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Central PA Fall 2022


Bubbler86
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The 12Z Euro is just a wow for LSV and near.  A slew of records would fall...both daytime high and nighttime max mins.   Using the 3-5 rule which was almost too low today with CXY and MDT both getting to 72/73, 2 or 3 days in the 80's spanning into next week.     Just weather prog talk and not a forecast.    The euro is the hottie model of course.   Worst case here, MDT could be double digit AN by the time the first 10 days of Nov are over. 

 

MDT wise, no day has ever hit 80 after Nov 2nd.   

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34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The 12Z Euro is just a wow for LSV and near.  A slew of records would fall...both daytime high and nighttime max mins.   Using the 3-5 rule which was almost too low today with CXY and MDT both getting to 72/73, 2 or 3 days in the 80's spanning into next week.     Just weather prog talk and not a forecast.    The euro is the hottie model of course.   Worst case here, MDT could be double digit AN by the time the first 10 days of Nov are over. 

 

MDT wise, no day has ever hit 80 after Nov 2nd.   

Time for Canderson's forecast for a +8 month. 

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Some cold weather records may be set here Thursday and Friday... :(

Thursday
A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Southwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 41. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light northwest in the evening.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.
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7 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Some cold weather records may be set here Thursday and Friday... :(

Thursday
A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Southwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 41. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light northwest in the evening.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 64. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Cold in the west usually means warmth in the east...

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3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

The 12Z Euro is just a wow for LSV and near.  A slew of records would fall...both daytime high and nighttime max mins.   Using the 3-5 rule which was almost too low today with CXY and MDT both getting to 72/73, 2 or 3 days in the 80's spanning into next week.     Just weather prog talk and not a forecast.    The euro is the hottie model of course.   Worst case here, MDT could be double digit AN by the time the first 10 days of Nov are over. 

 

MDT wise, no day has ever hit 80 after Nov 2nd.   

Let’s break the record, all time warmest Nov 

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If my dispatcher sends me to Flagstaff on Thursday, I'll see accumulating snow before you guys will.

Wednesday Night
A chance of rain showers before 8pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 8pm and 10pm, then snow showers likely after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow showers. High near 26. Southwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Thursday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 12. West wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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8 minutes ago, Voyager said:

If my dispatcher sends me to Flagstaff on Thursday, I'll see accumulating snow before you guys will.

Wednesday Night
A chance of rain showers before 8pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 8pm and 10pm, then snow showers likely after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow showers. High near 26. Southwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Thursday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 12. West wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Texas and Arizona do early accums better than we do. Now....if short pump gets on the board before us, that will be sad.

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2 hours ago, Voyager said:

If my dispatcher sends me to Flagstaff on Thursday, I'll see accumulating snow before you guys will.

Wednesday Night
A chance of rain showers before 8pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 8pm and 10pm, then snow showers likely after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 17 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow showers. High near 26. Southwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Thursday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 12. West wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 16 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

We might have Heat Advisories here this weekend!

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12 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I do you think it will get in the 80s.

I think the warmer stations make the 80's 1-2 times (18Z plus 3-5) just due to the consistency of the modeling showing it over and over.  Sat to Tue time frame.  If it happens, we could have both highs and lows coming in at 22-25 degrees AN.    Like I mentioned, it has never made it above 80 at MDT past today/Nov 2nd.   Might not be popular to speak about but the "potential" is there for some rare weather this weekend.  Normal high at MDT on Sat is 58.  @Voyager is probably feeling like times when most of us go on vaca and a snowstorm is coming...wishing vaca was another week. 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think the warmer stations make the 80's 1-2 times just due to the consistency of the modeling showing it over and over.  Sat to Tue time frame.  If it happens, we could have both highs and lows coming in at 22-25 degrees AN.    Like I mentioned, it has never made it above 80 at MDT past today/Nov 2nd.   Might not be popular to speak about but the "potential" is there for some rare weather this weekend.  Normal high at MDT on Sat is 58.

I won't complain. I'll take the warmth. Maybe someone should go get Voyager so he can bask in the warmth. I'm sure we'll pay for this warm spell. It won't be long till the winds will be blowing out of the northwest @ 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 and temps in the 20s-30s. Not looking forward to that wind!

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10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I won't complain. I'll take the warmth. Maybe someone should go get Voyager so he can bask in the warmth. I'm sure we'll pay for this warm spell. It won't be long till the winds will be blowing out of the northwest @ 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 and temps in the 20s-30s. Not looking forward to that wind!

The GFS suite keeps promising the end of its run...Mid Nov flip.  It has pushed it back a few days though vs. its original promise though the weather during the push back period is a little BN vs. a torch.  This would end the growing season for everyone.   Right now, we have summer weeds loving life.   Dandies popping up. 

 

image.png.5506c385b785b2c3941ba01a5ca73355.png

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The GFS suite keeps promising the end of its run...Mid Nov flip.  It has pushed it back a few days though vs. its original promise though the weather during the push back period is a little BN vs. a torch.  This would end the growing season for everyone.   Right now, we have summer weeds loving life.   Dandies popping up. 

 

image.png.5506c385b785b2c3941ba01a5ca73355.png

 

 

Petunias are basically the only flower with the Geraniums that are growing here. They must be hardy. And the cold has not yet killed the yellowjackets as they fly in your face. And the ladybug  (Asian beetle)  are hanging and swarming around the house on these warm days,  The frost and freezing temps. put and end to everything else. 

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9 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Petunias are basically the only flower with the Geraniums that are growing here. They must be hardy. And the cold has not yet killed the yellowjackets as they fly in your face. And the ladybug  (Asian beetle)  are hanging and swarming around the house on these warm days,  The frost and freezing temps. put and end to everything else. 

I covered our fruits, but it has not gone below 32 yet so although the grass may have slowed a bit, it is as green and lush as I have ever seen it and the covering was really not needed.   We are getting a dozen strawberries a week still and tomatoes are going strong.  Weird going into Nov. 

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