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Upstate/Eastern New York- Jan 5-7 Lake Effect Snow Event


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15 minutes ago, sferic said:

Looking forward to 3-5 in Cicero tomorrow

News 5 has NW onondaga in the 6-12 range; don't know enough historically to say if that can translate 10 miles east across i81; we'll see

 

I am looking to see how it verifies low or high. Can't wait @TugHillMatt

 

I love seeing the 6 to 12 inches, but am very cautious. It could translate over to you if the wind is more WNW. Or it could totally miss me even if the winds are too NWly. Lake effect snow is soooo wishy washy because the slightest wind change can lead to a totally different place getting hit. You can see that with today's event around the Buffalo area.

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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

 

You guys are getting that because of what's left of the Low that went over the Upper Great Lakes. SW winds are flowing in from that.

I know why we are I just don’t ever recall seeing this sort of set up that I can remember. It’s not often there’s a low over Superior and another low sliding across PA to the coast at the same time with one producing SW flow lake effect and the other about to produce a snowstorm for Boston. Pretty cool to see even if I only have 1/2” OTG while 13 miles to my north has 20” lol .

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Just now, Buckeyes_Suck said:

We really need just a little stronger flow. I’d prob get to 30” tonight. 

I just realized something. I have sat down for the moment after rearranging some furniture and realized there’s a Sabres game, my dog is limping and my wife got her nails done…I am a weenie through and through…

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I’m back in the Roc, 200.2 miles today. It was certainly interesting and the second half of the day salvaged things.  North side of Buffalo got hit pretty good. Not a blockbuster day but no regrets. Probably the deepest and heaviest snow I’ll be in this year. 

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3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I’m back in the Roc, 200.2 miles today. It was certainly interesting and the second half of the day salvaged things.  North side of Buffalo got hit pretty good. Not a blockbuster day but no regrets. Probably the deepest and heaviest snow I’ll be in this year. 

Wait until you see the video I got of you driving into those drifts will be worth. :thumbsup:

Also was very nice meeting you! Got to meet up with 2 new posters here in the last few months!

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21 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Has anyone else ever seen a storm sliding through PA heading to the coast while still seeing a SW flow lake effect band? I can’t recall ever seeing one. 

Completely anomalous and fooled me. I had it all wrong. I still don’t understand where the southwest wind came from.   Weird wild stuff. 

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8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I just realized something. I have sat down for the moment after rearranging some furniture and realized there’s a Sabres game, my dog is limping and my wife got her nails done…I am a weenie through and through…

Yeah thats why there were so many cars downtown getting stuck, everyone was walking to arena as I was walking around.

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5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Waterfront is about to get into some really heavy stuff. I think right along the water gets heaviest totals which is very rare.

WUNIDS_map?num=6&type=N0Q&mapx=400&mapy=

Does the airport break its all time January single day record of 18.3” ? That would be pretty dang cool. At 15.0” as of 5pm so I think it’s gonna be close as you said the heaviest rates are closer to the lake not inland near the airport. 

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Glad most of the north town guys got to cash in today.  Cutoff on the south side was crazy.  Left work at Harlem Walden at 5 and had roughy 14” was hard finding a good spot to measure without drift impacts.  Depth seems like it held close to 12” at Harlem William but then just the short drive to the next intersection at Clinton and was under 6”.  Came home here to only 4.5” on the board but can’t complain when you can “chase” at work.  
- BW great shots downtown.  Wanted to do the same but just had no energy left after work.  

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8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Completely anomalous and fooled me. I had it all wrong. I still don’t understand where the southwest wind came from.   Weird wild stuff. 

I’ve been thinking about this too. When I saw the low position slide up to Quebec I thought no way the lake effect would make it to northern Erie County. I wonder if the warmer than normal lakes combined with that low not really strengthening as it moved away caused a perfect environment for something like a “Great Lakes Low” to form upstream from us. All that cold air flowing over the huge expanse of relatively warm lake water I imagine can create some unexpected air flows. 

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6 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Does the airport break its all time January single day record of 18.3” ? That would be pretty dang cool. At 15.0” as of 5pm so I think it’s gonna be close as you said the heaviest rates are closer to the lake not inland near the airport. 

Maybe. I’m getting about 1/2 an hour a few miles east of the airport. 

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9 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Does the airport break its all time January single day record of 18.3” ? That would be pretty dang cool. At 15.0” as of 5pm so I think it’s gonna be close as you said the heaviest rates are closer to the lake not inland near the airport. 

If they had 15” at 5pm I think they could make a run to 20”.  Watching the loop almost looks like it’s coming to a stop and making a small kink north again.  Think this locks in over downtown to airport for a few more hours.  Inland extent really seems to have taken a dump with the winds dying down.  Under some nice returns here but still only 1” hr rates.  This has certainly been an entertaining event to watch unfold!  

38DDA81A-A41D-4855-8EC0-48A362F648A2.jpeg

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9 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

I’ve been thinking about this too. When I saw the low position slide up to Quebec I thought no way the lake effect would make it to northern Erie County. I wonder if the warmer than normal lakes combined with that low not really strengthening as it moved away caused a perfect environment for something like a “Great Lakes Low” to form upstream from us. All that cold air flowing over the huge expanse of relatively warm lake water I imagine can create some unexpected air flows. 

I mean I was saying from day one this whole event seemed centered around a giant Great Lakes induced thermal trough, however I didn’t really believe it would be this strong or actually pan out.  

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51 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

I know why we are I just don’t ever recall seeing this sort of set up that I can remember. It’s not often there’s a low over Superior and another low sliding across PA to the coast at the same time with one producing SW flow lake effect and the other about to produce a snowstorm for Boston. Pretty cool to see even if I only have 1/2” OTG while 13 miles to my north has 20” lol .

It's actually super annoying, because it's what is preventing us from getting any good synoptic snows. That northern Jet isn't allowing anything to move north and the southern jet isn't allowing systems to push down from the north (like a clipper pattern). So we're stuck in this stupid in-between area where nothing goes. Lake effect is our only hope for the time being.

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21 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Anyone else seeing this over Huron?  I’ll snag a loop once it’s done but there is what I describe as a fully rotating meso sinking south.  Inflow feeder bands coming from every direction???

66EA8637-4F08-4D9C-BD00-A57CDCB404B8.jpeg

I think that feature is what causes the band to shift south overnight 

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32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This is probably my best forecasted les event. My text at 10 am yesterday morning with Devin. 

BD778684-FAAA-4D96-BCD8-31FB54A79A89.png

Can you guys have a similar discussion on who will jackpot in Central New York tomorrow? I can't wait to read this...

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27 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Anyone else seeing this over Huron?  I’ll snag a loop once it’s done but there is what I describe as a fully rotating meso sinking south.  Inflow feeder bands coming from every direction???

66EA8637-4F08-4D9C-BD00-A57CDCB404B8.jpeg

Meso low!!?!? Time to go Snow band a'chasin! Buffwx, got a boat?

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Can you guys have a similar discussion on who will jackpot in Central New York tomorrow? I can't wait to read this...

I'm not as good off Ontario as Erie. @wolfie09 is the expert off Ontario. NW flow LES is virtually impossible to predict and Rochester doesn't even have a radar. Good luck with that! :lol:

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49 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Does the airport break its all time January single day record of 18.3” ? That would be pretty dang cool. At 15.0” as of 5pm so I think it’s gonna be close as you said the heaviest rates are closer to the lake not inland near the airport. 

16.5” at 8pm… it will be close!  Band looks so good over the lake crazy it’s just drying out so fast once it’s over land.  

EFA6DD6B-E148-4FA7-BCB3-B57EAEB0E85F.jpeg

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