El Nino 2023-2024

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I wouldn't bet on fluke heavy snow in the SE. There is heavy trend against it. Even when the upper latitude pattern is favorable for them the last two Winters, it's not even really close. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

There is now a -3c pocket in the central-subsurface on TAO/Triton maps. NOAA said 55% chance La Nina develops by the Summer a little while ago, based on the subsurface. It may be a little higher now. 

[GaWx]

The DJ MEI came in at only +0.7 vs the +1.1 peak of ND.

[so_whats_happening]

41 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The DJ MEI came in at only +0.7 vs the +1.1 peak of ND.

Wow I was certainly expecting it to hold steady but that is much weaker.

[raindancewx]

On 2/10/2024 at 10:00 AM, raindancewx said:

Nice little snowstorm here in Albuquerque today.... The GFS literally never had a single run with snow here, at any point, over the past 7 days. I'm sure you'll all have some surprises downstream with this system when the better sampling comes in east of the Rockies. The 3 km NAM and HRRR did have some nice banding, with localized amounts of 3-6 near/in the city.

I tried to warn you guys in the East about this system. Literally six hours before we had 0.33" liquid fall as snow here, the GFS had something like sprinkles up to 0.03".  

For now, the GFS has 10 days of +WPO conditions before a reversal. That should translate to about March 1-10 being extremely stormy in the West using the Bering Sea Rule. There was a brief break in low north of the SE Asia subtropical high earlier in February, so I am expecting a brief warm up period locally late month.

I've been pleased with the MJO this month in light of my forecast. I expected it to get stuck in 6-7 on the RMM plots based on the precipitation patterns the Canadian Model was showing month after month. You can see that idea has at least some validity for the current period. I had also posted a bunch of snow maps a while ago showing -PDO El Nino seasons. Each of those has a "FUCK YOU" zone for snow that I can't explain centered over the MA/NY border, and that seems likely to continue again this season.

[raindancewx]

Hard to imagine next winter being worse for most of you given the temperatures this winter. My current guess would be another early peaking La Nina. Probably another Modoki La Nina. Don't shoot the messenger, but the Modoki La Ninas kind of suck for the East too.

I'm actually starting to wonder if the semi-persistence of on the ground weather despite different traffic patterns in the Pacific/Arctic is nature's way of bailing the West out of a multi-decade drought. 

I would say, overall, this event behaved with some of the tendencies I expected - the subtropical jet was quite strong, but the Gulf of Alaska / Arctic stuff was a bit unusual with the very -PDO / and very +AMO combo.

If we get some insane hurricane season this Summer-Fall, I'll go +5 or more for the SW, with EPO/WPO driven above average snow/brief severe cold for the East, like a 2013-14 / 2017-18 blend. Otherwise, a Modoki La Nina favors the NW / Northern Plains for a cold winter. Intuitively that makes sense, as MN and that region has to burn off their +20 non-sense to end up relatively near long-term averages by year end.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

Hard to imagine next winter being worse for most of you given the temperatures this winter. My current guess would be another early peaking La Nina. Probably another Modoki La Nina. Don't shoot the messenger, but the Modoki La Ninas kind of suck for the East too.

I'm actually starting to wonder if the semi-persistence of on the ground weather despite different traffic patterns in the Pacific/Arctic is nature's way of bailing the West out of a multi-decade drought. 

I would say, overall, this event behaved with some of the tendencies I expected - the subtropical jet was quite strong, but the Gulf of Alaska / Arctic stuff was a bit unusual with the very -PDO / and very +AMO combo.

If we get some insane hurricane season this Summer-Fall, I'll go +5 or more for the SW, with EPO/WPO driven above average snow/brief severe cold for the East, like a 2013-14 / 2017-18 blend. Otherwise, a Modoki La Nina favors the NW / Northern Plains for a cold winter. Intuitively that makes sense, as MN and that region has to burn off their +20 non-sense to end up relatively near long-term averages by year end.

A strong El Nino is a guaranteed mild winter in Michigan, so I can't say that this winter has shocked me, although it's a bit more extreme than I would have expected, especially up North. January was pretty good, the rest of winter terrible. 

 

I'll take my chances with la nina any day over el nino. And actually a modoki nina appears to be front loaded with good Decembers here. Would be a nice change of pace. Only a few duds. 1973–1974, 1975–1976, 1983–1984, 1988–1989, 1998–1999, 2000–2001, 2008–2009, 2010–2011, and 2016–2017. 

[raindancewx]

Over the years, I've developed some pretty powerful statistical regressions using data mining / math for local precipitation. For El Nino, a multi-polynomial regression of September average high, November precipitation, and wet Summer days is highly predictive of Dec-Feb precipitation. The output for the three variables this year was 1.78" for Dec-Feb, with the current total at 1.75", and at least more rain or snow event likely in the Feb 20-24 window based on the Bering Sea Rule. The 90% confidence interval is like +/-0.8", so behaviorally, precipitation did what it was "supposed to" in this El Nino using that method.

That's the formula for anyone curious (b3 is Sept abq high, c3 is inches precip Nov, d3 is days in July-Sept with >=0.1" rain, with June days counted at half also.)

(B3*-0.04239*B3)-(0.30999*B3*C3)-(0.018527*B3*D3)+(0.01853*C3*C3)-(0.2244*C3*D3)+(0.00347*D3*D3)+(7.277*B3)+(28.465*C3)+(1.6066*D3)-(311.76)

For March in El Nino, I use annualized July-June annualized sunspots, days with >=0.1" rain in August, and absolute value difference in Sept v. Aug rain. That formula has verified at 92% accurate for +/-0.46" for March. This year it has 0.66", +/-0.46" for ABQ, which is pretty heavily in favor of a wet month locally as I've been saying. This is the formula for March - B/C/D are the three variables I listed respectively. March only averages 0.5" here. When I last ran this formula in the 2019-20 El Nino it had 0.23" forecast for March and we got 0.31". Generally, when this formula verifies with a high precipitation total, it's pretty tornadic for the Plains as only powerful cold systems can bring significant cold rain/snow totals here in the Spring.

=(-4.1966*10^-5*B3*B3)+(7.3725*B3*C3*10^-4)-(1.841*B3*D3*10^-3)+(5.3806*10^-4*C3*C3)-(2.254*C3*D3*10^-2)+(0.60322*D3*D3)+(5.1584*B3*10^-3)-(2.377*C3*10^-2)-(0.2767*D3)+(0.2954)

I've also found over the years that December highs in the Plains, when blended with sunspots and Aug/Oct rainfall activity is pretty predictive for March locally as well. 

=((0.0794*B4^2)+(3.8169*10^-3*B4*B5)-(2.7622*10^-4*B4*B6)-(4.522*10^-5*B5^2)+(1.443*10^-4*B5*B6)+(6.434*10^-3*B6^2)-(0.5946*B4)-(1.6259*10^-3*B5)-(0.3421*B6)+(5.22))))

That formula has 1.32" for March, +/-0.65".  I use Bismarck, ND for the Dec Plains high. 

The cool thing is, in 2018-19 and 2019-20, there was also an overlap zone between the two formulas for March, and we finished in it. Basically, my best guess is we'll finish around an inch, about double average for March given 0.66" +/-0.46", and 1.32" +/-0.65" are showing as outcomes in the two relatively independent approaches. The March 1983, 1987, 1992, 1995, 1998, 2020 blend I showed the other day that resembles Dec-Feb US temps also came in at ~0.69". 

I mention all this because March precip here is most correlated to +PNA conditions, then +WPO conditions. The PNA is shown to drop off shortly, but I'm expecting at least one major bounce back in March. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Hard to imagine next winter being worse for most of you given the temperatures this winter. My current guess would be another early peaking La Nina. Probably another Modoki La Nina. Don't shoot the messenger, but the Modoki La Ninas kind of suck for the East too.

I'm actually starting to wonder if the semi-persistence of on the ground weather despite different traffic patterns in the Pacific/Arctic is nature's way of bailing the West out of a multi-decade drought. 

I would say, overall, this event behaved with some of the tendencies I expected - the subtropical jet was quite strong, but the Gulf of Alaska / Arctic stuff was a bit unusual with the very -PDO / and very +AMO combo.

If we get some insane hurricane season this Summer-Fall, I'll go +5 or more for the SW, with EPO/WPO driven above average snow/brief severe cold for the East, like a 2013-14 / 2017-18 blend. Otherwise, a Modoki La Nina favors the NW / Northern Plains for a cold winter. Intuitively that makes sense, as MN and that region has to burn off their +20 non-sense to end up relatively near long-term averages by year end.

You said east based la nina like a month ago.... I can't imagine this hurricane season not being well above average, but who knows.....

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Hard to imagine next winter being worse for most of you given the temperatures this winter. My current guess would be another early peaking La Nina. Probably another Modoki La Nina. Don't shoot the messenger, but the Modoki La Ninas kind of suck for the East too.

I'm actually starting to wonder if the semi-persistence of on the ground weather despite different traffic patterns in the Pacific/Arctic is nature's way of bailing the West out of a multi-decade drought. 

I would say, overall, this event behaved with some of the tendencies I expected - the subtropical jet was quite strong, but the Gulf of Alaska / Arctic stuff was a bit unusual with the very -PDO / and very +AMO combo.

If we get some insane hurricane season this Summer-Fall, I'll go +5 or more for the SW, with EPO/WPO driven above average snow/brief severe cold for the East, like a 2013-14 / 2017-18 blend. Otherwise, a Modoki La Nina favors the NW / Northern Plains for a cold winter. Intuitively that makes sense, as MN and that region has to burn off their +20 non-sense to end up relatively near long-term averages by year end.

Some of the Rocky Mountain states as well as CA and WA are amazing to me as regards the stark contrast between nearby districts! Is this due to varying elevations? Examples:

-S CA coast 88 vs desert's 17

-The neighboring districts in WA that are 17 and 69

-The neighboring districts in NM that are 19 and 80

[chubbs]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Hard to imagine next winter being worse for most of you given the temperatures this winter. My current guess would be another early peaking La Nina. Probably another Modoki La Nina. Don't shoot the messenger, but the Modoki La Ninas kind of suck for the East too.

I'm actually starting to wonder if the semi-persistence of on the ground weather despite different traffic patterns in the Pacific/Arctic is nature's way of bailing the West out of a multi-decade drought. 

I would say, overall, this event behaved with some of the tendencies I expected - the subtropical jet was quite strong, but the Gulf of Alaska / Arctic stuff was a bit unusual with the very -PDO / and very +AMO combo.

If we get some insane hurricane season this Summer-Fall, I'll go +5 or more for the SW, with EPO/WPO driven above average snow/brief severe cold for the East, like a 2013-14 / 2017-18 blend. Otherwise, a Modoki La Nina favors the NW / Northern Plains for a cold winter. Intuitively that makes sense, as MN and that region has to burn off their +20 non-sense to end up relatively near long-term averages by year end.

You tilt the odds in your favor by going warm.

[raindancewx]

I've been a bit surprised this winter is going to be classified as a borderline Super El Nino. It really doesn't look anything like 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 or even 1972-73 on the SST maps.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I've been a bit surprised this winter is going to be classified as a borderline Super El Nino. It really doesn't look anything like 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 or even 1972-73 on the SST maps.

Especially because of the uptick in global SSTs in general, I always thought 0.2-3 should be subtracted to make it more even with everything. 

The precipitable water though.. It's #1 of all the years/Strong Nino's since 1948, beating #2 (15-16) by a good 20%.  In pre-satellite data, some people use precipitable water to assess ENSO event strengths. 

[raindancewx]

I suspect the water vapor from the volcano is what drove a lot of the precipitable water though. I've also seen some papers recently saying that the hole in the ozone layer by Australia was likely damaged by the eruption based on observations that were taken immediately after. Anything that impacts heat/energy transfer unexpectedly is a big deal really.

https://research.noaa.gov/2023/12/20/hunga-tonga-2022-eruption/

“Our measurements showed that stratospheric ozone concentrations decreased rapidly – by as much as 30% in air with the highest water vapor concentrations – in the immediate wake of the eruption,” said Stephanie Evan, a scientist from the Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones in France and lead author of the other recent study, published in the journal Science. Evan and colleagues continued to measure ozone concentrations depleted by around 5% across the Indian and Pacific oceans two weeks following the eruption.

[wncsnow]

Want to give @Stormchaserchuck1a shoutout. He was skeptical all winter of the bullish winter forecasts for the Mid Atlantic and SE and has been pretty much spot on no matter how much hate he has gotten. 

[raindancewx]

CFS is trying to go to the 500 mb look I've been expecting for six months. It's maybe technically 2.5/3 on the features I want to see. It is trying for a +WPO, -/=NAO, with low heights across the southern US in between.

It's sort of a diet, off-brand version of March 1973 at the moment. I suspect the area I put the L in will become more blue with time and push the yellow H closer to the south of Alaska. The heights by Japan have been there all winter, so not expecting that to change, in that sense it should remain a duller version of 1973.

[mitchnick]

5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

CFS is trying to go to the 500 mb look I've been expecting for six months. It's maybe technically 2.5/3 on the features I want to see. It is trying for a +WPO, -/=NAO, with low heights across the southern US in between.

It's sort of a diet, off-brand version of March 1973 at the moment. I suspect the area I put the L in will become more blue with time and push the yellow H closer to the south of Alaska. The heights by Japan have been there all winter, so not expecting that to change, in that sense it should remain a duller version of 1973.

Ha. If you're a snow weenie in the MA and were around to experience 3/73, there's no month any duller than that one. Lol

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

19 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I suspect the water vapor from the volcano is what drove a lot of the precipitable water though. I've also seen some papers recently saying that the hole in the ozone layer by Australia was likely damaged by the eruption based on observations that were taken immediately after. Anything that impacts heat/energy transfer unexpectedly is a big deal really.

https://research.noaa.gov/2023/12/20/hunga-tonga-2022-eruption/

“Our measurements showed that stratospheric ozone concentrations decreased rapidly – by as much as 30% in air with the highest water vapor concentrations – in the immediate wake of the eruption,” said Stephanie Evan, a scientist from the Laboratoire de l’Atmosphère et des Cyclones in France and lead author of the other recent study, published in the journal Science. Evan and colleagues continued to measure ozone concentrations depleted by around 5% across the Indian and Pacific oceans two weeks following the eruption.

1/200 year return frequency on a VEI 6 or higher eruption, the world might get lucky.  About 75 years for a VEI 5/Mt. Ste. Helens event, assuming we could get a standard SO2 blast.  I suspect some unpleasant weather/climate affects, but it'd knock down record SSTs for a few years, if I had to guess.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Thanks. It's amazing how much we matched PDO this year:

All you had to do was roll forward that SST configuration in the Summer/Fall. 

You can see how El Nino correlated too, with the NPH (North Pacific High) off the West Coast, US, rolling up into Siberia. 

Combination of Strong East-based El Nino and Strong -PDO (Fall) did very well in the Pacific 500mb this Winter. 

[mitchnick]

Anybody still watching the 10mb for SSW? Today EPS show it happening in a few days, recovering briefly, then switching direction again for an extended period. That's crazy.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

21 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I suspect the water vapor from the volcano is what drove a lot of the precipitable water though. I've also seen some papers recently saying that the hole in the ozone layer by Australia was likely damaged by the eruption based on observations that were taken immediately after. Anything that impacts heat/energy transfer unexpectedly is a big deal really.

The pink, purple, orange skyline/clouds in the last few years is too dreamy to be from a volcano.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Anybody still watching the 10mb for SSW? Today EPS show it happening in a few days, recovering briefly, then switching direction again for an extended period. That's crazy.

The effects on the 500mb NAO are almost immediate (~10 days) once you get to mid-late March. 

We have a minor warming going on now: https://ibb.co/YBdKxQb  The typical lag time in mid-late February is 15 days. They are minor NAO correlations for minor Stratosphere warmings though. 

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The effects on the 500mb NAO are almost immediate (~10 days) once you get to mid-late March. 

We have a minor warming going on now: https://ibb.co/YBdKxQb  The typical lag time in mid-late February is 15 days. 

Have you ever seen an extended period like the one the Eps is showing for March? Can't say I  really followed this stuff too much before this year so I have little reference or experience. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Have you ever seen an extended period like the one the Eps is showing for March? Can't say I  really followed this stuff too much before this year so I have little reference or experience. 

I plotted them all before, but I lost the research, or I would give you analogs. I'll have to go through and do it again. I do know the EPS was showing a strong reversal from about this range (for January) all through December, and that ended up being only really 3-4 days of strong anomalies hitting +1800-2000. The rest of the days were +1000-1400. Historically, there quite a few events that went >+1800 for many days (10-14+). It seems that the EPS is showing that stronger event happening, but it has been a little flimsy in the long range this year. 

I also think that if there is tendency for the NAO to go negative in March, I think there will be equal tendency for -PNA/+EPO conditions to also occur. 

[mitchnick]

Just looked at operational Gfs and it has the renewed warming starting in the 384hr panel, which would be reasonably consistent with Eps.

EDIT: Geps has it too.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I plotted them all before, but I lost the research. I'll have to go through and do it again. I do know they were showing a strong reversal from about this range (for January) all through December, and that ended up being only really 3-4 days of strong anomalies hitting +1800-2000. The rest of the days were +1000-1400. Historically, there a lot of events that went >+1800 for many days (10-14+).  It seems that the EPS is showing that stronger event happening, but it has been a little flimsy in the long range this year. 

I also think that if there is tendency for the NAO to go negative in March, I think there will be equal tendency for -PNA/+EPO conditions to also occur. 

Couldn't you have just lied to me? Lol

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Thanks. It's amazing how much we matched PDO this year:

All you had to do was roll forward that SST configuration in the Summer/Fall. 

You can see how El Nino correlated too, with the NPH (North Pacific High) off the West Coast, US, rolling up into Siberia. 

Combination of Strong East-based El Nino and Strong -PDO (Fall) did very well in the Pacific 500mb this Winter. 

Chuck, good job with your MidAtlantic/NE forecasts.
 I have this winter as basinwide/cross between EP and CP as 1+2 fell sharply before winter and 3 has been about same as 3.4. In addition, 4 has been quite warm vs its own climo.
 Also, an argument can be made that this was a moderate if one were basing this on either the RONI peak of only +1.49:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

or on the MEI peak of only +1.1:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chuck, I have this winter as basinwide/cross between EP and CP as 1+2 fell sharply before winter and 3 has been about same as 3.4. In addition, 4 has been quite warm vs its own climo.
 Also, an argument can be made that this was a moderate if one were basing this on either the RONI peak of only +1.49:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

or on the MEI peak of only +1.1:

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

 

Yeah, I mean the 500mb pattern matches east-based Nino's vs central or western based. I know we started off east-based, but you're right, technically Nino 4 was pretty warm. 

[mitchnick]

Today’s Eps still has the official wind reversal in a day or two, then after a brief recovery, has the winds reversing again around 3/5 and staying under the 0 m/s line thru the end of the run around 4/3! And I thought yesterday's run was crazy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Today’s Eps still has the official wind reversal in a day or two, then after a brief recovery, has the winds reversing again around 3/5 and staying under the 0 m/s line thru the end of the run around 4/3! And I thought yesterday's run was crazy.

More useless SSW with all of the cold in Eurasia....yay.