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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.


John1122
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11 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Pretty strong MJO signal into the early parts of June  into the WH/Africa along with a CCKW,should be a good shot to see some TG flaring up into the GOM,Caribbean possibly ,during this time

Tropical-Monitoring-North-Carolina-Institute-for-Climate-Studies (2).png

Yep. Been watching that too. May offset any attempt at a hot/dry early Summer. Still have concerns of hot and dry mid summer on. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

HOT!!!  I have been in coastal Oregon and the transition back to TN is HOT!!!  I did get to experience a humid couple of days there as the atmospheric river paid a late season visit to the Pacific Northwest.  I also got to experience a gale along the coast.  So awesome.  Looks like the heat here will moderate by the last 10 days of June - HOPE SO!

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Welcome home! Your Oregon Coast gale might beat my Kansas shelf cloud this year. Now back to hot humid life in Tenn.

Next week looks like the SER tries to reload, even if under a passing GL to Northeast trough. Been a while since we've got sustained SER in summer tbh.

Maybe week 3 will be more sane. Models want to retrograde the Midwest ridge. Even if week 4 is back to AN temps, it has a more spread out feel vs concentrated ridge. Think positive, or at least less crazy heat.

How long until college football? LOL!

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Been spoiled the last couple years,we haven't seen a heat wave like this in quite awhile.Yard was beautiful a couple weeks ago, not no mo.After the CF passes this week end,looks the same next week.Weird to say enjoy the lower 90's for a couple days,go outside when you can..lol

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56 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Been spoiled the last couple years,we haven't seen a heat wave like this in quite awhile.Yard was beautiful a couple weeks ago, not no mo.After the CF passes this week end,looks the same next week.Weird to say enjoy the lower 90's for a couple days,go outside when you can..lol

Yep.  Best my yard has ever looked.  Choice between paying for water or gas.  Gas wins. To think it’s only June.  We have 3 months of this & everything will be brown & fall fire season could be really bad.  Will be interesting if the grid can sustain in many parts of America.  I saw where NES was asking many to conserve & keep their thermostats on 78.   I also read where Australia is already having rolling blackouts.  Which they are entering winter.   

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Evidently my idea of moderation during the last ten days of June is....the upper 90s!   LOL.  Really strong work on my part.  

I  agree with Jeff's comment about the heat looking more spread out.  But man, the adjustment from running in the mid 60s in Oregon to running in the mid 90s is BRUTAL!  We were pretty acclimated when we left, but having to start over now.  Yesterday was truly awful.  Some of us ran in the morning.  It was 80 degrees and 82% humidity.  It was like running in a sauna.  The afternoon was worse.  I am pretty sure the real feel on my phone wx app is too jacked up.  It was 106.  NWS had us at 99 for the real feel.  To quote Talladega Nights, "I'm on fire!"

Oregon was a blast.  We did the area from Coos Bay southward to the Redwoods.  We worked out of one town in the middle of those.  Wx Dad dropped the ball on a side trip.  We rolled out of Eugene on day one and headed to Crater Lake prior to shipping over to the coast.  The Cascades were awesome - just huge trees.  That is every bit Bigfoot country.  One of mine has studied CL and is a huge fan!  So we were all excited.  Got there, and it started raining.  And the entire crater was fogged in!!!!  I should have known better.  Still it was something to behold to see the 5-7' snow fields near the rim.  Some of the buildings were still covered to the second floor.  They get ~550" of snow seasonally.  I had to look that up to make sure I wasn't losing my mind.  Anyway, we headed for the coast.  We got to the place we were renting that night and there were 35+mph winds sustained.  Gale advisories were posted.  I have no idea what they were gusting to, but the winds were shaking the house.  You could hear the ocean rumbling.  It was awesome sleeping with the wind whistling through the windows, rain pelting the glass, and the roar of the ocean outside.  If you remember the scene in Harry Potter (Sorcerer's Stone) where Harry is taken to the island by the Dursley's and Hagrid shows up - that kind of wx.  Next morning, we woke up and it was over.  The winds did return later in the trip as the atmospheric river event unfolded(that same event eventually caused the flooding in Yellowstone).  We had those big waves where the wind was whipping the spray off the crest.  Last couple of days we went to the NCAA Track and Field Championships at Hayward - bucket list right there.  The Vols finished 3rd in the country on the men's side(best finish since 2022).  We rain on Pre's Trail for 3 days during the trip.  On big dude came rolling by in his Oregon gear(and I mean rolling).  We quickly looked him up on Google.   Pretty sure he was the collegiate record holder in the mile.  LOL.  We ate a lot of good food.  

This was our first real vacation since the pandemic.  Evidently, one of our kids didn't get properly checked-in on the flight from San Fran to Eugene.  That slight error would cause cascading issues on the return home.  On the plus side, we did get to meet every, single family who boarded the plane (as we stood and waited for the ticket issue to get cleared up...)....not once but twice.  But I can't complain, we made both connection and our luggage showed up on time.  

TN wx while we were gone was outstanding.  The heat hammer dropped as our return flight touched down in Atlanta.  Time to take the coats off and turn the A/C up to full.  I don't know how the Atlanta guys do traffic there every day BTW.  I get irritated if I don't make it through downtown Kingsport in two lights(Kingsport folks know what I am talking about).  

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Unfortunately the heat this week will be more South concentrated than I imagined last week. Humidity will be lower, but temps higher. Combo probably still is lower heat indices than last week.

Good ol' Southern tricky front ushers in beautiful high press a few days; then, upper ridge builds back over and hot! Looks like AQ advisories for some metros. If it's not humidity it's haze.

Global wind and some MJO forecasts hint at the ridge migrating West in July. However with normal temps rising, and slightly AN forecast, sensible weather may not ease up much.

Also the stubborn PNA and ABNA which want to stay about where they are. Perhaps those more specific forecasts will be less accurate than the GW and MJO.

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7 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

The feared heat and drought conditions I suspected would probably arrive in June has unfortunately came to fruition. So far only 0.91" Rainfall has been measured this Month at my Home. 

      

       

Got back from Oregon 12 days ago.  Not a drop since we have been back.  Everything is getting pretty much fried in this area.  So little rain.

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Looks like the eastern ridge complex will be sent westward for a couple of weeks minimum.  With it being a diminishing Nina, still have to think a very extended summer is in order.  I will GLADLY enjoy being wrong if it isn't.  Either way, the upper 80s for real feel are better than 105F

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17 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like the eastern ridge complex will be sent westward for a couple of weeks minimum.  With it being a diminishing Nina, still have to think a very extended summer is in order.  I will GLADLY enjoy being wrong if it isn't.  Either way, the upper 80s for real feel are better than 105F

Lol seems like we get an extended summer every year so what's new. Last year we literally didn't get cold until January...

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10 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Lol seems like we get an extended summer every year so what's new. Last year we literally didn't get cold until January...

Last December was just ridiculous, but November here was BN.  The year prior, December 2020 was BN.  Usually if we have La Nino one or both of those months fall below normal at TRI.  Our last two winter seasons started early, but quickly moderated to AN as La Nina just went bonkers.  

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10 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Lol seems like we get an extended summer every year so what's new. Last year we literally didn't get cold until January...

December 2020 was a snowy month here.  First year La Nina.  November 2021 was ~3 BN at TRI last year.  Overall, I would say middle and west TN won't complain about the last two winters - STELLAR!   NE TN and the the Apps have gotten the screw job for sure.  Again, La Nina is a pain here though I do think I like weak La Nina's as there is more to track on this side of the Apps.  It is abysmal on your side quite often.  

Of note, and @John1122can answer this better than I, Decembers seem to be a bit more snowier of late than they used to be, especially in the valley.  It used to never snow here prior to Christmas.  It has not been uncommon of late.  Seems like winters tend to start a bit earlier and end earlier. 

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7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

December 2020 was a snowy month here.  First year La Nina.  November 2021 was ~3 BN at TRI last year.  Overall, I would say middle and west TN won't complain about the last two winters - STELLAR!   NE TN and the the Apps have gotten the screw job for sure.  Again, La Nina is a pain here though I do think I like weak La Nina's as there is more to track on this side of the Apps.  It is abysmal on your side quite often.  

Of note, and @John1122can answer this better than I, Decembers seem to be a bit more snowier of late than they used to be, especially in the valley.  It used to never snow here prior to Christmas.  It has not been uncommon of late.  Seems like winters tend to start a bit earlier and end earlier. 

Yeah but I can remember we used to get snows in and around Halloween here several years and it snowed several times around Thanksgiving or the very first of December.  This being 70 plus well into December is not an early Winter. Getting one snow then hitting record highs doesn't cut it. On this side of the mountain we hit several record highs by several degrees last December.  Our climate has warmed and has become less snowy around here. That is a fact that shows in the data and no im not being a debbie downer but just looking at the statistical numbers. You can clearly see we are warming. Last January was an absolute gift for around here even though we went right back to above normal in February.  I'd like to see more consistency but our climate is changing and the norms are not the norms anymore. 

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3 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah but I can remember we used to get snows in and around Halloween here several years and it snowed several times around Thanksgiving or the very first of December.  This being 70 plus well into December is not an early Winter. Getting one snow then hitting record highs doesn't cut it. On this side of the mountain we hit several record highs by several degrees last December.  Our climate has warmed and has become less snowy around here. That is a fact that shows in the data and no im not being a debbie downer but just looking at the statistical numbers. You can clearly see we are warming. Last January was an absolute gift for around here even though we went right back to above normal in February.  I'd like to see more consistency but our climate is changing and the norms are not the norms anymore. 

Yeah, I had zero idea our discussion was headed in the direction of climate change.  As a generality, we have kept those conversations on the Climate Change forum.   I am not having the discussion with you nor will I be preached to about it.  I am merely stating that we have had more big snows in recent years IMBY (on this side of the Apps) during November/December than when I was growing up.  I noted the mountains were different.   Honestly, I would go back and give you dates/accumulations from those storms, but I don't think that is the discussion you were looking for.  For me this discussion is over.   I don't appreciate getting baited into this type of discussion.  Besides, this is the spring/summer long range discussion anyway.  

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7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, I had zero idea our discussion was headed in the direction of climate change.  As a generality, we have kept those conversations on the Climate Change forum.   I am not having the discussion with you nor will I be preached to about it.  I am merely stating that we have had more big snows in recent years IMBY (on this side of the Apps) during November/December than when I was growing up.  I noted the mountains were different.   Honestly, I would go back and give you dates/accumulations from those storms, but I don't think that is the discussion you were looking for.  For me this discussion is over.   I don't appreciate getting baited into this type of discussion.  Besides, this is the spring/summer long range discussion anyway.  

By no means am I trying to be preachy or be course with you. Actually I respect the hell out of you as a poster and value your input.  So ill leave it at that.

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On 6/26/2022 at 5:52 PM, Carvers Gap said:

First measurable rainfall IMBY in roughly eighteen days.  Tied for the driest my yard has ever been until today.  Finally, some showers today.  It is not nearly enough, but we will take anything at this point.

Wound up with 0.85" from the weekend system. Big help but, as you said, not nearly enough. At this juncture, I'm hoping for some tropical influence soon . I still am concerned for overall continued dryness possibly leading to drought conditions late Summer. 

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6 hours ago, Met1985 said:

By no means am I trying to be preachy or be course with you. Actually I respect the hell out of you as a poster and value your input.  So ill leave it at that.

Same here, Met.  Much respect for you as well.  We are cool!

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4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Wound up with 0.85" from the weekend system. Big help but, as you said, not nearly enough. At this juncture, I'm hoping for some tropical influence soon . I still am concerned for overall continued dryness possibly leading to drought conditions late Summer. 

Yeah, the rainfall which we received here is basically used up.  Nina summers are the worst.  I hold out hope that the ridge will hold out west through August.  When it comes eastward again, it is gonna get HOT again!

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15 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, the rainfall which we received here is basically used up.  Nina summers are the worst.  I hold out hope that the ridge will hold out west through August.  When it comes eastward again, it is gonna get HOT again!

Right with you man ! 

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We will cross our fingers and hope this doesn't come to pass, but the ingredients are beginning to come together for a whopper of a heat weave around mid-July.  The position of hp is in an optimal position for a classic heat wave over the SE late in those runs.  The 6z GFS, while certainly at range, is an extreme event after 300.  The GEFS and GEPS have been hinting for the past few runs that heat will build into the Plains, and then work eastward.  We WANT the EPS to be right.  

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On 7/1/2022 at 4:00 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Keep that heat on the GFS in Texas!!! If that comes eastward, we are gonna bake.  Wowza at the 12z.  They are almost out of colors.

Looks like the heat is trying to be in this area for a few days this coming week.  I will be at beach so hoping no rain & a clean blue ocean.  

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