PowellVolz Posted June 12, 2023 Share Posted June 12, 2023 Obviously everyone knows Ryan Hall but I’ve paid good attention to his experimental tornado forecasts on twitter. Typically his forecasts are more aggressive than the SPC but I feel like he verifies well. Yesterday his forecast was much more aggressive than SPC and his outlook called a 15% props in ETn north of 40 into SE Kentucky while the SPC went 2%. Here’s his Twitter link if anyone is interested. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 I think I follow Nadocast. It can get carried away, but it also gets things like Plateau magic. Can I say magic? Nobody got hurt. I did not know Ryan runs it though, haha! Just another tool either way. Thanks @John1122 for the reports Sunday. Glad you and yours are well. Nice pics @PowellVolz and @Holston_River_Rambler showing up the Mid-South with action in scenic East Tenn. I'm fairly confident the Cumberland Plateau over-achieves with tornadoes because it's elevated, which gets it greater low-level inflow. Wind typically increases with height. With the exception of a few areas of (scenic) bonus relief the Plateau is relatively flat compared to say the Mountains. I believe Alabama's Sand Mountain (more a plateau) gets the same effect. Areas of upslope likely play a role too. Any of the above increases local storm relative helicity SRH / low level shear LLS. Main reason chasers pick boundaries is due to greater SRH and LLS. Terrain does the same thing. High Plains chasers love terrain plays like the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa, which also increase SRH/LLS. Palmer is also associated with the Denver Cyclone DCVZ. I'm not sure the Cumberland Plateau has anything like the DCVZ, but I believe the Plateau gets greater SRH/LLS. Combine boundary with terrain, and odds increase. If a boundary is over the Plateau, it may go! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 I think I follow Nadocast. It can get carried away, but it also gets things like Plateau magic. Can I say magic? Nobody got hurt. I did not know Ryan runs it though, haha! Just another tool either way. Thanks [mention=499]John1122[/mention] for the reports Sunday. Glad you and yours are well. Nice pics [mention=14393]PowellVolz[/mention] and [mention=16126]Holston_River_Rambler[/mention] showing up the Mid-South with action in scenic East Tenn. I'm fairly confident the Cumberland Plateau over-achieves with tornadoes because it's elevated, which gets it greater low-level inflow. Wind typically increases with height. With the exception of a few areas of (scenic) bonus relief the Plateau is relatively flat compared to say the Mountains. I believe Alabama's Sand Mountain (more a plateau) gets the same effect. Areas of upslope likely play a role too. Any of the above increases local storm relative helicity SRH / low level shear LLS. Main reason chasers pick boundaries is due to greater SRH and LLS. Terrain does the same thing. High Plains chasers love terrain plays like the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa, which also increase SRH/LLS. Palmer is also associated with the Denver Cyclone DCVZ. I'm not sure the Cumberland Plateau has anything like the DCVZ, but I believe the Plateau gets greater SRH/LLS. Combine boundary with terrain, and odds increase. If a boundary is over the Plateau, it may go!Just to clarify… I can’t say 100% it’s “tornado forecast” but he promotes it like it’s his. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 WBIR has video of two...one near Crossville and another in Fentress. Just looking at those, we were very fortunate not to see worse outcomes. https://www.wbir.com/article/weather/severe-weather/severe-storms-damage-tornado-tennessee/51-f6c76c20-cfa9-4a47-9f86-32fcae2e9108I’m kinda surprised the Fentress Co tornado was just a EF1 considering how the CC drop looked. Obviously that area isn’t the greatest for radar coverage but I thought we might have a significant tornado on the ground at one point. Even after the tornado lifted, you could see the debris fan out to the NE in the cell. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 MD #1035 for central Alabama Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1035 (noaa.gov) kind of leaves the door open for a couple rotating storms. I would say the southern outflow boundary (green) has the most locally enhanced SRH. Northern OFB (yellow) has less direct access to the LLJ. Southern OFB also has better wind barb kinks. I used surface chart wind barbs and dewpoints along with visible satellite to place those outflow boundaries. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted June 15, 2023 Share Posted June 15, 2023 A friend posted these from the storms Sunday. This is looking North towards my area from the LaFollette area. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted June 19, 2023 Share Posted June 19, 2023 Storm just north of me wasn’t severe but man it looked ominous. Beautiful structure with a scud. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted June 20, 2023 Share Posted June 20, 2023 Wow!!!!!. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 22, 2023 Share Posted June 22, 2023 Monday the cells had slight rotation due lingering winds turning with height. Fortunately the turning was not enough, and the speed shear was weaker than on Sunday. I was doing time-lapse towering Cu just for fun near Chattanooga, and discerned some turn but only with the speed-up. It was weak, but still fun to time-lapse. This picture is actually on Tuesday. If you know the area, I was at the I-75 interchange with East Brainerd Rd. Bargain Hut parking lot offers a little perch for viewing, if one does not mind the power lines. The view is not nearly as far and wide as from US Express, but BH was on my way already. I was not chasing, but yeah I stopped for the tail-cloud like feature. No rotation was observed, at least not in real-time. Due to time constraints, I could not do a suitable time-lapse. Too cool for severe and the heavy shower didn't have lightning either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 23, 2023 Author Share Posted June 23, 2023 Should have a chance for some strong storms Sunday into the evening,Lower levels look crappish right now with the LP heading towards the lakes,but still a good chance for a good light show,wind and possibly hail here somewhere..Probably best to see what the models show tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 @PowellVolz, you are getting credit for this (VQ post). Jax you mentioned this yesterday. Decently strong signal for severe wx tomorrow into Monday(looks like night time). This just came out this afternoon. Jax and Jeff, feel free to add content. I am just posting the graphic. I hate hail - especially very large hail. After 25K in damage several years ago(new roof, two cars mashed up), I want no part of that. May look at putting some cars in the parking garage if this is legit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 I had a new roof out on not to long ago. Would hate for hail to damage the roof, vehicles & plants. The freeze in December was bad enough in doing damage to nature. Expensive fall already coming for me to replace many shrubs & trees. I would rather not add roof or vehicles to that list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 HRRR really wants to put some 50-70 mph wind gusts in our neck of the woods today/tonight. Northern plateau looks like it could rough, but I'm a little concerned down here on Waldens Ridge too. Round 1 (early afternoon) Round 2 (early Monday AM) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 25, 2023 Author Share Posted June 25, 2023 Cams keep showing a potential MCS later on around Ark/Mid South.Earlier models showed more rain here but that never happened or is going to seemingly.Best chance for strong stroms here seems like early evening but there is a cap at the start seemingly but the 3capes are on the rise, dunno.This system is more in Jeffs league,looks complex to me.Might be best to wait and see the afternoon model runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Looking at SPC's latest guidance, it appears middle TN is going to be spared the worst of the action. Straight-line winds may be an issue but the large hail/tornado risk will stay to our north apparently. At this time yesterday, northern middle looked like it was more under the gun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 The current line in Kentucky may make it to the Valley/Knoxville area after lunch if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 467 ACUS11 KWNS 251531SWOMCDSPC MCD 251530 TNZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-251730-Mesoscale Discussion 1251NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK1030 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023Areas affected...Portions of far southern KY...middle/easternTN...western NC...and extreme southwestern VAConcerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251530Z - 251730ZProbability of Watch Issuance...40 percentSUMMARY...The threat for scattered damaging winds may graduallyincrease over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance is possible.DISCUSSION...A small cluster of convection is ongoing late thismorning across parts of south-central KY into middle TN. Thisactivity is loosely tied to thunderstorms that occurred overnightand early this morning across the Upper Midwest. Well-below-severewind gusts have been observed at various ASOS and KY Mesonet sitesover the past hour or so, suggesting that the stronger velocitiesnoted on area radars are not yet reaching the surface. The 12Zobserved sounding from BNA shows a rich low-level airmass already inplace across middle TN, with mid 60s surface dewpoints and 14 g/kgmean mixing ratio. A similar boundary-layer moisture profile willalso exist across eastern TN and vicinity, downstream of the ongoingthunderstorms.As daytime heating warms surface temperatures into the 80s acrossthis area over the next couple of hours, destabilization and erosionof lingering MLCIN should quickly occur. MLCAPE exceeding 1000-1500J/kg seems increasingly likely by 17Z, and convection may becomesurface based by early afternoon. Although details regardingconvective evolution remain uncertain, there appears to be somepotential for ongoing thunderstorms to consolidate into a looselyorganized cluster while spreading east-southeastward across easternTN and vicinity this afternoon. A veering boundary-layer windprofile observed on recent KOHX VWPs, and westerly windsstrengthening with height through mid levels, will foster around25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, aiding in some convectiveorganization. Steepening low-level lapse rates ahead of the possiblecluster should allow for a more efficient transfer of strong/gustywinds with downdrafts to the surface with time. Scattered damagingwinds may become an increasing concern through the early afternoon,and isolated severe hail may occur with any supercell that canform/persist on the southwest flank of the cluster. While notimmediately likely, observational trends will be monitored forpossible watch issuance by early afternoon...Gleason/Grams.. 06/25/2023...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...LAT...LON 35038500 35188572 35738629 36348604 36858546 36968483 36888375 36718292 36468239 36178215 35778226 35458252 35168292 34998370 35038500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 The morning round seems to be overproducing in east TN. Curious how meso boundaries will set up for the later round. That may be a key player for the Enhanced Risk areas in the middle TN RVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 25, 2023 Author Share Posted June 25, 2023 3 hours ago, *Flash* said: Looking at SPC's latest guidance, it appears middle TN is going to be spared the worst of the action. Straight-line winds may be an issue but the large hail/tornado risk will stay to our north apparently. At this time yesterday, northern middle looked like it was more under the gun. Yeah SPC FINALLY put a 10 % tornado into Kentucky,i might have went more south into KY,i'm not sure what is still going to happen here,still seems like a cap will be in place into the early evening,same as into Ky but they still have much better 3capes that should over ride that cap into the evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Looking like I24 East will get todays rain & storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 14 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Looking like I24 East will get todays rain & storms. 17z HRRR is a hair west of 16z with the precip shield. We'll see if the primary axis is I-24 east or along I-24 and east. At this point, I'll gladly take some wattery severe storm or no severe storm. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2023062517&fh=13&r=us_ov&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 MCS’s are so hard to predict their path but some of the latest CAM’s show more of a supercell look to them. I agree with @jaxjagman that the tornado threat should be a little more south into MTn. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 I know the atmosphere has been turned over in ETn but If a well established MCS develops, it’s forward progress will maintain itself through ETn before it’s updraft is choked off. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 Sun is out in Knoxville and we are pushing 80 degrees . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted June 25, 2023 Share Posted June 25, 2023 It’s 93 here. Have had no rain or storms in Murfreesboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Not liking the fact that MRX is highlighting an increased hail threat in their afternoon AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 I don’t see much at all for the midstate in chances of storms & rain. Maybe 10-20% chance of isolated storm tonight. Looks like next chance is Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted June 26, 2023 Author Share Posted June 26, 2023 meh,oretty boring,seems like the cap was strong enough here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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