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May 2022 General Discussion


Spartman
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I think this was the most gorgeous day out of the set, before the clouds and storms surrounded me by 3pm. Leaf out is complete, since the humidity rose there were more true spring scents that were missing til today. Just the right amount of wind. By noon which was the stunner there were the fluffy clouds covering the sky that I missed since last year. The way in which the forming clouds above covered the sun was like an eclipse. I heard thunder all afternoon into evening then the pulse glob finally reached me after 8pm.

Today also might have been the PMX's (the software used to generate TWN forecasts and displays data across Canada and the world) worst performing day by giving me not just totally wrong wx info for my location all day, but in fact absurd opposite trend data e.g. as my temp started falling it was showing it increasing! There was no bias that could account for the wrong data. I kept tabs on the hourly and it was flip-flopping all afternoon. To be fair the CAMs got pretty much everything wrong from an timing perspective - I checked 5. The finisher was just as I'm getting my downpour after being surrounded by storms all afternoon, it shows just overcast :facepalm: This is worse than useless. I'm in total amazement just how wretched it is!!

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The dewpoints crashed from above 70 yesterday afternoon into the low 40s this afternoon.  87 was the high both yesterday and today, so no temperature change.  Just went from tropical warmth to semi-arid warmth.  It seems like the mid-Michigan backdoor dryline is a new climate feature as of late.

They actually had it marked as a cold front coming in from the sun east but it was a dry line. So weird.


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LOT is significantly underplaying temps for late this week imo.  Given the mild start and progged temps aloft, I see little reason why Friday won't reach the upper 80s at least.  And no lake cooling will be had this time given relatively strong southwest flow, so brace yourself Alek.  :P

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

LOT is significantly underplaying temps for late this week imo.  Given the mild start and progged temps aloft, I see little reason why Friday won't reach the upper 80s at least.  And no lake cooling will be had this time given relatively strong southwest flow, so brace yourself Alek.  :P

The issue is the timing of the front and convection and/or debris ahead of it.  

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35 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

I'm sure we'll play it back

my thoughts exactly. or did you mean repeat or roll back the above average  days.or both? and I guess all that is probably true.

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A training t-storm event seems possible for SE Lower MI Friday night into Saturday.  The wind field is almost parallel to the front and instability will linger all night and into Saturday morning where the dewpoints are pooled up along the front.  The models all trended towards the front slowing down and stalling.

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At one point my 7 day showed a min of 23C/73F on Fri which if that happened would be one of the most insane temp anomalies I've ever had. Of course its not going to verify but just to show how cartoonish my forecasts are now:

xkeyr.png

My min from one day to the next has also never been that different AFAIK.

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Mid-upper 80s today, 70s tomorrow, and then a stretch of several days of 50s and 60s for highs.  After the long and cold stretch earlier this spring that would normally be kind of annoying, but after that 4-day stretch of intense heat I'm fairly okay with it.

upper 50s and low 60s with sun is great this time of year

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Even with some cooler/below average days coming up, my guess is that enough of a surplus was built up by the ridiculous anomalies of the past 7-10 days to allow the month to end up warmer than average for most.

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44 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Even with some cooler/below average days coming up, my guess is that enough of a surplus was built up by the ridiculous anomalies of the past 7-10 days to allow the month to end up warmer than average for most.

please don't go there.

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Stretch of chilly weather on tap for the next few days. Highs in the upper 40's - low 50's this weekend with low 30's (probably upper 20's for some) for the mornings. Frost advisories will be up through the weekend. With another 1/4" of rain yesterday, and the day before, we continue to have flooding up in the border country. Rainy River basin is very full, and lake/river levels are headed toward record breaking levels set back in 2014.

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