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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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31 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Reading conflicting reports from our friends to the south. One poster near Charlotte said the event outperformed guidance overnight, someone from Richmond said what was to be about 3-4 hours of snow lasted less than 1 hour before the flip. 

Charlotte is much further inland than Richmond.

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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Bolded is an important point but not much to explain why Wxbell is higher than TT at the transition zone other than individual algorithms on each suite.  Wxbell is the only map I can find that has York City over 4" using 12Z GFS data.      Not saying Pivotal is right but Wxbell should not be higher than TT with the same data. 

Yea I”m not sure, could be a difference in whatever algorithms they use to generate the p-type too. Because WeatherBell’s winter conditional QPF are all separated now, there isn’t anything lumped with snow accumulation. 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Mt Joy gave a good wet bulb temp earlier.  I am hoping for 1-2 degree drop.  Its only 22 here still.  Holding pretty good.  

damn I never understood how sometimes with a very low dp precip starts almost right away other times its hours and hours of Virga

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Snow will arrive first in Franklin & Adams Co.'s around 2:30-3 p.m. & overspread Lancaster & Lebanon Co.'s btw. ~ 3:30 & 4:30 p.m. A changeover to sleet will occur from south-to-north across the Valley btw. ~ 8 & 10 p.m., with a transition to plain rain btw. ~ 11 p.m. & midnight.

- MU this afternoon

That would still be ~ 6 hours of snow with the depict.  even at 1/2" an hour, we are plus 3! 

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