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December 2022


dmillz25
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Just now, bluewave said:

It would be nice if some long range forecasting blogs update their climo and stop discussing winter analog packages from the colder 76-77 to 93-94 era. It’s been difficult to find many winter analogs even before the 15-16 super El Niño that are still valid. But discussing analogs from colder eras seems to bring a sense of nostalgia so I can understand where it is coming from. But the likelihood of seeing a repeat of January 1977, 1982, 1985, or 1994 is pretty much nonexistent in our much warmer world.

I'm not sure how much enso factors in, as I think you can find mediocre to bad winters in all types of enso.  If you did a strict enso based breakdown of our under 30" snowfall winters (what I'd consider mediocre), I bet it doesn't matter whether you have a la nina, el nino or neutral, the majority of our snowfall seasons in all types of enso would be in that mediocre or less category.

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Just now, bluewave said:

It would be nice if some long range forecasting blogs update their climo and stop discussing winter analog packages from the colder 76-77 to 93-94 era. It’s been difficult to find many winter analogs even before the 15-16 super El Niño that are still valid. But discussing analogs from colder eras seems to bring a sense of nostalgia so I can understand where it is coming from. But the likelihood of seeing a repeat of January 1977, 1982, 1985, or 1994 is pretty much nonexistent in our much warmer world.

Using analog years is one of the main reasons why so many winter forecasts fail.  

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12 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Why are people complaining about the GFS after day 7. No model is good after day 5-6. Using the GFS at hour 378 is comedy.

The truth is that the GFS is the 1st model to catch the issues with the pac and the SE ridge. Euro caught on 2 days later.

The EPS have been AWFUL! Not sure what people are looking at. The EPS have looked great in the day 7-15 period for 3 weeks and keeps pushing back the pattern. EPS was atrocious last year as well.

 

Short memories.

That much is true.   People discounted it b/c "it's the GFS" but have to look at all guidance.   EPS was bad in 19-20 as well showing a good pattern 2nd half of winter that never came.

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be nice if some long range forecasting blogs update their climo and stop discussing winter analog packages from the colder 76-77 to 93-94 era. It’s been difficult to find many winter analogs even before the 15-16 super El Niño that are still valid. But discussing analogs from colder eras seems to bring a sense of nostalgia so I can understand where it is coming from. But the likelihood of seeing a repeat of January 1977, 1982, 1985, or 1994 is pretty much nonexistent in our much warmer world.

Was 13/14 14/15 17/18 close to those cold winters? 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be nice if some long range forecasting blogs update their climo and stop discussing winter analog packages from the colder 76-77 to 93-94 era. It’s been difficult to find many winter analogs even before the 15-16 super El Niño that are still valid. But discussing analogs from colder eras seems to bring a sense of nostalgia so I can understand where it is coming from. But the likelihood of seeing a repeat of January 1977, 1982, 1985, or 1994 is pretty much nonexistent in our much warmer world.

Early mid 80’s and 94 also had some volcanic aerosol forcing, FYI. It’s a part of it, but of course not all of it. Otherwise I completely agree, I don’t see how analogues prior to the last twenty years make much sense anymore. 

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14 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Why are people complaining about the GFS after day 7. No model is good after day 5-6. Using the GFS at hour 378 is comedy.

The truth is that the GFS is the 1st model to catch the issues with the pac and the SE ridge. Euro caught on 2 days later.

The EPS have been AWFUL! Not sure what people are looking at. The EPS have looked great in the day 7-15 period for 3 weeks and keeps pushing back the pattern. EPS was atrocious last year as well.

 

Short memories.

The gfs is still a horrible model but the gefs have been doing great in the pac this month so far. It has been way better then the eps in that area 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be nice if some long range forecasting blogs update their climo and stop discussing winter analog packages from the colder 76-77 to 93-94 era. It’s been difficult to find many winter analogs even before the 15-16 super El Niño that are still valid. But discussing analogs from colder eras seems to bring a sense of nostalgia so I can understand where it is coming from. But the likelihood of seeing a repeat of January 1977, 1982, 1985, or 1994 is pretty much nonexistent in our much warmer world.

Winters like 2009-10, 2010-11 , 2013-14, and 2014-15 spoiled many people.

I'd put 2017-18 in that same category, even with the mild February.

It can happen but it's rare, if you get it once a decade you're lucky. We've had it way more than we should so expect a return to our once a decade type decent winters.

 

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its funny how people think we need a NAO. Yes it's beneficial for a big slow moving storm but not for snow .

It's better later in the season.   It will cut off the cold air supply so in Jan/Feb it at least has a better chance of trapping a decent airmass (which is what happened in 2009-10 winter).   In December you're likely to trap a crap airmass and that's exactly what we are getting....

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2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Early mid 80’s and 94 also had some volcanic aerosol forcing, FYI. It’s a part of it, but of course not all of it. Otherwise I completely agree, I don’t see how analogues prior to the last twenty years make much sense anymore. 

But then again you could say the extremes can go in either direction-- 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2017-18 are proof of that.

 

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Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

for the winter of 14-15 there was little winter weather until a historic pattern set up in late January.  That pattern is likely a once every 300-400 year pattern.

To me that was close to 93/94 type winter with systems every few days that had several precipitation types followed by record cold 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

09-10 was just cold enough and 10-11 wasn’t very cold either 

in 2010-11 the snowpack somehow stuck around for the better part of two months though and shattered some records.

That was the most snow I've seen on the ground at one time here on the south shore in my 40 years of living here.

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

in 2010-11 the snowpack somehow stuck around for the better part of two months though and shattered some records.

That was the most snow I've seen on the ground at one time here on the south shore in my 40 years of living here.

 

I just don’t remember it being very cold but the snow pac was incredible. February 21 was a fun stretch here locally. 

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17 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I don’t want to derail but will just acknowledge that this is definitely true, and also a big part of the reason there are so many people who hear about AGW and go, “so what?”

 

Back to the Goofus and Eurine show. 

We're shielded from the more severe AGW impacts as well. We also haven't had our Pac NW crazy summer ridge yet 

That would def raise a lot of eyebrows 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

2014-15 was more backloaded though and more pure snow vs 1993-94.  Winter basically started around Jan 20 and continued until Mar 20.

 

Here in NE Mass there wasn't a lot of snow after early March 2015. It did remain cold into early April.  I moved into my home mid December 93. The first snowstorm occurred  a few days after Christmas.  Prior to that there were several coastal storms but it was too warm for snow BUT it was a good sign that there were coastal storms.

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Good morning everyone, it is 50 degrees at Central Park this morning and cloudy and rain is about to move in. It doesn't look heavy just a nuisance. Hopefully it gets colder in the weeks coming up because global warming it seems like it really is taking a toll now. Have a great day reader.

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Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Here in NE Mass there wasn't a lot of snow after early March 2015. It did remain cold into early April.  I moved into my home mid December 93. The first snowstorm occurred  a few days after Christmas.  Prior to that there were several coastal storms but it was too warm for snow BUT it was a good sign that there were coastal storms.

Our first accumulating snowfall was a 4-5 incher a few days after Christmas (must have been the same one), I remember thinking it was a really good sign to get a storm like that in December and we had two storms a week for the rest of the winter, even though only a couple were all snow, we still ran out of salt that season!

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Our first accumulating snowfall was a 4-5 incher a few days after Christmas (must have been the same one), I remember thinking it was a really good sign to get a storm like that in December and we had two storms a week for the rest of the winter, even though only a couple were all snow, we still ran out of salt that season!

 

Yes, very likely the same storm. 

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