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July 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
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Some notable bust potential with temps around here on Saturday.  Seems like there is an increasing signal in guidance for convection in the LOT cwa on Fri night into Sat.  Questions revolve around the path, duration and how much overturning it will cause.  In a most extreme case with robust convection lingering into a good part of Saturday, temps would struggle to recover out of the 80s.  On the other hand, if convection doesn't materialize for some reason or misses north, then the thermal profiles that would be in place on Sat would result in highs deep into the 90s.  Probably have to go with a middle ground solution as of now with some morning convection but enough of a recovery for highs of 90+

This is the least surprising possibility of the year.
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I wonder what's more likely.  ORD hitting 90 or STL hitting 105.  

That’s a good one.

I’d go with the ORD option, just because it’s the easier of the two.

Now if you move the bars to 103 STL and 95 ORD, the STL option would be my pick.
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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


That’s a good one.

I’d go with the ORD option, just because it’s the easier of the two.

Now if you move the bars to 103 STL and 95 ORD, the STL option would be my pick.

That's why I picked 90 and 105... it's a tricky one.  00z HRRR actually has both things happening, as much of the convection passes south of Chicago.

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Long range GFS seems to really be sniffing out the potential heat wave. Obviously, unlikely and a long way out. But it did show 18z GFS temperatures in Michigan peaking at 109F (there were actually several days in a row where parts of the state were at or above 105F) and 106F in Ontario. These are 2 PM EDT temperatures... probably a good chance the high would be 1 or 2 degrees above those readings. All-time record for Michigan is 112F and Ontario 108F, so that's kind of intriguing to see on a 2+ week model. Wonder what it's seeing to come up with such high readings?

Prompted to me to check Twitter, but I didn't see any mention of the long range GFS. I did notice a number of Tweets from earlier in the month about the long-range GFS showing 40-42C in the UK. It was way early with the potential, but it actually happened. I'd say that's absolutely incredible that the GFS was able to sniff out the potential of a heat wave shattering the national record weeks in advance, even if the timing was way off. Absolutely astounding, really.

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It's not going to hold all through Sunday, but temps on Sunday morning look really torchy in a zone out ahead of the cold front with very warm air aloft and winds staying up.  Models verbatim have widespread 80s still at 4 am central time, not just in some localized urban core.

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We picked up quite a bit from the storms last night here in northern indiana. I'm in the process of acquiring a new stratus gauge so I didn't get any readings but other sources said 3 - 3.5" over the span of two hours. Really torrential rain. At one point I looked down to see it flooding into the warehouse around midnight.

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8 hours ago, Baum said:

see if LOT can verify for tonight. Great write ups as always, though have struggled with verification. Convection ain't easy.

it's a beautiful thing. And now clearing out as I speak.......

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