Met1985 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 The 6z is even wetter from the subtropical lows moisture. That would be awesome even if we get half that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Got up to watch the lunar eclipse. Perfect view out my bedroom window for it and perfect conditions with no clouds or light pollution in my are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 We have already got 2.5 in the past 10 days so if we get 3 or 4 more from this system, the drought will be over here pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 14 minutes ago, wncsnow said: We have already got 2.5 in the past 10 days so if we get 3 or 4 more from this system, the drought will be over here pretty much. Dang we barely got that here. We need a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Dang we barely got that here. We need a couple inches. Areas right along the Blue Ridge escarpment got pounded. Some places in Watauga actually got 4 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Very dry still west side of Apps. Hopefully the western most track solutions will verify for our sake's. Severe drought in portions of the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Euro and GFS have some subtle changes in the pattern with different time frames. Interesting to see these two not agree even a few days out. This usually means a big change in the pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Had a low of 30 this morning and a high of 55. A huge change from a couple days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Also looks like we are going to get some region wide beneficial rainfall also. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 21 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: Beyond the rainfall from Nicole, the pattern is beginning to look a bit interesting. A parade of disturbances appears likely trekking along the Northern Gulf into the SE beneath a potent full latitude trough. The first in a series of storm system begins to impact the Mountains Monday night into Tuesday with a chance of wintry weather and the second the following weekend and a third a few days before Thanksgiving. It looks like chilly air may well be entrenched during that time frame, it will be worth monitoring. I checked in this morning to Cataloochee's website and I noticed they were testing a few snow guns. It's that time of year! High mountains could get some wintry precip but there seems to be just enough of a SE ridge (and its mid November) to keep it too warm for most. Wetter pattern looks pretty certain unless the NW flow is too strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 00z gfs lays down a solid 1.5 to 3.5 inches of rainfall starting tomorrow. I absolutely love seeing this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phelps Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Was wondering if we’d get a little moisture in the mix with the cold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 NAM has some decent totals still but the GFS has some 4 plus inches along the southern escarpment. So a range of 2 to 4 inches from the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 42 minutes ago, Phelps said: Was wondering if we’d get a little moisture in the mix with the cold Thel day before October 18 they forecasted snowshowers in the highest elevations and it wound up snowing all the way to the lowest elevations that day. Granted, that was October and Climatology was so warm yet, that Mets and many of the gen. Population thought pretty much, no way it will in lower areas Mets generally adjust to Climatology. Ie, if Data is showing snow and 34 degrees Sunday night for Asheville, they'll say rain and 39 or so. If data continues to show snow and 34 they usually come down a degree or two each day closer to time of. Many will still jack up a couple degrees even the day of as they just look at the average Temperature so much. I disagree with adjusting to Climo as much as most do. I've saw it cause busted forecasts many times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 What a 45 minute drive makes in weather. At home in Haywood it's been raining all morning with very low clouds and here in Asheville there is blue sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Excited to kick the season off! Hope everyone had a good Summer & Fall, model tracking season is back in full action! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Maggie Ace said: The 12Z GFS suggests the possibility of accumulating snow in Asheville next Tuesday. It suggests rain/snow mix beginning here in Maggie Monday evening with 2 to 3 inches possible even into Waynesville. Cold air looks to wedge in nicely this weekend setting the stage for early next week. Wouldn't be surprised. It may take up till the day of before forecasts have it if Model's still showing it . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 If this upcoming pattern on the GFS repeats in January we'll be in good shape. Slider after slider into the extended.It's had that Tuesday overrunning event on and off for the last 10 days. I'm hopeful it works out, would be a great birthday present. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Steady rainfall all day and doesn't look to stop. Really glad to see a nice slow steady rain after such a dry Fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Already 7/10" and the system isn't even out of Florida yet. Actually a bit concerned about flooding up here, we got 2" that last event and really saturated the ground pretty good. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 A very wet night and day yesterday. Have already received 1.5 inches of rainfall which is something we have definitely needed. And the heaviest of the rainfall is still to come. Looks like another 1 to 3 inches according to the models. As for snow chances I think that is going to be for the border countys only and only light snow at that but it's only November. This is definitely a pattern change for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 For the southern mountains and escarpment brace yourself for some torrential rainfall coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 3.3" already and it's absolutely pouring. Wind hasn't been terrible yet Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said: 3.3" already and it's absolutely pouring. Wind hasn't been terrible yet Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk Yeah not much wind but has been absolutely hammering rainfall all morning. At work but I know I've got to be well over 2 inches here now. And more on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 We got some serious cells earlier that caused some flash flooding. 3 inches of rain so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 2.72” here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Wind is picking up as a nasty cell heads this way. Flash flood warning now in effect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 5.3" now, 4.23" since midnight. Rivers are absolutely roaring and flooding issues starting up. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Up to 3.81. Really been coming down last couple of hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Just hit 7". Probably get to 8 easily looking downstream.Road I live on is flooded for the first time I can remember. Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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