El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Technically not an El Nino but extremely close to one....2019-20 sucked after a pretty nice December. But of course, that season didn't remotely act like an El Nino....and it would be surprising if this one didn't given how much stronger it is.

Perfect example of why I have begun taking the RONI and MEI more seriously....I would not have whiffed as badly as I did that year because I treated it as a classic weak el Nino. It was warm-neutral per RONI and MEI.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

MEI for 19-20 never got above 0.4 and was down to 0.2 by Jan

.23 peak RONI.

That season could have worked if it hadn't been in the midst of a monster cool ENSO stretch....which may work to our advantage this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I am mixed on how much I buy into proposed impacts from CC, but one that I am increasingly adopting is the conceptualization that extremely negative NAO seasons are now exceedingly rare as a manifestation of it.... @GaWx Larry has posted numerous stats about how rare it has become (2009-2010 being the last) and it makes sense with the more compressed/faster flow making long duration/extreme blocks more difficult to achieve. Seems easier to pull off on the Pacific side, since its upstream and a larger domain space. Not sure if @bluewave's stuff about NAO blocks being displaced to the south plays into this.....maybe they are now frequently protruding out of the NAO domain space and this registering into the seasonal index less.

[Terpeast]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am mixed on how much I buy into proposed impacts from CC, but one that I am increasingly adopting is the conceptualization that extremely negative NAO seasons are now exceedingly rare as a manifestation of it.... @GaWx Larry has posted numerous stats about how rare it has become (2009-2010 being the last) and it makes sense with the more compressed/faster flow making long duration/extreme blocks more difficult to achieve. Seems easier to pull off on the Pacific side, since its upstream and a larger domain space. Not sure if @bluewave's stuff about NAO blocks being displaced to the south plays into this.....maybe they are now frequently protruding out of the NAO domain space and this registering into the seasonal index less.

Not sure I buy it yet. I think a big part of it is a +NAO/atlantic decadal cycle and the La Nina base state since the 2016 super nino. Yes, the blocks have been south based, but that's happened plenty of times before. 

Maybe after we get a few more strong El Ninos and a couple of +PDO seasons, and we still don't get a deep -NAO despite having an -AO, then yeah I'd start buying into this theory. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Not sure I buy it yet. I think a big part of it is a +NAO/atlantic decadal cycle and the La Nina base state since the 2016 super nino. Yes, the blocks have been south based, but that's happened plenty of times before. 

Maybe after we get a few more strong El Ninos and a couple of +PDO seasons, and we still don't get a deep -NAO despite having an -AO, then yeah I'd start buying into this theory. 

Even before that, though, I think deeply -NAO seasons were pretty scarce. I guess 2010-2011 would qualify, too....going back and looking over 30 years.

I would say 1995-1996, 2000-2001, 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 would fit the bill...2020-2021 wasn't quite extreme enough IMO.

4 going back 40 years, I would say...1986-1987 just misses like 2020-2021, IMO.

[snowman19]

1.2 is the lowest it’s been in a long time on the OISST daily today at +2.1 while region 4 is on the rise again at +1.3. So while this obviously won’t be a Modoki Nino by definition, if 1.2 continues to fall and 4 continues as high as it’s been it should make for some difficult long range forecasts. 

Nino 1+2 has stagnated above +2C for months now. It’s very likely to continue for another few months, the models have it remaining stagnated, holding above +2C right through February. While it definitely has peaked and is not going to +3C again, it’s unlikely to drop below +2C for any length of time into February. In fact, it’s going through some warming again right now

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even before that, though, I think deeply -NAO seasons were pretty scarce. I guess 2010-2011 would qualify, too....going back and looking over 30 years.

I would say 1995-1996, 2000-2001, 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 would fit the bill...2020-2021 wasn't quite extreme enough IMO.

4 going back 40 years, I would say...1986-1987 just misses like 2020-2021, IMO.

Yeah, even when I was a kid reading LWX AFDs I remember how hard it was to get a -NAO before CC accelerated. But when it happened, it really delivered.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Nino 1+2 has stagnated above +2C for months now. It’s very likely to continue for another few months, the models have it remaining stagnated above +2C right through February. While it definitely has peaked and is not going to +3C again, it’s unlikely to drop below +2C for any length of time into February. In fact, it’s going through some warming again right now

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png

I really don't think it makes much difference.

[GaWx]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am mixed on how much I buy into proposed impacts from CC, but one that I am increasingly adopting is the conceptualization that extremely negative NAO seasons are now exceedingly rare as a manifestation of it.... @GaWx Larry has posted numerous stats about how rare it has become (2009-2010 being the last) and it makes sense with the more compressed/faster flow making long duration/extreme blocks more difficult to achieve. Seems easier to pull off on the Pacific side, since it’s upstream and a larger domain space. Not sure if @bluewave's stuff about NAO blocks being displaced to the south plays into this.....maybe they are now frequently protruding out of the NAO domain space and this registering into the seasonal index less.

 Indeed, 2009-10 was the last El Niño with a sub -0.25 DJF (my def of -NAO). Before that, you have to go all of the way back to the El Nino of 1986-7! And then the two prior to 1986-7 didn’t. So, only two of the last 14 El Niño winters (14%) have had a -NAO with only 1 of the last 14 El Niño (7%) winters having sub -1 (2009-10). But before that, 8 of the prior 11 El Niño winters (73%) (covering 1977-8 back to 1951-2) did have a -NAO including 3 (27%) that had sub -1 NAOs (1976-7, 1968-9, 1963-4).
 
 So, only 2 of the last 14 El Niño winters but 8 of the prior 11. Is this due largely to CC?

 At the same time, summer -NAOs have increased in frequency since 2007 as @bluewavehas posted about: 12 of the last 17 summers (71%) have had a sub -0.25 NAO with 8 of the last 17 summers (47%) having had a very strong sub -1 NAO! Prior to that (2006 back to 1950), only 17 of 57 (30%) had a sub -0.25 NAO summer and a mere 4 of 57 (7%) had a sub -1 NAO summer! CC?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Indeed, 2009-10 was the last El Niño with a sub -0.25 DJF (my def of -NAO). Before that, you have to go all of the way back to the El Nino of 1986-7! And then the two prior to 1986-7 didn’t. So, only two of the last 14 El Niño winters (14%) have had a -NAO with only 1 of the last 14 El Niño (7%) winters having sub -1 (2009-10). But before that, 8 of the prior 11 El Niño winters (73%) (covering 1977-8 back to 1951-2) did have a -NAO including 3 (27%) that had sub -1 NAOs (1976-7, 1968-9, 1963-4).
 
 So, only 2 of the last 14 El Niño winters but 8 of the prior 11. Is this due largely to CC?

 At the same time, summer -NAOs have increased in frequency since 2007 as @bluewavehas posted about: 12 of the last 17 summers (71%) have had a sub -0.25 NAO with 8 of the last 17 summers (47%) having had a very strong sub -1 NAO! Prior to that (2006 back to 1950), only 17 of 57 (30%) had a sub -0.25 NAO summer and a mere 4 of 57 (7%) had a sub -1 NAO summer! CC?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Yeah, food for thought. 

If it were ONLY due to CC, wouldn’t we have seen more summer -NAOs at the same time when we started seeing less -NAO nino winters around 1978-1980 instead of not manifesting until 2007? 

Hard to separate existing atlantic variability out from CC when it comes to the NAO, but I think it’s just part of it. The warm/rising AMO up-cycle has been going on 40 years now, and I think that has something to do with it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Indeed, 2009-10 was the last El Niño with a sub -0.25 DJF (my def of -NAO). Before that, you have to go all of the way back to the El Nino of 1986-7! And then the two prior to 1986-7 didn’t. So, only two of the last 14 El Niño winters (14%) have had a -NAO with only 1 of the last 14 El Niño (7%) winters having sub -1 (2009-10). But before that, 8 of the prior 11 El Niño winters (73%) (covering 1977-8 back to 1951-2) did have a -NAO including 3 (27%) that had sub -1 NAOs (1976-7, 1968-9, 1963-4).
 
 So, only 2 of the last 14 El Niño winters but 8 of the prior 11. Is this due largely to CC?

 At the same time, summer -NAOs have increased in frequency since 2007 as @bluewavehas posted about: 12 of the last 17 summers (71%) have had a sub -0.25 NAO with 8 of the last 17 summers (47%) having had a very strong sub -1 NAO! Prior to that (2006 back to 1950), only 17 of 57 (30%) had a sub -0.25 NAO summer and a mere 4 of 57 (7%) had a sub -1 NAO summer! CC?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

This makes sense because its during the winter that the PV descends and compresses the flow against the poleward drifting HC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Yeah, food for thought. 

If it were ONLY due to CC, wouldn’t we have seen more summer -NAOs at the same time when we started seeing less -NAO nino winters around 1978-1980 instead of not manifesting until 2007? 

Hard to separate existing atlantic variability out from CC when it comes to the NAO, but I think it’s just part of it. The warm/rising AMO up-cycle has been going on 40 years now, and I think that has something to do with it. 

I don't mean only, but its playing a role IMO....just my opinion. I don't claim to be able to scientifically prove it.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, food for thought. 

If it were ONLY due to CC, wouldn’t we have seen more summer -NAOs at the same time when we started seeing less -NAO nino winters around 1978-1980 instead of not manifesting until 2007? 

Hard to separate existing atlantic variability out from CC when it comes to the NAO, but I think it’s just part of it. The warm/rising AMO up-cycle has been going on 40 years now, and I think that has something to do with it. 

They propose that the more -NAO in the summer is due to the decline in spring Canadian snow cover. While the more +NAO is winter is related to the cold blob. So a warming climate can affect the NAO in different ways depending on the season. 

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39466-6

 

[Terpeast]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They propose that the more -NAO in the summer is due to the decline in spring Canadian snow cover. While the more +NAO is winter is related to the cold blob. So a warming climate can affect the NAO in different ways depending on the season. 

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39466-6

 

Yeah, that might explain the two different NAO trends over different time frames. 

And thanks for raising the point about a cold blob, that would definitely play a role in strengthening the north Altantic jet. 

Right now, it seems to be there, if not a little displaced southward. Normally it should be NE of newfoundland expanding up towards near Iceland. But it looks south-ish with some noisy mix of gulfstream waters. Not sure what to make of it.

[griteater]

On 10/17/2023 at 5:11 PM, griteater said:

Here is your November Itinerary

 

10/31 (Aftn): CANSIPS Update on Twitter

10/31 (Evening): CANSIPS Update on Tropical Tidbits

11/3: Aug-Oct ENSO ONI & ENSO RONI Updates from NOAA

11/5: Update of Euro Seasonal Forecast

11/5: ENSO MEIv2 Update from NOAA

11/10: Update of Copernicus C3S Ensemble Seasonal (with this, can also view JMA / Meteo France / UKMet Office updates) 

11/10 to 11/20: Update of JAMSTEC Seasonal

Well, we’re off to a rough start with the CANSIPS failing to update so far on customary outlets like Trop Tidbits and WxBell 

[snowman19]

Yeah, that might explain the two different NAO trends over different time frames. 
And thanks for raising the point about a cold blob, that would definitely play a role in strengthening the north Altantic jet. 
Right now, it seems to be there, if not a little displaced southward. Normally it should be NE of newfoundland expanding up towards near Iceland. But it looks south-ish with some noisy mix of gulfstream waters. Not sure what to make of it.

To me, that looks nothing like a classic tripole. For reference….

Tripole: https://www.ilsnow.com/videoblog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/tripole.png

[snowman19]

Nino 3.4 about to eclipse +1.8C on OISST with more warming to come: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/sst_graph_nino34.png

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, griteater said:

Well, we’re off to a rough start with the CANSIPS failing to update so far on customary outlets like Trop Tidbits and WxBell 

I want my money back!

[brooklynwx99]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

To me, that looks nothing like a classic tripole. For reference….

Tripole: https://www.ilsnow.com/videoblog/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/tripole.png

in the same way that background warming may limit the effect of strong El Niños, it would also wash stuff like that out. instead of warm-cold-warm, you get hot-normal-hot like what we’re seeing now… the signature is still there

[snowman19]

in the same way that background warming may limit the effect of strong El Niños, it would also wash stuff like that out. instead of warm-cold-warm, you get hot-normal-hot like what we’re seeing now… the signature is still there

If that’s the case that we can’t get cold water anymore, then how did we just have a 3 year solid La Niña, -PDO with cold water in the GOA and off the west coast and a very strong -PMM with cold waters off of Baja??

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If that’s the case that we can’t get cold water anymore, then how did we just have a 3 year solid La Niña, -PDO with cold water in the GOA and off the west coast and a very strong -PMM with cold waters off of Baja??

Now who's being reductive?

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Well, we’re off to a rough start with the CANSIPS failing to update so far on customary outlets like Trop Tidbits and WxBell 

Yea, I was so bummed last night when it did not update on tropical tidbits. I'm just mad today because it still has not, lol. 

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

Well, we’re off to a rough start with the CANSIPS failing to update so far on customary outlets like Trop Tidbits and WxBell 

 

Just saw this:

I just wish i knew where they got it?? They are the only ones I've seen have access. ????

[griteater]

46 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

in the same way that background warming may limit the effect of strong El Niños, it would also wash stuff like that out. instead of warm-cold-warm, you get hot-normal-hot like what we’re seeing now… the signature is still there

Agree, it’s not a perfect tripole, but it’s far away from the days of having the big cold sea there off the tip of Greenland when we were having a run of multiple +NAO winters in a row 

[snowman19]

 
Just saw this:
I just wish i knew where they got it?? They are the only ones I've seen have access. ????

Something is wrong. Look at the run initialization date…October 31, 2024

[Terpeast]

Ok so what's going on with CANSIPS? 

[mitchnick]

54 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Just saw this:

I just wish i knew where they got it?? They are the only ones I've seen have access. ????

They got those maps from the same link I  posted last night, one page back in this thread.

And it was cold off the presses by the time they posted it this afternoon. 

https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/cansips_charts.asp

[FPizz]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They got those maps from the same link I  posted last night, one page back in this thread.

And it was cold off the presses by the time they posted it this afternoon. 

https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/cansips_charts.asp

But not posted anywhere on this site from anyone.  

[GaWx]

 Today’s EPS continues with the idea of a weak SPV by mid Dec with the mean of the members’ 60N mean wind at 10 mb (well up in the strat.) dipping down to only 21 m/s on Dec 16th vs average for that date of 35 m/s. The % of members with a major or impending major SSW during early to mid Dec is similar to yesterday’s of 18%. Longterm climo based chances of a major SSW at any point in Dec is only ~10%. So, this means that the chance for a major SSW next month is per the EPS well above the normal chance even though it still isn’t likely as of now. Regardless, a weak SPV favors a -AO.

Edit: ~85% of the 101 members are below the normal of 35 m/s at the end of the run, which is 12/16/23. This all means that the signal for a weak SPV is probably just about as strong as you’ll ever see at day 45 keeping in mind that ensemble means have a tendency to revert closer to climo the further out they go. In other words, it would be virtually impossible for day 45 to have 100% of members below climo. Getting 85% to do that is very hard to do unless there’s an unusually strong signal.

[mitchnick]

21 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Here we go. New Cansips. 850 temps at or a littie below but surface temps a little above. Precip, I  think, AN in the east. No 500mb maps unfortunately. 

https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/cansips_charts.asp

 

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

But not posted anywhere on this site from anyone.  

@FPizz Huh? I said I  posted it yesterday and it was on the previous page.