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Winter 2022-2023 Conjecture


40/70 Benchmark
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2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

December into early Jan still looks good... there's a legit signal for blocking, particularly in the NAO region

I do agree that it looks gross as we head into Feb though

Yup every met that is into LR forecasting is ratting Jan and Feb. So we’ve got to hope December maxes out snowfall wise . Nina’s blow in this new climate 

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup every met that is into LR forecasting is ratting Jan and Feb. So we’ve got to hope December maxes out snowfall wise . Nina’s blow in this new climate 

yeah I do think that the first couple weeks of Jan could be good snow wise if the blocking does come to fruition. after that Nina climo almost overwhelmingly takes over into Feb in the analogs

it's never a complete shutout up by you guys, but it definitely looks torchy

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah I do think that the first couple weeks of Jan could be good snow wise if the blocking does come to fruition. after that Nina climo almost overwhelmingly takes over into Feb in the analogs

it's never a complete shutout up by you guys, but it definitely looks torchy

I’ve seen talk of Canada being cold .. but that happens most years. They can be frigid as they want .. with a negative PNA , stout SE ridge and + NAO which ninas feature .. all we have to hope for is an occasional EPO dump in SNE . NNE can do well in some Ninas 

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve seen talk of Canada being cold .. but that happens most years. They can be frigid as they want .. with a negative PNA , stout SE ridge and + NAO which ninas feature .. all we have to hope for is an occasional EPO dump in SNE . NNE can do well in some Ninas 

I wouldn’t be all too worried at this point. A normally negative PNA isn’t the kiss of death most times(last December was a raging/record one with a -NAO that ground everything to shit)..in fact we’ve had monster blizzards during them(Feb of 13).  
 

Don’t buy the hype in either direction at this early point.  Lots of things yet to reveal themselves this autumn. 

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13 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I never put any stock in those looks this far out….even when they look good.  Feb is 4 months from now…my god just flip a coin at this point/range. 

As we saw with past wintere

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12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve seen talk of Canada being cold .. but that happens most years. They can be frigid as they want .. with a negative PNA , stout SE ridge and + NAO which ninas feature .. all we have to hope for is an occasional EPO dump in SNE . NNE can do well in some Ninas 

Well, 2001 and 2011 are two prime examples of cool ENSO seasons in which is did not happen....2005, as well, to a lesser extent. You can have the PAC jet wipe Canada clean of anomalous cold.

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah just commenting verbatim. I have no idea what to expect. 

I feel like a have a pretty good idea in the aggregate....my sequencing may be off again, like last year. But I don't see any reason at all to think a ratter is en route, nor a blockbuster....although I think there is a greater shot at the latter.

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We’re getting somekind of winter expression before the end of this very month it would more than merely seem. With say …, 60/40 or 40/60 of the GEFs EPS blend, respectively, would be unavoidable - we either snow and/or meaningfully load supportive whether the former actually takes place or not.

Am aware the +AO but qualitative circumstance isn’t that clean nor simple. The hemisphere has been trying to enter the AA phase structure, during what appears to be an usually early and massive +PNA …(those indexes can become resonant in some cases) an aspect I’ve been seeing in the super synopsis, albeit vague/vestigial, since mid Sept …now it’s getting harder to ignore, in fact it’s actually coherent at this point. So I feel it’s time to mention. 

It’s  not unprecedented and it’s no reach to assess snow plausibilities in Octobers… Particularly since 2000, the quantitative consideration has been proven relevant. Presently in the techniques, and the guidance envelope those are based upon … this is the most impressive early detection/expression for this autumn folding hemisphere phenomenon I’ve seen sine the era of October snow began - we’ll see where this goes without making any promises.

Without it in the air … snow recreational industries may get a head start …

This may also be gradient loaded with oscillatory behavior between transient near Indian Summer swaths replaced by rather -anomalous 850s relative to date

The greater anomaly behavior being in the deltas.  One of those loads probably favors eventually catching tweener disturbance in the open for snow hats on the pumpkin potential.  
 

airs of 1995 in the general abstraction 

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37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We’re getting somekind of winter expression before the end of this very month it would more than merely seem. With say …, 60/40 or 40/60 of the GEFs EPS blend, respectively, would be unavoidable - we either snow and/or meaningfully load supportive whether the former actually takes place or not. It either snows either in air, or qualitatively can …

Am aware the +AO but qualitative circumstance isn’t that clean nor simple. The hemisphere has been trying to enter the AA phase structure, during what appears to be an usually early and massive +PNA …(those indexes can become resonant in some cases) an aspect I’ve been seeing in the super synopsis, albeit vague/vestigial, since mid Sept …now it’s getting harder to ignore, in fact it’s actually coherent at this point. So I feel it’s time to mention. 

It’s  not unprecedented and it’s no reach to assess snow plausibilities in Octobers… Particularly since 2000, the quantitative consideration has been proven relevant. Presently in the techniques, and the guidance envelope those are based upon … this is the most impressive early detection/expression for this autumn folding hemisphere phenomenon I’ve seen sine the era of October snow began - we’ll see where this goes without making any promises.

Without it in the air … snow recreational industries may get a head start …

This may also be gradient loaded with oscillatory behavior between transient near Indian Summer swaths replaced by rather -anomalous 850s relative to date

The greater anomaly behavior being in the deltas.  One of those loads probably favors eventually catching tweener disturbance in the open for snow hats on the pumpkin potential.  
 

airs of 1995 in the general abstraction 

Cosgrove, without explicitly mentioning the year (I did it for him in a half-joking way, and he laughed) has been basically hedging 1995. I mean, his passages have been a clinic in how to tell me you are thinking 1995 without telling me that you're thinking 1995-

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This la nina is just about a lock to be a hybrid event.....which means its likely to have mixed characteristics of east and west based la ninas....you can see on the model simulations, the residual anomalies decay slowest between about 120 and 150* longitude....hallmark of a basin-wide, hybrid deal.

This is entirely consistent with my blog-musings earlier this summer (July) regarding the ongoing subsurface dynamics.

 

State of Subsurface Implies Continuation of Basin Wide Event

Currently la nina remains in a basin wide state, with the strongest anomalies focused west-central region of 3.4.
 
AVvXsEjRcDxgfJysPrECRfBU_vspTH8kKzFGJCUv
 
Back in June, la nina appeared rather stagnant given that the subsurface cold pool was rather meager, save for the extreme eastern region of 1.2. 
 
AVvXsEgud62YZURFzKgt9tEQB21TfSETifSN2u1G

This is important because the Walker Cycle dictates that line nina is fueled up the upwelling of cooler subsurface water to the surface by easterly trade winds. 
Note that throughout July and August, region 4 and the western half of region 3.4 to approximately 140 degrees longitude have been engulfed by easterly trade winds (denoted by blue in the graphic below), which is forecast to continue through the duration of August.
 
AVvXsEhMaRK4ld-RBWRfVFgqvwrdlG5Uf0tFdAUq
 
This is important because simultaneously the subsurface cold pool has been intensifying and tracking westward, thorough most or region 3.4. 
 
AVvXsEimqziKE4qA8vnEJtOOQmE8itoqaZ3HTY9I
 
Thus the most likely area for continued cooling over the next one to two weeks is the central portion of 3.4, at the nexus of the subsurface cold pool and easterly trades. Further to the east, across regions 3 and 1.2, the easterly trades have yet to penetrate, thus there is no mechanism to upwell the cooler subsurface. And across the western flank, within region 4, there exists subsurface warmth. However, the surfacing of positive anomalies is not imminent given the considerable depth at which they are present beneath region 3.4. Thus expectation for the foreseeable future is that this event will continue to remain basin-wide with a central focus on region 3.4.
This maintenance of a basin-wide appeal with a central focus is supported by most guidance at present:
 
NCEP:
 
AVvXsEgOspe_pEfXoJsN6cySaTq0F-RmhuxToJP6

 
EURO:
 
AVvXsEjnAR50Tr-kDVOCfgnbegT76JiA6ULodnjq

CMC:
 
AVvXsEjZobK0IiZFjpUxRbPo-rwAaIqmEnUBsRix
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18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was very relieved to see that because some of what I am looking at implies a relatively dry season. I think we will see some boring periods, which may coincide with the coldest stretches...this is why a blockbuster probably won't happen.

I don't either....just a long as we don't go weeks with no chance of anything. Those stretches are just downright painful.

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26 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I'm not sure the informational relevance of Siberian snow cover anymore, but September snow cover was largely above average across Siberia

 

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_vis.php?ui_year=2022&ui_month=9&ui_set=2

Yea, its off to a good start, but lets see where we are at near the end of October.

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34 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

I don't remember, is that indicator a find of Cohen's?

It is.  Its the Snow Advance Index.  The problem with it is there is no correlation to anything in terms of winter afaik.  Its was the speed of the snow advance or something like that meant something supposedly.  Not exactly sure.  

The concept makes sense at a glance so seems plausible but doesn't appear to have any skill.  
 

 

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