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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


Sandstorm94
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28 minutes ago, chris624wx said:

Not sure if it means much but AKQ had Norfolk getting into the mid 40s today for a high. We've been in the upper 30s/low 40s all day so far.  

They progged us to get up to 50 but it didn't happen here either, capped at 45ish and down to 42 now. Hoping we might get down to wet bulb sooner as a result.

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1 minute ago, PantherJustin said:

Ok …. Greater chance of occurring…. Someone gets 3-6” in this Mystery band none of us can see, or NC State “Upsets” (If you wanna call it that) UNC Tomm in the Dean Dome while they honor Ole Roy?

Also honoring the 82 championship team. MJ, Worthy, and Perkins will be in the house. 

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2 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Ok …. Greater chance of occurring…. Someone gets 3-6” in this Mystery band none of us can see, or NC State “Upsets” (If you wanna call it that) UNC Tomm in the Dean Dome while they honor Ole Roy?… or Option 3 I just lose everything this weekend :lol:

lol, option 3

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6 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Ok …. Greater chance of occurring…. Someone gets 3-6” in this Mystery band none of us can see, or NC State “Upsets” (If you wanna call it that) UNC Tomm in the Dean Dome while they honor Ole Roy?… or Option 3 I just lose everything this weekend :lol:

If Roy is in the building State loses. Been that way for over 15 years now. 

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6 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Ok …. Greater chance of occurring…. Someone gets 3-6” in this Mystery band none of us can see, or NC State “Upsets” (If you wanna call it that) UNC Tomm in the Dean Dome while they honor Ole Roy?… or Option 3 I just lose everything this weekend :lol:

We win :)

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12 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Ok …. Greater chance of occurring…. Someone gets 3-6” in this Mystery band none of us can see, or NC State “Upsets” (If you wanna call it that) UNC Tomm in the Dean Dome while they honor Ole Roy?… or Option 3 I just lose everything this weekend :lol:

The real longshot is the players attending real classes ;-)

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Forecast Temps here on the Coast, Busted.. 5 Degrees Lower than Modeled..

It got too 45F Today..

 

Onset of Precip Is (alot) Earlier than expected, (Was 10 PM or so)..

 

Temp(s) have now fallen too 42F with light Rain in My Forecast area(s).. Light rain right now..

 

NWS Local Office Disco has mentioned Thunder snow being Possible,, (Locally).. 

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RAH says sorry folks 

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Friday...

...Winter Weather Advisory for 1-2 inches of remains in effect
Tonight through Early Saturday for All of Central NC...

Little overall change to the forecast, with the main updates being
slightly lower snowfall amounts.

The mid-level trough is currently situated over southern IL and
western KY. This trough will track southeast in the southeast US
tonight, with tremendous height falls overspreading central NC. The
trough will close off and move off the New England coast by Saturday
morning. At the surface, current analysis shows a 1032 mb high
pressure over northwest MO. There is a weak surface low over north-
central KY tied to the upper-trough. The developing offshore low is
roughly 1008 mb off the southeast coast as noted in satellite
imagery. Latest radar trends show some echoes over the southern and
northwest Piedmont, however very little of this is reaching the
ground. The 18Z GSO sounding still showed considerable dry air below
700 mb and this should be the case until the column saturates as the
mid-level trough moves over the area during and after 00Z. Rain
showers have taken shape along the NC coast. Outside of some light
rain over the far eastern Coastal Plain, this activity should
continue to push east with the eastward progression of the system.

As the mid-level trough dives southeast and off the coast tonight
into tomorrow, trough will take on a negative tilt, further adding
to the strong dynamic forcing. Lift centered around the 290K
isentropic surface will favor a band of precipitation over the
northwest Piedmont that will track east-southeast through the
overnight into early Saturday morning. The 12Z forecast soundings
from the NAM/GFS indicate that only a short period of rain would be
warranted, as the column quickly saturates and, along with dynamic
cooling, reaches the wet-bulb zero temperature at the surface as the
trough moves through. Thus, the forecast continues the trend of
little in the way of rain and mostly a snow event. The latest
snowfall totals show a swath of 1-2 inches over the western
Piedmont, mainly west of US-1, and generally an inch or less east of
US-1 over the Coastal Plain. This is roughly in line with latest
high-resolution HRRR/NAM-NEST, which continues to favor higher
totals closer to the Triad. Still can`t rule out some areas that
could see up to 3 inches, especially where isolated heavier snow
bands develop with the strong forcing.

Temperatures tonight will drop down into the lower 20s over the
Triad to the lower 30s over the south and east. Gusty winds will
develop overnight as the coastal low deepens as it tracks off the
New England Coast by early Saturday. Northwest winds will become
sustained between 10-15 with gusts of 20 to 35 mph, producing wind
chills in the single digits to teens.
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4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

RAH says sorry folks 

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Friday...

...Winter Weather Advisory for 1-2 inches of remains in effect
Tonight through Early Saturday for All of Central NC...

Little overall change to the forecast, with the main updates being
slightly lower snowfall amounts.

The mid-level trough is currently situated over southern IL and
western KY. This trough will track southeast in the southeast US
tonight, with tremendous height falls overspreading central NC. The
trough will close off and move off the New England coast by Saturday
morning. At the surface, current analysis shows a 1032 mb high
pressure over northwest MO. There is a weak surface low over north-
central KY tied to the upper-trough. The developing offshore low is
roughly 1008 mb off the southeast coast as noted in satellite
imagery. Latest radar trends show some echoes over the southern and
northwest Piedmont, however very little of this is reaching the
ground. The 18Z GSO sounding still showed considerable dry air below
700 mb and this should be the case until the column saturates as the
mid-level trough moves over the area during and after 00Z. Rain
showers have taken shape along the NC coast. Outside of some light
rain over the far eastern Coastal Plain, this activity should
continue to push east with the eastward progression of the system.

As the mid-level trough dives southeast and off the coast tonight
into tomorrow, trough will take on a negative tilt, further adding
to the strong dynamic forcing. Lift centered around the 290K
isentropic surface will favor a band of precipitation over the
northwest Piedmont that will track east-southeast through the
overnight into early Saturday morning. The 12Z forecast soundings
from the NAM/GFS indicate that only a short period of rain would be
warranted, as the column quickly saturates and, along with dynamic
cooling, reaches the wet-bulb zero temperature at the surface as the
trough moves through. Thus, the forecast continues the trend of
little in the way of rain and mostly a snow event. The latest
snowfall totals show a swath of 1-2 inches over the western
Piedmont, mainly west of US-1, and generally an inch or less east of
US-1 over the Coastal Plain. This is roughly in line with latest
high-resolution HRRR/NAM-NEST, which continues to favor higher
totals closer to the Triad. Still can`t rule out some areas that
could see up to 3 inches, especially where isolated heavier snow
bands develop with the strong forcing.

Temperatures tonight will drop down into the lower 20s over the
Triad to the lower 30s over the south and east. Gusty winds will
develop overnight as the coastal low deepens as it tracks off the
New England Coast by early Saturday. Northwest winds will become
sustained between 10-15 with gusts of 20 to 35 mph, producing wind
chills in the single digits to teens.

[Quote] 

Latest radar trends show some echoes over the southern and
northwest Piedmont, however very little of this is reaching the
ground.[/q]

 

We (atmosphere),, is saturated here on the Coast, Light Rain falling ATM..

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