El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO if this Nino goes super, it behaves as the ONI suggests. An ONI of over +2C is going to alter the global heat budget and the forcing and we see typical super Nino behavior this winter should that happen. I can be wrong but that would be my best guess

So you don't think the MEI matters much...

Okay, fair enough....the only example of what you are suggesting is 1965, which had a peak ONI of 2.0, MEI of 1.6 and RONI of 2.00.

I think that is reasonable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

RONI growth from JJA value to peak

1982 1.65

1997 .74

2015 1.11

MEI growth from JA value to peak

1982 .8

1997 .1

2015 .2

Lets assume an aggressive 1982 like growth curve for the balance of the fall into the cold season....

RONI peak of 2.25

MEI peak of 1.2

 

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@snowman19 Do you agree this is a fair assessmenet? I would wager RONI being a bit lower than that and MEI a touch higher.

 

 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So you don't think the MEI matters much...

Okay, fair enough....the only example of what you are suggesting is 1965, which had a peak ONI of 2.0, MEI of 1.6 and RONI of 2.00.

I think that is reasonable.

This kind of an outcome would make sense to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe 1925 also meets that criteria...IDK. I only consider back to 1950.

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe 1925 also meets that criteria...IDK. I only consider back to 1950.

Just to clarify since this has come up before, there’s no indication that 1925-6 was anything close to a super strong El Niño. These two sources suggest it peaked at only low end strong:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

https://data.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

-1896-7 and 1930-1 were stronger per these sources though still short of super.

-1877-8 was almost certainly super and 1888-9 was probably super per these

[brooklynwx99]

I mean, if anything, we're likely going to see a EWB over the eastern Pacific in the short term, which likely leads to more cooling or at least stagnation. we're running out of time for this event to actually become super. I find a 2.0C event over three trimonthly periods hard to believe given it's already October

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Just to clarify since this has come up before, there’s no indication that 1925-6 was anything close to a super strong El Niño. These two sources suggest it peaked at only low end strong:

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

https://data.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5

-1896-7 and 1930-1 were stronger per these sources though still short of super.

-1877-8 was almost certainly super and 1888-9 was probably super per these

Thanks. I honestly didn't know...like I said, I only look back to 1950. I only mentioned 1925 because snowman and Paul Roundy mentioned it as a very good analog for this el nino, which they perceive as being a classic east based event.

[GaWx]

On 9/24/2023 at 4:46 AM, GaWx said:

 Today we got an impressive 35th day in a row of a -SOI, which I assume is indicative of atmospheric El Niño coupling. It does appear that the streak will probably end within two days due to rising Tahiti pressures.

 To compare, the longest -SOI streak for either the 1998-9 through 2000-1 or the 2020-1 through 2022-3 triple La Niña events was only 11 days. The negative correlation of SOI with ONI is high.

I said per the above that the -SOI streak would probably end by yesterday. It still hasn’t ended with the streak barely hanging on with -3 today making it a 39 day -SOI streak per this:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[GaWx]

 I’m not a big Bastardi fan these days due to what I feel is a serious lack of objectivity and apparent hidden agendas, but I suspect that many here will agree with this at least to some extent (sounds like a RONI better indicator than ONI idea, which I think has merit):

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m not a big Bastardi fan these days due to what I feel is a serious lack of objectivity and apparent hidden agendas, but I suspect that many here will agree with this at least to some extent (sounds like a RONI better indicator than ONI idea, which I think has merit):

 

Agree all around. 

[bluewave]

Nino 3.4 back to moderate levels near +1.4 as the Niña-like lack of any appreciable WWBs continues. The much lower RONI and MEI isn’t allowing the trades to fully relax like we typically see during Ninos. So the competing influences are currently acting as brake on El Niño development. 
 

 

 

 

[roardog]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nino 3.4 back to moderate levels near +1.4 as the Niña-like lack of any appreciable WWBs continues. The much lower RONI and MEI isn’t allowing the trades to fully relax like we typically see during Ninos. So the competing influences are currently acting as brake on El Niño development. 
 

 

 

 

The water along the west coast of the US is really cooling down too, going back to more of the classic -PDO look. Mixed signals everywhere right now. 

[mitchnick]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nino 3.4 back to moderate levels near +1.4 as the Niña-like lack of any appreciable WWBs continues. The much lower RONI and MEI isn’t allowing the trades to fully relax like we typically see during Ninos. So the competing influences are currently acting as brake on El Niño development. 
 

 

 

 

I don't believe any of the models in their September updates predicted this drop. How anyone thinks he/she/models can accurately predict ONI numbers, and sound so confident about it, is laughable. Yet, we've all seen the tweets/posts. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, roardog said:

The water along the west coast of the US is really cooling down too, going back to more of the classic -PDO look. Mixed signals everywhere right now. 

The daily -2.52 -PDO is lower than any readings with the La Niña from last fall into winter. I believe it’s also the lowest -PDO reading for a Nino 3.4 reading near +1.4. 

 

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

 

[Itryatgolf70]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The daily -2.52 -PDO is lower than any readings with the La Niña from last fall into winter. I believe it’s also the lowest -PDO reading for a Nino 3.4 reading near +1.4. 

 

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

 

Chris, ultimately don't we want to see region 3.4 warmer than 1.2 whatever way it can happen by winter or no?

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I don't believe any of the models in their September updates predicted this drop. How anyone thinks he/she/models can accurately predict ONI numbers, and sound so confident about it, is laughable. Yet, we've all seen the tweets/posts. 

But we had hints. The OHC decline and the lack of WWBs were working against El Niño strengthening. Also the extremely Niña-like -PDO and associated trade wind pattern. We can remember the very strong -PDO in September 2012 and trades staying up that caused all the models to miss the decline. We still got the backloaded El Niño February with NEMO so all was forgiven. 

 

 

[mitchnick]

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But we had hints. The OHC decline and the lack of WWBs were working against El Niño strengthening. Also the extremely Niña-like -PDO and associated trade wind pattern. We can remember the very strong -PDO in September 2012 and trades staying up that caused all the models to miss the decline. We still got the backloaded El Niño February with NEMO so all was forgiven. 

 

 

We (me) got nada from Nemo. Another painful miss in my weenie winterless world that year. But thanks for reminding me.  lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Subsurface is warming actually pretty rapidly right now

https://ibb.co/1nrDtgp

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The daily -2.52 -PDO is lower than any readings with the La Niña from last fall into winter. I believe it’s also the lowest -PDO reading for a Nino 3.4 reading near +1.4. 

https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

Should be an interesting Winter.

Aleutian low's and high's have been going back and forth, but this is a pretty good +PNA signal in the extended

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

 

[Terpeast]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Should be an interesting Winter.

Aleutian low's and high's have been going back and forth, but this is a pretty good +PNA signal in the extended

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

 

I see the back and forth, too.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I see the back and forth, too.

SSTs are somewhat secondary to atmospheric conditions, and the El Nino has not yet taken control, getting out of the Weak-Moderate impacts/effects limbo range. 

[so_whats_happening]

13 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I posted this yesterday.  Waters around Japan cooling rapidly as of 9/25, so no reason to worry about that yet imho.

This has actually been hit quite a few times by rather strong cooling episodes and has been rather resistant for most of the summer, so we shall see. Feel we need a significant typhoon to move through that region to really stir things up. Slow moving would be the best.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Should be an interesting Winter.

Aleutian low's and high's have been going back and forth, but this is a pretty good +PNA signal in the extended

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

 

Plenty of PNA volatility which leads to big model shifts from run to run. So the models can’t figure out whether the El Niño or -PDO will be running the show leading to big swings from run to run.

 

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Plenty of PNA volatility which leads to big model shifts from run to run. So the models can’t figure out whether the El Niño or -PDO will be running the show leading to big swings from run to run.

 

If the MEI remains in the weak range, probably neither. The polar tele’s might have a bigger say. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

If the MEI remains in the weak range, probably neither. The polar tele’s might have a bigger say. 

It should peak at moderate IMO.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

If the MEI remains in the weak range, probably neither. The polar tele’s might have a bigger say. 

The -NAO has been negative most of time since June 1st.

 

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The -NAO has been negative most of time since June 1st.

 

Worth considering whether the super warm north atlantic might be driving a predominant -nao. It does make sense when I think about how much heat is transported north between greenland and scandinavia

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Worth considering whether the super warm north atlantic might be driving a predominant -nao. It does make sense when I think about how much heat is transported north between greenland and scandinavia

It would be nice if some of this record summer blocking found its way over to the winter. 
 

 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The -NAO has been negative most of time since June 1st.

 

 Based on data since 1950, this summer’s strongly -NAO itself isn’t at all predictive of a -NAO for the upcoming winter. The factors leading to summer -NAOs, which have become much more frequent since 2007 (2/3 of those summers vs only 1/5 of summers 1950-2006), don’t necessarily continue into winter, which has had much less frequent -NAOs in recent decades.

 Here are years with sub -0.50 summer NAO followed by the subsequent winter’s NAO (data goes back to 1950):

* = El Niño winter

 

-2023: -1.27/????*

 

-2019: -1.23/+1.27

-2016: -1.28/+0.65

-2015: -1.34/+1.31*

-2014: -0.82/+1.66*

-2012: -1.61/+0.02

-2011: -1.38/+1.37

-2010: -0.82/-0.68

-2009: -1.18/-1.67*

-2008: -1.27/-0.08

-2007: -0.68/+0.65

-1998: -1.07/+0.64

-1993: -1.22/+1.22

-1987: -0.71/+0.70*

-1989: -1.01/+0.69

-1974: -0.51/+0.49

-1963: -0.61/-1.43*

-1962: -0.72/-1.47

-1958: -1.56/-0.30*

-1957: -0.82/-0.49*

-1956: -0.67/+0.42

-1954: -0.92/-0.76

 

Anal. of 21 DJF NAO after sub -0.5 NAO summers:

- Subsequent winter: 57% (12) +NAO, 10% (2) neutral NAO, 33% (7) -NAO

- There have been 11 sub -1.00 NAO summers since 1950 (excluding 2023). Of these 11, 64% (7) of the subsequent winters had a +NAO.

- Of the last five of these sub -1.00 summer NAOs (2019, 2016, 2015, 2012, 2011), four were followed by a +NAO winter, including 3 of the 4 strongest +NAO winters (2019, 2015, 2011).

- However, for the 7 El Niño winters, alone: 43% (3) were +NAO and 57% (4) were -NAO despite a -NAO occurring during only one of last four El Niño winter cases (2009).

- Of the 7 -NAO winter cases, 4 were during El Niño

 

Conclusions:

- No correlation is suggested in general between summer -NAO, even if sub -1.00, and following winter -NAO. 

- Summer -NAOs have become much more frequent recently even while winter -NAOs have been less frequent in recent decades.

- But 2023 being El Niño MIGHT help -NAO chances somewhat for upcoming winter.

- However, El Niño sample size pretty small and most recent two El Niño cases (2015 and 2014) had two of the three strongest +NAO winters.

- There have been only 6 -NAO winters during the last 44 and those all had low (~30 or fewer) sunspots. In contrast, the upcoming winter sunspot # is expected to be very high (~150+).

- Based on all the above, I’m maintaining my earlier prediction that despite this summer’s strong -NAO that the upcoming winter NAO will not average sub -0.25 (my def of -NAO) though I’m currently leaning -NAO for February.
 

Monthly NAO:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[snowman19]

Subsurface is warming actually pretty rapidly right now
https://ibb.co/1nrDtgp

We don’t need strong WWBs anymore at this point in the season. This event goes super. All you need now is a Pacific MJO wave to propagate by, which is very likely next month. I’m extremely confident we see a major coupling event and subsequent big strengthening next month. My guess stands, a trimonthly ONI peak between +2.1C - +2.3C for NDJ. This is going to take off for the races with an MJO event next month, the day to day variability is just noise that this point

[griteater]

Paul Roundy has spoken...