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TIMS model verification, December 31, 2021 - January 3, 2022


Holston_River_Rambler
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1 minute ago, tnweathernut said:

Might be some of the quickest hitting and heaviest snow modeled for northeast TN I have ever seen. The northeast TN mountains seem to be getting the pivot and low pass almost perfectly.

Was just saying the same thing...hrrr is deepening at the perfect time, slowing the flow...if it plays out this way, the wind generated will be another big story combined with the heavy wet snow.

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1 minute ago, Dsty2001 said:

I mean it would seem there is some pretty good model agreement that there will be some accumulating snow, MRX still seems shy to pull the trigger on any watches/advisories.  This is within the next 24-36hr correct?

I think the conundrum they face is wrt travel impacts. That’s what their products are really for, while people like me at least are chasing just heavy snow on radar and deck pics. It’ll be interesting to see how the roads hold up after such warm weather. 

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4 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

I mean it would seem there is some pretty good model agreement that there will be some accumulating snow, MRX still seems shy to pull the trigger on any watches/advisories.  This is within the next 24-36hr correct?

I think the conundrum they face is wrt travel impacts. That’s what their products are really for, while people like me at least are chasing just heavy snow on radar and deck pics. It’ll be interesting to see how the roads hold up after such warm weather. 

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1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think the conundrum they face is wrt travel impacts. That’s what their products are really for, while people like me at least are chasing just heavy snow on radar and deck pics. It’ll be interesting to see how the roads hold up after such warm weather. 

Any area that gets close to 32, combined with those rates and night time...will begin accumulating on any road surface 

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1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

If I had to make a call, I’d say travel at elevations above 2500 feet is no bueno tomorrow pm and overnight, but less certain below that elevation. 

Think if 0z holds course....mtns will get a WSW. Only way I see them pulling one for the valley would be for the Euro to line up completely with the rest of modeling. They prob. will differ to the morning shift, and wait for the full 6z suite for the valley.

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6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Any area that gets close to 32, combined with those rates and night time...will begin accumulating on any road surface 

And think that's fair. TBH I'm probably hand-wringing a little bit about it. 

I think there will be some micro climates come in to play tomorrow night that I've never gotten to see before, wrt the energy and slp track, and I'm pretty happy about that. 

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Just now, dwagner88 said:

Rates are going to be key. I’ve had 3 inches of wet snow accumulate at 34 degrees. It melted from the bottom up, but it made a quick mess of the roads. 

Agree, once go below 34 is where I start watching the roadways. Seen plenty times where shaded areas especially begin accumulating. Heavy rates/night (lack of solar radiation) = slush, which just speeds up the process of the asphalt cooling.

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Feel free to correct if I don't have a good idea, but am curious to see how much of 5-6 inches of snow as modeled by NAM/HRRR would actually stick and accumulate. I'm expecting at most a dusting here in Sevier County. I don't have a great idea of how fast soil temperature falls with snow, etc. Overall, am hoping for a nice little event here and hopefully an appetizer for later this week.

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