WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS…. Very unusual evolution. Will be interesting to see how this plays out… Can tell you now, it won’t do that. We don’t do backside snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: It looks a bit convoluted, discombobulated, and confused. Been that way for awhile though. Is there any blocking going on on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 MID ATLANTIC BRISTOW BULLSEYE MONEY-LINE -GFS - off the board -EURO - off the board -EPS - off the board -CMC - off the board -JMA- +10,000 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 55 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: So, record snow from bombogenesis (which should decrease in frequency with a warming climate, according to IPCC 6) in Buffalo is climate change. Record cold is climate change. And droughts of snow is climate change. When it is super hot it is climate change. When we have drought it is climate change. When we rain more than normal it is climate change. Bigger hurricanes (which we haven’t seen) are the result of climate change. Got it. Are there any weather phenomena that are not the result of climate change? Lol No. Lol That’s the game. All about money and control. We humans can’t control how the globe behaves. Even they acknowledge that if we followed all of the suggestions, every country followed the suggestions, it wouldn’t really make much difference. We have a better shot going to the beach and pushing back high tide with a broom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 59 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: So, record snow from bombogenesis (which should decrease in frequency with a warming climate, according to IPCC 6) in Buffalo is climate change. Record cold is climate change. And droughts of snow is climate change. When it is super hot it is climate change. When we have drought it is climate change. When we rain more than normal it is climate change. Bigger hurricanes (which we haven’t seen) are the result of climate change. Got it. Are there any weather phenomena that are not the result of climate change? Lol No doubt we are in a warming cycle. Not much we can do about it. Push the broom faster I guess. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Poor comparison imo. The period leading up to that had a west based block with a 50-50 low (in a Nino), which we can see the remnants of there as it broke down just ahead of the approaching storm- often associated with a KU. The height pattern progressed to that point a completely different way than we are looking at now. Plus the lower 48 and Canada wasn't a torch leading in. Ya the not being a torch part is my main argument. The longwave pattern isn’t the problem it’s that the whole N American airmass is torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS 10am Fri. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Here is an uplifting thought. The last 7 years have been so awful that even if DC has what would be a miraculous recovery and ends this season with 15” it would still need to average 26” over the next 3 seasons for the 10 year period to end up at DCAs already lowered and atrocious current 30 year avg of 14”. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1pm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4pm 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 am Sat. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 That’s the most likely scenario Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 What do we put stock in? Still the GEFS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 am Sat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Some of the recent posts maybe should go here- https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/ Have fun. 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Soooo the GEFS get colder as the storm evolves. That is actually an encouraging turn of event perhaps. This is nowhere near nailed down and yes there are concerns still which I won't repeat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 10 am Sat mean. We are in the game for another 6 hours, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Doesn't the gefs have a lag to changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Some of the recent posts maybe should go here- https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/ Have fun. You’re right. We should be discussing the pattern. Here…. that’s way less depressing 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You’re right. We should be discussing the pattern. Here…. that’s way less depressing lol . That post wasn't directed at you btw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS held its own… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol . That post wasn't directed at you btw. cant wait till we go back to the global cooling cycle. The 2nd ice age was coming in the 1970s. Were due! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 the GEFS has become the GFS from 9 years ago....blue on every run from October to March 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: lol . That post wasn't directed at you btw. I know I’m just being a smart arse. Trying to have some fun with this god awful state we’re in. Thing is it’s not that we have gone 8 years since a big snow season. For me the frustrating thing is that a lot of the years in between good ones are becoming total ratters. Since we spend 80-90% of the time not in those rare unicorn seasons it’s way more important Imo what the typical base state is in the interim periods. I would gladly give up some snow during those 1-2 good seasons in order to actually get closer to a respectable amount of snow during the other 8 years a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ji said: cant wait till we go back to the global cooling cycle. The 2nd ice age was coming in the 1970s. Were due! An extended solar minimum and a few major volcanic eruptions and we are good to go. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ji said: cant wait till we go back to the global cooling cycle. The 2nd ice age was coming in the 1970s. Were due! Someone murdered the guy who was supposed to flip the switch on the were due switchboard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS held its own… I dunno my retirement options went from 3 to 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS held its own…I’ll go with p26. P30 from earlier smoked the northern tier but left the cities with a smaller, yet still respectable snow. If this is going to pan out and be a biggie, I hope as many of us as possible get smoked. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I know I’m just being a smart arse. Trying to have some fun with this god awful state we’re in. Thing is it’s not that we have gone 8 years since a big snow season. For me the frustrating thing is that a lot of the years in between good ones are becoming total ratters. Since we spend 80-90% of the time not in those rare unicorn seasons it’s way more important Imo what the typical base state is in the interim periods. I would gladly give up some snow during those 1-2 good seasons in order to actually get closer to a respectable amount of snow during the other 8 years a decade. Without getting too much into 'that', I have accepted (esp in my location) that the marginal events that used to work are going to be mostly rain now(we shall see about a moderate Nino with blocking. If that doesn't work..). Thus why I root for PNA/big -EPO pattern and cross polar flow. Didn't used to need that- but now, maybe. Plus in recent winters those type patterns have worked out pretty good for the MA coastal plain. New normal maybe. Not a big snow pattern, but I don't care so much about that. When we do get the cold periods, I will gladly take cold powder moderate snow events followed by more Arctic cold and temps near zero. My idea of winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: I hope as many of us as possible get smoked. That’s what as many of as possible should be doing … smoking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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