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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


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Models are really honing in on that lee-side swirl hammering foothills/piedmont. IIRC, it's been a long time where we've had that feature in a snow setup... but when we did it typically over-peforms and holds together further east than models show.  If I was in Central NC I  would be super excited about that feature right now.  And honestly it seems like you need to root for the more OTS solutions for the feature to gain steam.  It makes sense I  guess with the super strong N/W surface flow west of the apps... creates a nice little eddy on the lee side where things get going.  The more amped/closer to the coast solution have a more northerly flow(and lower pressure field in general towards the coast), and I  guess that's why they weren't as excited about this backside feature.

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2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Models are really honing in on that lee-side swirl hammering foothills/piedmont. IIRC, it's been a long time where we've had that feature in a snow setup... but when we did it typically over-peforms and holds together further east than models show.  If I was in Central NC I  would be super excited about that feature right now.  And honestly it seems like you need to root for the more OTS solutions for the feature to gain steam.  It makes sense I  guess with the super strong N/W surface flow west of the apps... creates a nice little eddy on the lee side where things get going.  The more amped/closer to the coast solution have a more northerly flow(and lower pressure field in general towards the coast), and I  guess that's why they weren't as excited about this backside feature.

Yea, if so that band looks better than the far west edge we had last Friday as far as duration and strength 

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Just another observation... it seems like the models that are really OTS and less-amped... are propagating the lee side band more in a Southeast direction... could lead to a surprise few inches in places like columbia and maybe all the way to the SC coast.  The middle of the road solutions propagate it more east towards the triangle,(but fizzle it out a bit as it gets there).  

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6 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Just another observation... it seems like the models that are really OTS and less-amped... are propagating the lee side band more in a Southeast direction... could lead to a surprise few inches in places like columbia and maybe all the way to the SC coast.  The middle of the road solutions propagate it more east towards the triangle,(but fizzle it out a bit as it gets there).  

These do tend to overperform when they develop but rarely do they make too Far East 

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11 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Models are really honing in on that lee-side swirl hammering foothills/piedmont. IIRC, it's been a long time where we've had that feature in a snow setup... but when we did it typically over-peforms and holds together further east than models show.  If I was in Central NC I  would be super excited about that feature right now.  And honestly it seems like you need to root for the more OTS solutions for the feature to gain steam.  It makes sense I  guess with the super strong N/W surface flow west of the apps... creates a nice little eddy on the lee side where things get going.  The more amped/closer to the coast solution have a more northerly flow(and lower pressure field in general towards the coast), and I  guess that's why they weren't as excited about this backside feature.

This is what can happen in an ideal leeside low situation 

snow.20030123.gif

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There's going to be some epic weenie runs on the hi-res models once we get inside 48hrs I think.  Both the 18z GFS(around charlotte) and 12z Ukmet(around greensboro) are showing isolated .6-1 inch liquid totals with the backside meso-low band... and those are coarse globals....

Hi-RES NAM was sexy at 60hrs too... It's got nearly 1/2 inch of liquid just north of Augusta, GA and still ripping... also another near 1/2 inch maxima east of hendersonville, NC and still ripping there too.

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

There's going to be some epic weenie runs on the hi-res models once we get inside 48hrs I think.  Both the 18z GFS(around charlotte) and 12z Ukmet(around greensboro) are showing isolated .6-1 inch liquid totals with the backside meso-low band... and those are coarse globals....

Hi-RES NAM was sexy at 60hrs too...

Could be a fine line of about 30-40 miles wide of a narrow band of 4-6" somewhere in the piedmont. 

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31 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

There's going to be some epic weenie runs on the hi-res models once we get inside 48hrs I think.  Both the 18z GFS(around charlotte) and 12z Ukmet(around greensboro) are showing isolated .6-1 inch liquid totals with the backside meso-low band... and those are coarse globals....

Hi-RES NAM was sexy at 60hrs too... It's got nearly 1/2 inch of liquid just north of Augusta, GA and still ripping... also another near 1/2 inch maxima east of hendersonville, NC and still ripping there too.

Ik it’s a different setup but wasn’t March 2009 just a backside Deform Band?

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11 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Ik it’s a different setup but wasn’t March 2009 just a backside Deform Band?

Yea, that wasn't a mesoscale feature though, lol. That was a mega bowling ball closed off upper level low. We won't have the upper level divergence like that one did. (We would have if the fantasy runs giving us 20-30 inches from several days ago were real)

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8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Not saying it will be in thus exact location but a decent band of snow could set up for a few hrs and deliver higher totals somewhere....Screenshot_20220126-183633_Chrome.jpg

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

Been MIA on vacation back home in Connecticut for the last week. What are we looking at 1-3” if we’re lucky? 

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