period when we're stuck under the ULL, with daily chances for snow showers and perhaps some decent squalls.  These setups always surprise.  I expect a few select locations to make out pretty well during this period, with temps much more conducive to holding whatever falls.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it.  Onward.

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8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I think we are very near a consensus for the Friday threat, with minimal changes from here on out.  I see a Miller-B type system that's just a little too disorganized and gains a little too much latitude, while being a bit slow on the transfer and then moving east fairly quickly once it does.  All in all, just a snow/rain showery kind of day with some moderate to heavy periods embedded.  Accumulations will be tough to come by, with surface temps well above freezing making for inefficient accumulation and no issues on roadways.  Perhaps a couple slushy inches on non-paved surfaces would be my take for most of the LSV, with likely less for areas south of Harrisburg.  I think you'll have to go up to about a State College to Sunbury type line and beyond before seeing some respectable amounts.  Jury still out on the subsequent threats. 

The real intrigue may reside in the Monday to Thursday period when we're stuck under the ULL, with daily chances for snow showers and perhaps some decent squalls.  These setups always surprise.  I expect a few select locations to make out pretty well during this period, with temps much more conducive to holding whatever falls.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it.  Onward.

Sounds reasonable.  Friday has been too far W and N for us LSV'rs (although it continues to eek SE) but like you suggest, its a marginal event for many here cept true ctp'rs and points N/W/NE

Monday, while I know everyone has seen some of the outputs on the models, really is ok as currently modeled.  Trough axis really doesn't let it gain much latitude (even though it likely will as we near game time), and it really cant bomb out till offshore and beyond our "window of chance" with it.  NAO is doing its thingy and keeping it suppressed, so we just get some nice mood snows and hopefully a nice snow day...no matter how much is otg/imby.  

Beyond that....gotta root on the Ens guidance as GFS op shows more of what we've become accustomed to, cutters then cold.

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