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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2022 OBS Thread


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47 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Well, I guess I'll be testing out the car and house A/C starting tomorrow through Sunday, really testing it out Saturday. Hopefully we're rewarded Sunday w/some boomers...

64F/DP 58F/partly sunny

timing and position of the front looks poor at the moment. Best forcing comes through late night and most models dissipate convection as it reaches the area. GFS has a shortwave come through monday afternoon though that may spark some storms. 

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My latest stats were a final Tues. high of 80, a low of 52 and high of 73 yesterday, and a rainy low of 55 this morning that netted me 0.79".  Sun didn't come out until this afternoon and the temp did eventually start to recover after being in 50s/60s all morning.

Looks like my high is in the books at 76 today and it's currently sunny and 74 with a dp that did kick up today with that rain, and is sitting at 65.

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Heat Advisory has been issued for parts of the area (first of the season and calendar year) -

Quote

Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
315 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022

DEZ001-NJZ008>010-012-013-015-017>020-027-PAZ070-071-101>106-
202015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.HT.Y.0001.220521T1500Z-220522T0200Z/
New Castle-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Morristown, Flemington,
Somerville, New Brunswick, Freehold, Trenton, Glassboro, Camden,
Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson,
Wharton State Forest, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford,
West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
315 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 100 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania and
  northern Delaware.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
  illnesses to occur.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Another Heat Advisory may be needed for
  portions of the area on Sunday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out
of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young
children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles
under any circumstances.

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When
possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or
evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat
stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational
Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent
rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone
overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location.
Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

JEO

 

20220520-nws-heatadv-phi-heatadv-densefogadv-phiarea.PNG

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Heat Advisory has been issued for parts of the area (first of the season and calendar year) -

 

20220520-nws-heatadv-phi-heatadv-densefogadv-phiarea.PNG

Interestingly (to me), my first recorded 90°F+ day last year was May 23rd where my back yard hit 91.9. So while I certainly was not expecting to see 90's in the weekend forecast earlier this week, I guess it's not a significant outlier. Oh well, time to test the AC again.

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32 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I think there's 2 batches w/the 2nd being more severe this afternoon.

1st

1st.jpg

Yup, that's what it looks like. Quite the impressive MSC incoming. It's supposed to get pretty warm today, I wonder if we won't see that thing gaining strength throughout the day.

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6 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Yup, that's what it looks like. Quite the impressive MSC incoming. It's supposed to get pretty warm today, I wonder if we won't see that thing gaining strength throughout the day.

SPC just bumped tornado probs to 5% and expanded the slight risk. We have a warm front draped just north of the region, with an approaching potent MCV... boy it *could* be quite the severe weather day. Possible supercells and a bow-echo will be the main storm modes 

day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

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5 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Yup, that's what it looks like. Quite the impressive MSC incoming. It's supposed to get pretty warm today, I wonder if we won't see that thing gaining strength throughout the day.

Yeah, there's a gap after the 1st which we'll probably see some sun to ignite things for the 2nd ...wait and see I guess.

Gap.jpg

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Might mean nuttin', might mean sumptin', but the 12z NAM and current HRRR are initiating those storms in wester PA, MD and WV a little further north and weaker than the current radar indicates. (Yes, radar hallucination aren't just for winter.)

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Tornado Watch issued -

Quote

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2022

TORNADO WATCH 251 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-009-011-013-017-025-027-029-037-041-043-045-055-057-061-
067-069-071-075-077-079-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-107-
109-119-133-202300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0251.220520T1535Z-220520T2300Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BEDFORD             BERKS
BLAIR                BUCKS               CARBON
CENTRE               CHESTER             COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND           DAUPHIN             DELAWARE
FRANKLIN             FULTON              HUNTINGDON
JUNIATA              LACKAWANNA          LANCASTER
LEBANON              LEHIGH              LUZERNE
MIFFLIN              MONROE              MONTGOMERY
MONTOUR              NORTHAMPTON         NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY                PHILADELPHIA        PIKE
SCHUYLKILL           SNYDER              UNION
YORK
$$

 

 

WPC SWDY1 shifted the "Slight Risk" to the east over much of the CWA now -

 

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26 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Might mean nuttin', might mean sumptin', but the 12z NAM and current HRRR are initiating those storms in wester PA, MD and WV a little further north and weaker than the current radar indicates. (Yes, radar hallucination aren't just for winter.)

Never knock the hallucinations they proved accurate earlier in the week and agree current radar looks more bullish 

* 3k NAM was out on a lunch picnic based on current radar

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16 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Shower in progress and radar is exploding over Berks - wet day 

Boy howdy. I just went for a little jaunt in my new car, came back and found out that it will fit in my garage even though the garage is full of projects. Then it started downpouring. Not seeing any rotation in the velocity scan though, but there are hints of hail in the regular returns.

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