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The 2022 Summer Solstice-ish Scorcher(s)


Hoosier
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LOT has 99 at ORD tomorrow.  That better not happen... I mean, that has to be one of the worst numbers for a wx nerd.  Would rather come up short by 2.

Tomorrow's progged 850 mb temps are actually about the same as today in N IL, so at first glance you'd be wondering how it could outperform today.  But there a couple things working in favor... 1) temps tomorrow morning will have a several degree head start over this morning and 2) mixing should be deeper/more efficient.   

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Feel like I may be a degree high at Midway tomorrow.  If I could change, would maybe go 102 there.  Gonna hope and pray that ORD pulls out 100, but low-medium confidence at best.

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On 6/18/2022 at 12:42 PM, Hoosier said:

Tldr version:

Mon:  95 ORD, 98 MDW

Tue:  100 ORD, 103 MDW

Actual Mon highs: 

95 ORD 

97 MDW

Was actually going to go 97 at MDW before deciding on 98.  Just missed out on perfection today lol

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Actual Mon highs: 
95 ORD 
97 MDW
Was actually going to go 97 at MDW before deciding on 98.  Just missed out on perfection today lol

you may have won the battle, but I still don’t think you win the war.
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Gino is going for it.

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
834 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 834 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Going forecast is in good shape with just some minor tweaks to
tomorrow`s temperatures and dewpoints. Have generally bumped up
temps a couple degrees, which now explicitly has O`hare reaching
100, Midway 102, and Rockford 100. Guidance, in particular the GFS
and NAM, have been exhibiting a significant cool bias. For
instance, this morning`s 12z GFS forecast high temps for Monday
were 6-11F too low across the area with substantially higher
dewpoints as well. The recently developing flash drought with
substantially evaporation and little rainfall over the past week
or so has left top soil quite dry. Guidance is likely overdoing
evapotranspiration resulting in a significant 2m Td high bias and
2m temp low bias. The ECMWF has been performing much better with
surface temps and dewpoints, but has maintained the small cool
bias in temps which it has exhibited for months now.

Above the surface, there is good agreement between the GFS, NAM,
and ECMWF showing between 2-4C of warming tomorrow afternoon at
925mb, compared with today`s 925mb temps. That degree of warming
at 925mb should equate to surface temps Tuesday running 3-5F
hotter than today. Given full or nearly full sunshine, should see
deep mixing which should also allow dewpoints to mix out in the
afternoon, particularly southeastern 2/3rd of the CWA. Farther
northwest toward Rockford and Dixon, it is possible dewpoints may
hold on a bit better as they start to feel the effects of some
moisture pooling ahead of the approaching front. That should
result in slightly higher heat indices there, possibly peaking
around 105F assuming dewpoints don`t mix out more than
anticipated. Elsewhere, dewpoints should mix out sufficiently to
result in heat indices near or even a hair lower than ambient air
temps.

The guidance most aggressive with convection along the front
tomorrow happens to be the models with the highest forecast
dewpoints. It is certainly possible that enough moisture could
pool just ahead of the front to support convection, but confidence
is not high and no changes were made to the going forecast pops
which are in the lower end of the chance range. Updated forecast
has been sent.

These updated high temps for tomorrow now put both Chicago and
Rockford potentially within reach of the daily record highs.

For June 21 the record highs are:

Chicago   101 (1988)
Rockford  100 (1988)

If Rockford or O`hare reach 100F tomorrow, it`d be the first time
since 2012 that either Chicago or Rockford reach 100F.

- Izzi

&&

 

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Here's a little prayer to mother nature for everybody in and around Chicago.

Mother Nature, who art around us

Respected be thy name

Give us this day our high of 100

And forgive us our whining

As we forgive those who whine around us

And lead us not to underachieving

But deliver us from 99

 

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

88 MDW and 86 ORD as of 10AM OBS.

Today should be closer to the 10/10 ‘rule’, so feel confident in my locked in call (100 MDW & 98 ORD).

it's going to 99 isn't it? The weenie prayer sealed it.

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I had some benchmark hourly temps for when Midway hit 100 on 6/14.  Some setups have more warming potential than others though so the numbers don't just automatically transfer over.  For this one, I'd really like to see 95 at ORD by 1 pm.  96 at that time would just about lock it in imo.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Here's a little prayer to mother nature for everybody in and around Chicago.

Mother Nature, who art around us

Respected be thy name

Give us this day our high of 100

And forgive us our whining

As we forgive those who whine around us

And lead us not to underachieving

But deliver us from 99

 

Think of all the elderly and poor that will suffer. Or not.

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Another 90 in Dayton. That's 5 this month, plus one 89F high temperature. Looks like a near certainty that there will be at least 3 more, and potentially as many as 5 more, by Sunday. That will bring the total to between 8 and 10 for June with several days remaining. Spartman must be thrilled.

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Another 90 in Dayton. That's 5 this month, plus one 89F high temperature. Looks like a near certainty that there will be at least 3 more, and potentially as many as 5 more, by Sunday. That will bring the total to between 8 and 10 for June with several days remaining. Spartman must be thrilled.

poor guy has nothing to complain about for once.
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I've been having a friendly back and forth with Gino (who bumped ORD and RFD to 100 with evening update yesterday) re. whether ORD would hit 100 today. I've been going with 99 since earlier this morning and feel decent with that call but 100 is definitely still in play. Personally rooting for it to happen because 100 has become one of the unicorn temperature extremes in my time here (almost 12 years now), with it not happening since the legendary 2012 summer.

Here's what I had as of like 8 or 9am today:
MDW: 101
ORD: 99
RFD: 99

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I've been having a friendly back and forth with Gino (who bumped ORD and RFD to 100 with evening update yesterday) re. whether ORD would hit 100 today. I've been going with 99 since earlier this morning and feel decent with that call but 100 is definitely still in play. Personally rooting for it to happen because 100 has become one of the unicorn temperature extremes in my time here (almost 12 years now), with it not happening since the legendary 2012 summer.

Here's what I had as of like 8 or 9am today:
MDW: 101
ORD: 99
RFD: 99

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

I feel like it comes down to either 99 or 100 at ORD.  I don't think it will be something else like 98 or 101.

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