El Nino 2023-2024

[snowman19]

The only thing the spring Central Pacific Wind index suggests is that a super El Niño has never followed such strong trades near the Dateline .A Strong +1.5 could still be possible if the WWBs come on strong enough in June. Be we may only be able reach +0.5 +1.4 and run the risk of another non coupling event if the trades stay up. We have essentially been in 7 year La Niña since 16-17.
 

Yea, based on what you’ve been showing, I’m becoming more convinced that this Nino event stays east-based and never goes basin-wide or Modoki. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Region 4 stays neutral throughout this event given what’s been going on and projected to continue. This would be the 1st true Eastern Pacific/EP El Niño in forever

[bluewave]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Yea, based on what you’ve been showing, I’m becoming more convinced that this Nino event stays east-based and never goes basin-wide or Modoki. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Region 4 stays neutral throughout this event given what’s been going on and projected to continue. This would be the 1st true Eastern Pacific/EP El Niño in forever

But it can’t remain east based if the trade winds stay up. Lets say we don’t get any big WWBs in June. Then Nino 1+2 would continue cooling. So we wouldn’t be able to have an east based event. Remember, there have been no big EPAC WWBs since March. So it could turn out to be an early +1.2 peak like in 2017.

[griteater]

Yeah the early East Pac activity (warming) is pretty much moot without more downwelling kelvin waves and warming coming from the west 

[so_whats_happening]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, many of the dynamical models are showing a warm bias relative to how strong the trades have been in the Central Pacific. There has never been a super +2.0 or greater event without the WWBs pushing east of the dateline during spring. The strongest El Niño since 1980 with higher spring trades was 09-10 which made it to +1.6 after a trade wind relaxation in June. If the WWBs can’t pick up in June, then the historic ceiling has been a weak to moderate event that may or may not couple due to RONI. We couldn’t couple in 18-19 and 19-20. The result was a Niña style background pattern. So the tropical wind pattern in June could determine where this event ends up.

 

 

Yea feel like i have been mentioning it for awhile something just felt off this year. Again who knows maybe we do see a dramatic reversal take place but as of now moderate seems likely. Had for the longest time felt weak nino but it does have a chance still of some moderate even potential strong readings if things can get going. Otherwise yea lack of wwb really hurting the chances.

Id be curious with the westward propagating wwb and trades if we manage another warming potential in the 1+2 region again come mid to late june. Still early to know for surr yet.

With this slight weakening of trades in the next week most things should maintain status quo but given lack of anything in the pipeline right now should continue to weaken temps as we head through june.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yea feel like i have been mentioning it for awhile something just felt off this year. Again who knows maybe we do see a dramatic reversal take place but as of now moderate seems likely. Had for the longest time felt weak nino but it does have a chance still of some moderate even potential strong readings if things can get going. Otherwise yea lack of wwb really hurting the chances.

Id be curious with the westward propagating wwb and trades if we manage another warming potential in the 1+2 region again come mid to late june. Still early to know for surr yet.

With this slight weakening of trades in the next week most things should maintain status quo but given lack of anything in the pipeline right now should continue to weaken temps as we head through june.

I can remember using the charts below in tracking the 15-16 super El Niño. The dark reds and whites from 120 E to 150 E were consistently 150 E to 160 W in the spring. We would need the darker reds and whites to shift closer to or just east of the Dateline for the Nino 3.4 to warm from 0.4 to +1.0. We did get some weaker WWBs east of the Dateline last few days. But nothing sustained. So it looks like we hold steady around +0.4 to +0.5 as long as this wind pattern continues. Nino 1+2 started dipping back below +2 recently which was off recent highs since there were no follow up big WWBs there. 

 

[so_whats_happening]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can remember using the charts below in tracking the 15-16 super El Niño. The dark reds and whites from 120 E to 150 E were consistently 150 E to 160 W in the spring. We would need the darker reds and whites to shift closer to or just east of the Dateline for the Nino 3.4 to warm from 0.4 to +1.0. We did get some weaker WWBs east of the Dateline last few days. But nothing sustained. So it looks like we hold steady around +0.4 to +0.5 as long as this wind pattern continues. Nino 1+2 started dipping back below +2 recently which was off recent highs since there were no follow up big WWBs there. 

 

Wow at that u anom map i was waiting to see it update but did not expect to see a wide region of enhanced trades.

You can tell this last episode did try to buckle the pattern though. Forecasts past 7 days have been rather rough so lets see where we go from here. Im more curious where the tropical activity will pick up this year. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Wow at that u anom map i was waiting to see it update but did not expect to see a wide region of enhanced trades.

You can tell this last episode did try to buckle the pattern though. Forecasts past 7 days have been rather rough so lets see where we go from here. Im more curious where the tropical activity will pick up this year. 

Yeah, I mainly use those wind charts for the first 7 days. Models beyond 7 days aren’t that accurate. It’s probably why ENSO forecasts made in the spring can be so unreliable. They continue the momentum forward of what ever the initialized SSTs are. The winds this spring were the opposite of what occurred in the past in developing super events. They looked  more like past events in the +0.7 to +1.6 range. That range would be my best guess right now. But the lower half of that may not be able to couple due to RONI.

Recent developing +0.7 to +1.6 spring trade winds composite similar to 2023
 

Nothing like developing super El Niño events

 

 

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

Is that the GFS forecast you usually share here? 

Looking at the dateline between now and June 6th or so, that's quite a change from previous forecasts. Previously, it was mostly blue, but now it's mostly neutral. Could be a sign of the models catching up to the transition?

I don't pay attention to anything beyond 7 days so the stronger trades on June 6th and onward in this run may or may not actually pan out. But we're still not out of the spring predictability barrier, so.

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Is that the GFS forecast you usually share here? 

Looking at the dateline between now and June 6th or so, that's quite a change from previous forecasts. Previously, it was mostly blue, but now it's mostly neutral. Could be a sign of the models catching up to the transition?

I don't pay attention to anything beyond 7 days so the stronger trades on June 6th and onward in this run may or may not actually pan out. But we're still not out of the spring predictability barrier, so.

Yeah, the GFS is similar to the Euro in keeping the strongest WWBs back near the Philippines which won’t cause much ENSO change in the near term. No strong trades near the Dateline but no strong WWBs either. Also notice how the core of the strongest winds is displaced north of the 5N -5S equatorial zone. 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

 The -SOI streak finally ended today. It ended up at a rather impressive 19 days long. But how does this compare to the longest -SOI streaks of other oncoming El Niño years through June 15th starting with 1994 (first year the daily data is available) along with the respective Nino strengths?

-1994: 34 and 29 days (moderate)

-1997: 35 and 27 days (super)

-2002: 29 days (moderate)

-2004: 25 days (weak)

-2006: 14 days (weak)

-2009: 13 days (strong)

-2014: 25 days (weak)

-2018: 22 days (weak)

 
 So, although rather impressive, the 19 days of 2023 is actually much shorter than the moderate 1994, the super 1997, and the moderate 2002. Also, it is a bit shorter than even the weak 2004, 2014, and 2018. But it is a bit longer than the strong 2009 and the weak 2006.

 So, overall six years had longer streaks and only two years had shorter ones. Based on this the 19 day longest streak of the year through June 15th isn't by itself screaming out that a super strong El Niño or even just a strong or, for that matter, even just a moderate is likely on the way.

 Looking at the entire year, the weak 2006's longest was only 16 days (twice). But the strong 2009 did have a 28 day streak from early October til early November. So, all four moderate+ had a 28+ day long -SOI streak by November. So, if 2023 is going to end up moderate+, I'd expect to see a much longer than 19 day streak to come no later than autumn and probably by summer.

 But OTOH only 1997-8 and 2009-10 had a lower -SOI than the -65 of 5/24/2023. So, that tells me that the chance for strong is probably higher than what the mere 19 day longest streak of the year to date suggests.

 So, lots of uncertainty remains as far as how strong will be the eventual peak this fall/winter.

 

 

[snowman19]

 The -SOI streak finally ended today. It ended up at a rather impressive 19 days long. But how does this compare to the longest -SOI streaks of other oncoming El Niño years through June 15th starting with 1994 (first year the daily data is available) along with the respective Nino strengths?
-1994: 34 and 29 days (moderate)
-1997: 35 and 27 days (super)
-2002: 29 days (moderate)
-2004: 25 days (weak)
-2006: 14 days (weak)
-2009: 13 days (strong)
-2014: 25 days (weak)
-2018: 22 days (weak)
 
 So, although rather impressive, the 19 days of 2023 is actually much shorter than the moderate 1994, the super 1997, and the moderate 2002. Also, it is a bit shorter than even the weak 2004, 2014, and 2018. But it is a bit longer than the strong 2009 and the weak 2006.
 So, overall six years had longer streaks and only two years had shorter ones. Based on this the 19 day longest streak of the year through June 15th isn't by itself screaming out that a super strong El Niño or even just a strong or, for that matter, even just a moderate is likely on the way.
 Looking at the entire year, the weak 2006's longest was only 16 days (twice). But the strong 2009 did have a 28 day streak from early October til early November. So, all four moderate+ had a 28+ day long -SOI streak by November. So, if 2023 is going to end up moderate+, I'd expect to see a much longer than 19 day streak to come no later than autumn and probably by summer.
 But OTOH only 1997-8 and 2009-10 had a lower -SOI than the -65 of 5/24/2023. So, that tells me that the chance for strong is probably higher than what the mere 19 day longest streak of the year to date suggests.
 So, lots of uncertainty remains as far as how strong will be the eventual peak this fall/winter.
 
 

I still think strong is definitely a very distinct possibility

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I still think strong is definitely a very distinct possibility

 I also still do. But based on a combo of my own observations/statistical analyses and what @bluewaveand others have said about the current state of the W/C Pacific, I've reduced the chance for strong+ somewhat in favor of a higher chance for moderate vs how I earlier thought.
 
 Earlier, I had strong as the best chance, followed by high end moderate (say, +1.3 to +1.4) followed by low end super. My sweet spot was ~+1.7. Now, I feel that moderate's chances are getting closer to strong's chances with a lower end moderate (+1.0 to +1.2) chance increasing vs how I earlier thought. Also, whereas I earlier had a small chance for low end super, I now feel its chances are barely hanging by a thread. Thus my continually adjusted sweet spot has dropped from ~+1.7 to ~+1.5.  

 By the way, I'm licking my chops more and more as far as next winter's potential is concerned, especially here in the SE for the less unreliable temperatures vs the always hard to predict wintry precip since that is often mainly just a one major shot deal even in "good winters", but that's way on down the line and an issue for another time.

 If the W/C Pacific doesn't start to change soon, a high end weak is going to start to come into the picture as a nontrivial possibility in my mind.

[GaWx]

 In order for the upcoming Nino to end up as just weak, the ONI would need to peak at +0.9 at most. The May BoM is forecasting a +2.5+ peak. So, a weak peak would require a +1.6+ miss for the May BoM. Nothing even close to that much of a miss for the May BoM has occurred since way back in 2011. Then, in May it predicted +1.1 for ASO and ASO verified way down at -0.9 for a whopping +2.0 miss. But that was during a period (2008-12) when BoM missed for five years in a row significantly too warm. Since then, it has averaged no bias. 
 So for now, I'm keeping weak's chances as very low.

[snowman19]

 In order for the upcoming Nino to end up as just weak, the ONI would need to peak at +0.9 at most. The May BoM is forecasting a +2.5+ peak. So, a weak peak would require a +1.6+ miss for the May BoM. Nothing even close to that much of a miss for the May BoM has occurred since way back in 2011. Then, in May it predicted +1.1 for ASO and ASO verified way down at -0.9 for a whopping +2.0 miss. But that was during a period (2008-12) when BoM missed for five years in a row significantly too warm. Since then, it has averaged no bias. 
 So for now, I'm keeping weak's chances as very low.

Agreed. The upgrades since 2011 have been great. I very, very seriously doubt the POAMA is that far off right now, run after run and even getting stronger with the peak. Could it be off slightly? Sure, anything is possible. But that far off? As in it’s not even going to at least get strong? Not in my opinion. Different story if it were the Euro or CFS

[George001]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Agreed. The upgrades since 2011 have been great. I very, very seriously doubt the POAMA is that far off right now, run after run and even getting stronger with the peak. Could it be off slightly? Sure, anything is possible. But that far off? As in it’s not even going to at least get strong? Not in my opinion. Different story if it were the Euro or CFS

Paul Roundy thinks a super nino is coming. He’s not always right but the Nino is indeed building from east to west like he said, it’s already +.4 and not even June yet so there is plenty of time for the nino to drastically increase in strength. What is your current thoughts on the expected peak? I’m thinking a range of around +1.4 to +1.8. 

[etudiant]

48 minutes ago, George001 said:

Paul Roundy thinks a super nino is coming. He’s not always right but the Nino is indeed building from east to west like he said, it’s already +.4 and not even June yet so there is plenty of time for the nino to drastically increase in strength. What is your current thoughts on the expected peak? I’m thinking a range of around +1.4 to +1.8. 

Is +1.4-1.8 really a Super El Nino?

Or is there an accepted measure for the overall excess heat content of the tropical Pacific ocean? We do seem to be migrating towards a warm belt across the tropical Pacific, so less pressure differentials. Are there any accessible models for this?

[griteater]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Paul Roundy thinks a super nino is coming. He’s not always right but the Nino is indeed building from east to west like he said, it’s already +.4 and not even June yet so there is plenty of time for the nino to drastically increase in strength. What is your current thoughts on the expected peak? I’m thinking a range of around +1.4 to +1.8. 

When / Where did Paul state that?

[snowman19]

When / Where did Paul state that?

He stated that a few times on twitter

[griteater]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He stated that a few times on twitter

I was just wondering if he stated that in recent weeks cause it’s going to be a steep climb to get to something like that now 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, etudiant said:

Is +1.4-1.8 really a Super El Nino?

Or is there an accepted measure for the overall excess heat content of the tropical Pacific ocean? We do seem to be migrating towards a warm belt across the tropical Pacific, so less pressure differentials. Are there any accessible models for this?

1. Per ONI (traditional measure), +1.4 to +1.8 is not super. It is upper end moderate through most of strong.

2. RONI (relative ONI) adjusts for the excess heat through all of the tropical oceans, including the very warm MDR. Currently, RONI is ~0.4 less than ONI. Thus, ONI of +1.4 to +1.8 is equivalent to RONI of +1.0 to +1.4, which is moderate El Niño. On a RONI basis, I'm currently favoring moderate with my "sweet spot" near +1.1.

[George001]

1 hour ago, etudiant said:

Is +1.4-1.8 really a Super El Nino?

Or is there an accepted measure for the overall excess heat content of the tropical Pacific ocean? We do seem to be migrating towards a warm belt across the tropical Pacific, so less pressure differentials. Are there any accessible models for this?

No, high end moderate to strong. I don’t think it will quite get up to super, but a 1.4-1.8 ONI El Niño is no joke.

[GaWx]

13 hours ago, George001 said:

Paul Roundy thinks a super nino is coming. He’s not always right but the Nino is indeed building from east to west like he said, it’s already +.4 and not even June yet so there is plenty of time for the nino to drastically increase in strength. What is your current thoughts on the expected peak? I’m thinking a range of around +1.4 to +1.8. 

When did Roundy last actually state that he thinks a super Nino is coming? I'd like to see a link. I don't see it on Twitter going back through all of May, but maybe I missed it. TIA

[GaWx]

 I'm reposting this that I did in here on March 31st:

 These El Niño winters that quickly followed La Nina were significantly colder in the SE US than the prior winter: 

1876-7 (cold), 1880-1 (cold), 1904-5 (very cold), 1911-2 (cold), 1925-6 (normal), 1939-40 (very cold), 1957-8 (cold), 1965-6 (cold), 1972-3 (normal), 1976-7 (very cold), 2009-10 (very cold)

These weren't:

 - 1887-8 was slightly warmer than 1886-7 and near normal

 - 1918-9 was much warmer than 1917-8 and was near normal. It followed the very cold 1917-8, which was one of the coldest La Niña winters on record

- 2006-7 was warmer than 2005-6 and warmer than normal

- 2018-9 was warmer than 2017-8 and warmer than normal

---------

Tally:

- 11 of 15 were significantly colder than the prior winter

- 9 of 15 were cold to very cold 

- 4 of 15 were near normal 

- 2 of 15 were warmer than normal, two of the three most recent cases

 

 Conclusion: As one living in the SE who prefers a cold winter, I'd take my chances with El Niño this winter on a normal or colder winter based on the above history despite two of the three most recent cases being warmer than normal, which would keep from betting heavily on it. I certainly would prefer it over other ENSO! Keep in mind that four of these 15 were historically cold.

 Although this analysis is centered on the SE US, much of this can be used for other areas as well. That includes seeing which were the 15 El Niño winters since the late 1800s that quickly followed La Niña and analyzing those 15 winters for one's own region.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

When did Roundy last actually state that he thinks a super Nino is coming? I'd like to see a link. I don't see it on Twitter going back through all of May, but maybe I missed it. TIA

 Looking back in this ENSO thread allowed me to finally find the Roundy Tweet that started generating the posts here referring to him predicting a super Nino:

 This, indeed, is quite a bullish Tweet, but it was done nearly two months ago (on April 8th) and he hasn't Tweeted anything explicitly bullish about the potential Nino strength since then. All I've seen since are some bullish WWB related Tweets.

 The strongest JAS Nino 3.4 SSTa on record back to 1950 is +1.9 C. So, this post is implying that "perhaps" we'll have a +2.0+ in JAS, meaning "perhaps" a super Nino already by JAS. Just saying this is admittedly quite bullish. However, he only said "perhaps" rather than outright predicting that and he also said: 

"But it still has a month or two for the forcing to break down before it gets there."

 And again, that was way back on April 8th.

 So considering all of this, is it accurate to say that he currently thinks that a super Nino is coming? Opinions?

 I posted this on April 17th in response to it being posted:

 "Doesn't he mean strongest 3.4 on record for the late summer, itself? I see almost no chance for strongest on record 3.4 by late summer. That would be well into the +2 range: +2.6 per 2015-6 and +2.9 per 1877-8. The strongest on record in JAS, alone, is +1.9. The model consensus is no warmer than the high +1 area by JAS and that's ignoring what I think is a warm bias."

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

No comparison to 2015 or 1997 at this point with much cooler surface and subsurface SSTs this year.

 

 

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

No comparison to 2015 or 1997 at this point with much cooler surface and subsurface SSTs this year.

 

 

Yeah, I still don’t understand the talk about heading into a super event this year. This one’s likely going high-end moderate, tops.