Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: Back end of the ensembles did improve some at 12z, for those looking for better news. I saw the CMC had a flatter look instead of a West Coast trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Here is another look at the teleconnections that @pasnownut posted above. There is general agreement between the GEFS & Euro ensemble as to the AO, NAO & EPO. Here is the AO for the next 15 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Here is the NAO on GEFS & Euro ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Here is the EPO on the GEFS & Euro ensemble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Hi guys. I have a question about weather stations. My parents want to buy me one for Christmas, but I really don't know what to recommend. I don't want to break the bank, but also don't want something super cheap. Any thoughts on this? It seems like many of you have one at your home. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Good morning! The 0z Canadian & 6z GFS both are showing a low near the NC/VA coast next Monday night into Tuesday am. The Euro is not onboard this run, but it has showed this storm on previous runs over the weekend. We might be just 1 week away from our first legit Winter threat to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Thursday looks to be the warmest day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 21 minutes ago, paweather said: Thursday looks to be the warmest day verbatim, yes it does. Saturday looks like boundary safely down to the MA and they can fight over whos in 40's and 60's. Seeing a threat inside 200hrs is nice and models are starting to latch on to some of what the tellies have been suggesting. Couple more runs like 6z's and we may be able to start parsing over Op runs for whos getting what. I'm fully prepared to be screwed way down here, but in mid december, I expect it, and smile for whatever I can scarf up while norther/westers cash in (and cashtown of course). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: verbatim, yes it does. Saturday looks like boundary safely down to the MA and they can fight over whos in 40's and 60's. Seeing a threat inside 200hrs is nice and models are starting to latch on to some of what the tellies have been suggesting. Couple more runs like 6z's and we may be able to start parsing over Op runs for whos getting what. I'm fully prepared to be screwed way down here, but in mid december, I expect it, and smile for whatever I can scarf up while norther/westers cash in (and cashtown of course). Agreed. Good stuff NUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 I got .09" of rain on Saturday and bottomed out at 24 last night. Should be a nice mild pleasant week ahead as we look for some changes in the pattern heading through Christmas week. Cheers to all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 hour ago, paweather said: Thursday looks to be the warmest day 57 minutes ago, pasnownut said: verbatim, yes it does. Saturday looks like boundary safely down to the MA and they can fight over whos in 40's and 60's. Seeing a threat inside 200hrs is nice and models are starting to latch on to some of what the tellies have been suggesting. Couple more runs like 6z's and we may be able to start parsing over Op runs for whos getting what. I'm fully prepared to be screwed way down here, but in mid december, I expect it, and smile for whatever I can scarf up while norther/westers cash in (and cashtown of course). showing mid 60s at my shanty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: showing mid 60s at my shanty. for thursday its shorts day for you (and trainer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: for thursday its shorts day for you (and trainer). absolutely. I'm sure there will be a driveway party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, sauss06 said: absolutely. I'm sure there will be a driveway party Hopefully the last day until spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, paweather said: Hopefully the last day until spring well, we do not discriminate. We have driveway parties in snow storms too. I start winter vacation on the 17th. so that potential event on the 20th is perfect timing. sign me up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, sauss06 said: absolutely. I'm sure there will be a driveway party Only curveball is backdoorish like antecedent cold that looks to press down east of apps Wed. IF that holds a little longer/stronger, then 60's might be a stretch. As we've seen all too often, warm often wins, so we'll see. Here is a pic of what I'm suggesting. Nooner NAM shows this as well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 hour ago, sauss06 said: showing mid 60s at my shanty. Boy, if MDT gets to 66 on Thursday that will be quite the warm surge. I would have thought 55-60. Some sneaky 50's possible each day it appears. Already 46-47 at MDT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 2m temps are still close here in the LSV. Friday has eeked up a bit in last 2-3 runs, so keep an eye as if the boundary doesnt get far enough south....I may pull shorts out as well. I'm planning on warmth and will be happy if we backdoor or get the boundary a little deeper till the reshuffle gets us back to normalish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Boy, if MDT gets to 66 on Thursday that will be quite the warm surge. I would have thought 55-60. Some sneaky 50's possible each day it appears. Already 46-47 at MDT. 2m temps are more supportive of your thoughts...as of now, but as suggested by trainer some time ago, GFS verifies warmer than modeled, so...dunno. I'm writing the week off as a loss and just getting on w/ it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 2m temps are more supportive of your thoughts...as of now, but as suggested by trainer some time ago, GFS verifies warmer than modeled, so...dunno. I'm writing the week off as a loss and just getting on w/ it. I agree next week much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 2m temps are more supportive of your thoughts...as of now, but as suggested by trainer some time ago, GFS verifies warmer than modeled, so...dunno. I'm writing the week off as a loss and just getting on w/ it. I agree, there is no winter weather this week. You may have alluded to it in your previous post, but next Saturday is a close call on MR models right now. Not much separation between 24 degrees. Track of the SLP easy to see in the GFS below. Hopefully the boundary pushes south from here for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I agree, there is no winter weather this week. You may have alluded to it in your previous post, but next Saturday is a close call on MR models right now. Not much separation between 24 degrees. GFS below. Hopefully the boundary pushes south from here for next week. Here is why I'm not as concerned for 40 northers. Cold is pressing as noted at 700/850's. While were only ankle deep attm....its still pressing and wind suggests we've lost some SW flow up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Not good for LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 and by late Saturday, here we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Not good for LSV patience grasshopper....that's miles and miles better than where we've been, and just getting a storm under us is a big step. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and by late Saturday, here we are. Its going to be tough for the 20th storm just doing a verbatim run down of the GFS. Need the air mass to press a bit more. Its in the mid 30's in N PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: patience grasshopper....that's miles and miles better than where we've been, and just getting a storm under us is a big step. I'm trying to stay patience but it is getting more difficult Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Boy, if MDT gets to 66 on Thursday that will be quite the warm surge. I would have thought 55-60. Some sneaky 50's possible each day it appears. Already 46-47 at MDT. Already up to 53 here! Gorgeous day out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Already up to 53 here! Gorgeous day out there. Yep going to be all week as Nut said I have given up this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: for any day above freezing its shorts day for trainer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now