Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 IMO a NAMing incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Am in no way saying this is the same, but March 10, 1993 the high temp at TYS was 71° (everyone knows what followed)....learned the hard way what time of day/ rates can do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 0z NAM coming in hot. I so want to believe; however, I'll keep my expectations set to the ECMWF. Crazy how many local mets refuse to acknowledge the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Nam matched the HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Is snow depth product on NAM being lower because of it factoring in soil temperatures or snowfall ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Maybe John knows, but when was last time entire state had runs like the 0z is spitting out? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2022’s keyword - - - “amped” looking like a really fun night ahead tomorrow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: Maybe John knows, but when was last time entire state had runs like the 0z is spitting out? Straight from Pivotals site..each site uses a slightly different algorithm for depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Is snow depth product on NAM being lower because of it factoring in soil temperatures or snowfall ratio? Depth is estimated taking into account compacting, ground temps, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Feel free to correct if I don't have a good idea, but am curious to see how much of 5-6 inches of snow as modeled by NAM/HRRR would actually stick and accumulate. I'm expecting at most a dusting here in Sevier County. I don't have a great idea of how fast soil temperature falls with snow, etc. Overall, am hoping for a nice little event here and hopefully an appetizer for later this week. I've found it best to take those clown maps and shave off 40-60 percent for wet snows that aren't falling onto frozen ground. Sometimes you'll get over performance and they'll match up. You can snow board, clean it off and add the measurements up and you'll get closer to the clowns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, John1122 said: I've found it best to take those clown maps and shave off 40-60 percent for wet snows that aren't falling onto frozen ground. Sometimes you'll get over performance and they'll match up. You can snow board, clean it off and add the measurements up and you'll get closer to the clowns. 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: Depth is estimated taking into account compacting, ground temps, etc. 5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Straight from Pivotals site..each site uses a slightly different algorithm for depth Appreciate this, ground temperatures and snow has always been confusing to me, am really hoping for at least a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Worth mentioning that dendrite growth is just as important as temperatures. This could be a situation where we get those monster palm diameter clumps of snow falling. Those accumulate quickly even in warmer temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Maybe John knows, but when was last time entire state had runs like the 0z is spitting out? Its rare to see NW Tennessee and NE Tennessee included in a snow cover map. It's slightly more common to see Memphis and Bristol with snow from a clown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 I just want to make sure that y’all know that my soil temp post earlier was in no way meant to suggest that accumulation would be more or less. I saw that some folks on southernwx were bringing soil temps up, so I thought “hmmmm I wonder what those look like here in Morgan county.” I checked it out and saw that they were quite variable depending on the boundary layer and was impressed at how quickly they could lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 @John1122and @dwagner88both make valid points. Honestly, there's accurate enough algo to determine what will actually stick. If I was forced to make a call (barring a meltdown with the rest of the 0z suite and 6z), I would say 1"-3" for the valley, 2"-4" for the rim of the foothills, and name your number for the mountains. But thats why I don't get paid to make calls too lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 A decent amount of cold rain or extended period of ice pellets will cool top soil layer and allow for easier accumulation. Nov. 12, 2019 is a good example of heavy rates overcoming warm ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 All good points, I have seen very heavy rates at the onset of a snow storm make short work of warm ground temps, there is a ton of variables. I was living in Maryland at one point and the temps had held steady in the 60s for a week or so, very heavy snowfall in the period of an hour and it was game over, even with marginal temps (think it was around 30) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 This will be an unusual event as far as days leading into the potential snow. About as close as I can remember right off the bat was March into April 1987. Temps were 68-77 for highs from around March 20th to March 31st. It did get cold a couple days before the snow hit. However the day of the snow was 50 for the high. Temps crashed that afternoon and heavy rain changed to heavy snow and 8-12 inches fell in the area. I don't know if we will see those dynamics with this system but that was huge silver dollar sized flakes that just ripped down for several hours. It coated the ground quickly. We had about 2 or 3 inches in a late April event that was similar as far as heavy rates quickly overcoming ground temps. Rates basically trump all. Especially with a lower sun angle or at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 This image from the 0z RGEM speaks volumes...back that center up 50 miles and those type of returns, would be crazy. (0z RGEM looks good regardless) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, TellicoWx said: This image from the 0z RGEM speaks volumes...back that center up 50 miles and those type of returns, would be crazy. (0z RGEM looks good regardless) With the trends that have been taking place I would almost expect that to be the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 0z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 That's insane rates along the NC/VA border on the 0z GFS...pegs pivotal out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 0z GFS held serve 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 These models have to be off….right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 RAP keeps getting better….epically better. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Tonight's power snowball numbers (for my town) 8, 8, 7, 6, 8, 9 (inches per each models 0z run)...I will like to cashout with 50% of those please lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Tonight's power snowball numbers (for my town) 8, 8, 7, 6, 8, 9 (inches per each models 0z run)...I will like to cashout with 50% of those please lol I recently moved to Seymour…I think I see a double digit paint job on recent runs . Not getting that but Ill take whatever flakes Mother Nature provides 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 0z CMC...(basically cut and paste every other 0z model and you will get the same result) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Forgot one....0z GEFS mean 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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